@Joe Splitrock
I have read thoroughly your detailed explanation, and while you indeed raised few valid points, I think that you have missed 2 major points which turn this BFF strategy into a powerful one.
The first is that in this strategy you usually seller finance the property to the borrower in ~20-25%% higher price than what you might sell it in ordinary way. This is because the borrower is willing to do that in order to be able to buy it with mortgage he can't get out of the bank, and as long as his monthly return is less than rent it is a win-win situation.
Of course, as always, the point here is to be able to acquire the property in less than its market value (for example - buying a property in reasonable shape, put a small rehab in it and increase by that its value) to have more protection and profit.
The second, and more important point, is the power of Spitzer loan.
According to Spitzer, taking $100K, for 360 terms, per 10% interest (reasonable rate in seller financing deals), the monthly return is $877.57.
So, after 24 months (and I assume you will agree that a buyer who put 15% down payment will do all efforts to pay at least his first payments) you got back $21,060.
But, thank to dear Spitzer, do you know what will be the loan balance after 2 years?
$98,830!!
Meaning, our dear borrower paid $19,900 as interest and only $1,700 as principal.
No doubt that thanks to this great guy Spitzer it is worth being the bank (-:
(and indeed you rarely see banks loosing money (-:)
I can tell you that I owned few Duplex as buy & hold investments in Indy, and the 3 T (tenants, taxes, termites...you can add trash, toilets...) caused me to see how my 9% or 10% target return to turn into 4% or 5%.
Not mentioning occupancy problems and such.
And last point -
You have mentioned a point that reflect another advantage in this strategy - Every month you are getting back principal & interest, meaning, you decrease your investment amount, and you get your money back allowing you to re-invest in the another transactions (line buying another note every 2-2.5 years).
I can tell you that I have invested in multiply strategies in REI (done flips, had buy & hold) but I found the notes investment niche as the one the had the best potential-risk ratio, mainly because you have a property to guarantee your investment, and of course because you don't need to care about the 3T (Which cause you to earn more/invest less time in each investment).
You don't have such powerful guarantee in almost any other investment.
And seems your strategy is completely based on appreciation - While if you look at 100 years range, no doubt the real estate values greatly increased. But, what go up sometimes go down, sometimes strongly, sometimes for long period, and it might happen that after 10 or 15 years when you wan't to cash out your rentals, the current market condition will be that their value did not appreciate, or maybe even decreased.
I totally agree with your bottom line - I have read all thread from the beginning, and it is fascinating to see how each one has a different point of view and strategy, and maybe this is what so amazing in REI.
There are so many ways to make money in this investment niche.
And indeed this is a great discussion allowing all to re-think about the different strategies which exist and allow them to verify that the path the are going in is the most suitable for them.
Eran