Originally posted by @Robert Harpster:
Curious about realistic expectations for outcome of a performing note. Example - A note modified a year ago to lower payment and get borrower making regular payments again. New 15 year amortization at 10% and approx 165 payments remaining. LTV of 55%. P&I payment approx $425 per month.
In your experience, what is most likely scenario of this note? Borrower pays to end of note? Home is sold in 4-5 years and note paid-off? Borrower refinances to a lower rate after 4-5 years and pays-off? Borrower stops paying or falls behind again? Note holder sells the note after 1-2 years?
Just looking for thoughts based on past experiences.
I don't think there is "most likely scenario".
Each note has its own history, behavior and performance.
All of the scenarios you mentioned can happen and I run into all of them during the years I am investing in notes, and note status can change on daily basis (a borrower that is working, healthy or married today might change status tomorrow).
The tip I can give you is that when you are doing due diligence prior of investing, you should take worst case scenarios and check what will be your profit in such scenarios.
If you are well protected and have multiply exit strategies, you will be able to earn even in such scenarios, and of course earn much more in more optimal scenarios.
I can tell you 3 things about the note you mentioned -
- I like it is a medium term note (13.75 years, not the 20 or 30 years note)
- The LTV is very good, so you have good protection here
- I think I have read somewhere that statistically there is a higher chance that a note that have once been non-performing will become non-performing again in the future (not sure if this is correct).
Good luck,
Eran