Hi Billy,
The BP Podcasts are full of examples of people who survived the latest downturn (2008), and I've always found it interesting to hear the stories of investors from that period. Here are a few takeaways I've found, and maybe others will show more:
1) Both Flipping and Buy-and-Hold strategies become riskier. Flippers shoulder the greatest burden because of the higher interest rates they usually pay using hard money or private loans. While flippers can usually rehab their property before the interest rates eat into the overall bottom-line, the property may take many more months to sell if the market turns and the profit disappears. Buy-and-Hold investors fare better because they are less concerned about the immediate value of the home, but a downturn or recession (even a local one) often comes with job losses. When renters lose jobs, leases are terminated and houses go vacant for months; pushing landlords to lower rents and limiting profitability of the investment. As a result, investors all flock to auctions and foreclosures in an attempt to purchase recession-proof, bottom-dollar deals which they can still turn into a successful investment.
2) Note strategies remain a solid investment. Notes require up-front capital and are usually approached as a secondary strategy by real-estate investors. But in a market where many would-be homeowners cannot qualify for a traditional mortgage, notes can be helpful to the homebuyer as well as the note originator. The homebuyer gets to purchase a property, and the originator receives a significant return on investment (perhaps 6-10%) with no upkeep responsibilities. If the homebuyer becomes unable to pay the mortgage, the property is eventually repossessed by the note originator. Alternatively, notes can also pay off early - including all the interest required for the full term - which can push the ROI even higher. With no renters to manage, and an uncertain job market actually helping the strategy, notes can be a good way to get through a market downturn.
3) Caution is rewarded. Investors who have diversified their assets beyond real estate into retirement accounts which include a significant portion of bonds will fare better than those with overleveraged debt and nothing in the bank. Cash reserves can accommodate periods of vacancy, and properties which had significant cash flow in the beginning will probably retain some cash flow even in a down market. Properties which were risky even before the downturn – with negative cash flow or dependence on market appreciation for profitability – will hurt investors’ chances of surviving the downturn with all assets intact.
A few examples of people who seem to have good strategies for a market in flux:
Show 2 with Karen Rittenhouse on “subject-to” deals, which seems like an excellent strategy in a market where homeowners may have just lost their jobs and can’t afford their mortgage, but want to stay in their house
Show 19 with Tracy Royce, discussing short sale strategies in great detail. She makes a great case for understanding the local market and solving peoples’ problems.
Show 28 with Dave Van Horn, which had a very useful summary of note investing
