Originally posted by @Ryan Rogers:
@Dominic Jones
Thanks Dominic, in my opinion it seems like taking a deal with negative cash flow to start maybe worth doing the deal. Seemly appreciation historical rises in large cities with inflation and high demand. Hense paying down the asset for long term net worth and potential to cash flow much later on.
Anyother thoughts on this guys/ladies?
Thanks!
Yeah, Demand Appreciation can really be your secret to finding an ROI; however, you have to do your research as stated up above by the other posters in this thread.
You can look at the yearly statistics on appreciation in the boston areas and try to get as specific (neighborhood by neighborhood) that you can get with those stats. I'm not sure exactly where to look but that's what you'll want to look for.
When you get an appreciation percentage per year, you can easily apply that to the purchase price of the house that fits your buying criteria and get an estimated equity gain from demand appreciation.
You can also do some more in-depth research, house by house after solidfying your buying criteria for a house, then using the local MLS data to find previous sales on houses, calculate the difference in the sales prices and then "project" that appreciation number on your current deal / house that you're looking at. So even though you'll know you'll have negative x cash flow per year, you know that you should generally have about X amount of dollars next year or two years from now, b/c of demand appreciation.
That's a quick and dirty (n00b) look at demand appreciation and using it to help you decide if you should get into a negative cash flowing situation. I can send you some scans of sections that talk about demand appreciation on this book I'm reading about residential multi-family units. It has some good information on really picks apart the difference between demand appreciation and forced appreciation.
Forced appreciation, you can't calculate how I just suggested up above. You'll have to dig deeper to find out if the current owner did any renovating of the property before they listed it for sale, and how much they are asking for in relation to those renovations. The renovations cause the forced appreciation. So if I buy a house in your area for 500k, do about 25k worth of work to it and I'm now listing it for 600k, I'm estimating that my renovations added an additional 75k in equity for me (100k-25k spent on the renovations=75k equity gain). For home sellers in your area that aren't investors, and just lived in the house like "normal" people do, than there isn't any forced appreciation involved, the appreciation and the "current market value" needle would be pushed up only by demand appreciation alone.
Nevertheless, if this is your first deal, do you really want to bank on appreciation to get your ROI? You'll have to wait for at least a year to be able to cash in on those capital gains, while being able to cover the difference on your negative monthly cash flow (if you are cash flowing negatively). A lot to think about here... but I hope you all the best. Would love to know what you come up with. Keep in touch. Message me if you want me to scan those parts of the book I'm reading and send it to you. I can do that for you easy, no problem.