I feel that the probabilities are more fluid than what you have stated.
Most investors want at least a few face-to-face meetings before they will part with their funds. There is a HUGE trust factor you must consider - not only in getting an investor to work with you, but in their evaluation of your integrity and ability to perform. Your estimate of probability requires an honest evaluation on your part regarding the investor's evaluation of you. You have to constantly ask questions during the process to do the evaluation on your part. Once an investor is satisfied with the return and risk - they bet on you and your team's ability to perform.
Don't discount the issues with passive investors. Not only are they time intensive once they have provided funds - you may face some issues with the SEC. One way to potentially avoid this issue is to have a passive investor provide their funds via a mortgage on the property.
This business is not just about the financials - it is also people skills, building knowledge, and ability to act - not science but an art. Make sure that your people and sales skills meet the needs of investors.