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All Forum Posts by: Kevin H.

Kevin H. has started 10 posts and replied 45 times.

As a new guy around here, I just read the "Ultimate Beginners Guide" to real estate investment.  One thing I found during my reading was the 2% rule of thumb for evaluating properties.  This rule suggests that monthly rent from a property should be at (or above) 2% of the purchase price of the property.  The text gives some pretty clear and simple examples of how this rule is applied, which demonstrates that I understand what it's suggesting.  I'll admit that it has a caveat in the text that this can be a difficult number to achieve, but I can't see getting even halfway there in my market.  

What I don't understand is where I find a property that would come close to meeting that criteria in the area where I live (suburban Denver).  For example, I think it's safe to say that the average property in my neighborhood is priced between $240-290K at the moment.  These properties appear to carry average rental rates of $1300-2000K per month ($1500-1800/mo being most common).  

So, even if we looked at the lower end of the price range (say $240k) and the higher end of the rental range (say $2k/mo), we'd still only have a 0.8% number, which is a far cry from the "2% rule".

Should I take this to mean that the properties in this area simply aren't a good value for rental income, or should I assume that there is a problem in applying such a guideline to homes in an area that is priced like Denver?  Obviously I realize that this is just a simple rule-of-thumb, but I couldn't help but notice that I can't identify any properties meeting this criteria right form the very outset.  

In a quick search online the cheapest single family home I found around my immediate area is priced at $174K.  It's smaller than my own home, and pretty outdated.  If I had to take an educated guess, it would rent for $1300-1500/mo, at most.  Even at the high end of that rental range we're still only looking at 0.86%, which is similar to the example I provided above for the "typical" property around here.  

So, where does one go to find a property that falls within the 2% rule in a market like this?  Even in the undesirable areas of Denver I can't picture finding a $100K property that would rent for $2,000/mo.  Of course, that's why I'm asking for advice from experts like all of you!  ;) 

Post: I've got a decent financial start, but where do I make the money?

Kevin H.Posted
  • Arvada, CO
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 30
Originally posted by @Jon Holdman:

Renting your existing house may or may not be a good deal.  You mention $1500 in rent, but say nothing about what its worth.  Assuming its in Arvada, I'd guess its value is well north of $150K.  I've looked in Arvada for rentals and nothing there meets my criteria.  Admittedly my criteria are tougher than many investors, but even fairly liberal critera can't be met in our area.  At this time its nearly impossible to find any profitable rentals anywhere around here.  Pueblo, maybe.  I wish I'd have been able to buy two dozen rentals back in 2007-2010 instead of just two.

So, while you can make money buying a rental here with cash, your actual returns are going to be pretty low.  Some might say there's good appreciation potential.  Certainly that has happened in the last few years.  But I'm concerned we're approaching bubble-ness.  LOTS and LOTS of new construction here now.  Much of it apartments.  That is a huge change from five years ago when there was little construction at all and none of it in apartments.  As those units come online, supply increases.  That will ease some of the current pressure on rents.  If you spend $200K on a house here and get $1800 a month in rent, and account for all expenses including a PM, you would net about $10,800 a year.  That's a 5.4% cash on cash return.  Too low, IMHO, for rentals.  Leverage will help, but its still not a great deal.  Self managing would allow you to earn the PM's cut, which improves your returns.  But you're really "buying a job" to earn that piece.  That's not bad, as its a pretty easy job that generates a pretty good paycheck.

I wish I knew what to tell you to do because I'd go do it, too.

Thank you to everyone for all of the helpful replies!  I've definitely got some information to sort through and absorb at the moment, and I look forward to some further exploration of my various options.

@John Holdman:

You seem to see our current market very much as I do, and have mentioned a few of the concerns I am thinking about at the moment.  Prices have appreciated quite a bit in my neighborhood in the past year, which is great from the perspective of the home I currently own.  But, I don't get the sense that this is a great time to go running out to buy a bunch of other nearby properties as future rentals (buy high sell low never sounded quite right to me).  

My neighbors work for a local property management company, and they've been told to expect about $1,800 on income from a rental in our neighborhood (at one point they were considering renting their own home).  Based on what I've seen around here, I'd guess the revenue from a rental would fall in the $1,500-1,800/mo range.  The home I currently own would probably sell between $270-280K, based on comps.  

As you mentioned, there's a lot of building going on, especially on the west end of Arvada. I suppose part of the hesitation I have toward acquiring other investment properties at the moment is that I also get the feeling that we're a bit bubbly right now… of course, I could certainly be wrong!  I will say that the available inventory around here is pretty low, and some places are getting multiple offers (certainly not bottom-of-the-market behavior).  My better half has a coworker who has been trying to move to our area from Bailey, and she has lost bidding wars on two properties in the past month.  Admittedly, I know nothing about those properties, other than that they were located pretty close to where we live.  And, while that is merely one anecdotal report of turbulent waters, it is still enough to raise an eyebrow for me.    

Those factors, among others, are probably why I'm very cautiously wading into the real estate investment arena.  I won't ignore the fact that there are some compelling arguments for leveraging myself a bit, and I certainly wouldn't mind building a real estate "empire" that would someday free me from the umbilical cord of my current career (as much as I enjoy my regular job, I also value financial freedom).  But, I don't want to foolishly jump into this game with the arrogant assumption that I'm smarter than I really am, and thereby get burned badly right from the start.  I guess I see it is a crawl, walk, run approach, as others have mentioned! 

In retrospect I probably should have made some moves or leveraged myself during the last crash, but I wasn't at a good point to feel comfortable doing so at the time.  If we currently had the market we had in 2009-10, I'd probably be making some moves on properties at the moment.  Instead, I find myself sitting on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity.  But, as experts have often said in the past, trying to time the market can also be a losing proposition for the average investor.  But, buying at the top of the market is also quite dangerous to one's financial security.   

Post: I've got a decent financial start, but where do I make the money?

Kevin H.Posted
  • Arvada, CO
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 30

Hmmm…   maybe it's just me, but I don't currently see my post, just my title.

Post: I've got a decent financial start, but where do I make the money?

Kevin H.Posted
  • Arvada, CO
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 30

Hello everyone!  This is my first "real" post around here, and I look forward to seeing what all of you would suggest for someone starting out in this business from my position: 

I'm in my mid-thirties, and I'm in a pretty healthy financial position compared to many of my peers.  I work in an industry that is completely unrelated to real estate, and I make a healthy income that would probably be considered upper middle class (though I'm by no means rich).  I have my home paid off, no debt, and we have approximately $100K in cash in the bank between myself and my fiancé.  I'm employed in a government job, which carries a healthy pension with full retirement at age 55.

We arrived at our current position without the original intention of becoming investors.  We were both quite frugal with our money early on, having lived through a couple of serious recessions in the time since we finished college.  We took the boring and secure approach of paying down our home, and eventually paid the place off about a year ago.  Since that time we've been saving cash.  We recently came to the realization that our cash "reserve" is getting fairly large, and it's being underutilized  in a bank account, where it's only losing value against inflation.  

We've debated a few options at this point, and we're both pretty conservative with our desire to explore the fringes of risk.  We both feel more comfortable in real estate than we do in the stock market, but it's really hard to decide where to go at this point.  

Here are a few of the options we're exploring around the dinner table:

1) Buy the upgraded home we've been considering, and use some of our cash to place a downpayment on that property of at least 20%.  We would then rent out our free-and-clear property, which  would probably pull between $1,500-1800/month in rent, based on what we've seen locally.  We'd then use a combination of the rental income and our salaries to pay down the mortgage on the next place, and move on from there eventually.  At least the mortgage interest on the new place would be tax deductible as a primary residence, and we would get a lower mortgage rate on the new property as an "owner occupied" residence.  In a few years we could have a couple of paid-off properties, and build our portfolio from there.   

2) Continue to live in our current home, and put our cash toward a down payment on a rental property.  From what I've seen it's really hard to touch a single family home or duplex in this area for under $250K (at least in decent condition), and the condo market seems a bit saturated to me.  But, we could easily put 20% down on an income property if we took this approach, while saving $50K for a reserve, and presumably rent that place with a positive cash flow.  Of course, we lose the mortgage interest tax deduction, and will probably have a higher mortgage rate as a result of it being a non-owner occupied property (though I can't say how much higher that rate will be). 

3) We could continue to save cash, and likely buy an investment/rental property outright in another year or two (at the most).  We'd then have the advantage of not spending any money on a mortgage, and therefore be able to earn more income from the property each month.  Of course, that means leaving a large some of cash in the bank for another year or two, which is earning virtually nothing to offset inflation.  It also means that we're going to potentially pay at least 5% more for the property we acquire, since the Denver market seems to be continuing to grow, and increase in price.  

I'll admit that we're both intrigued by the first option, as we've seen a few places we wouldn't mind living ourselves.  We also believe that our current home is likely to appreciate favorably in the next few years. 

You'll also surely note that none of the potential paths I mentioned involve using very much leverage.  I'll admit that there are some clear advantages to leveraging ourselves a bit, but I'm also pretty leery of doing so (I guess I'm more risk-averse than most).  Simply put, we've seen a lot of friends go through hard financial times in the past few years, and don't want to toss away the security we've worked so hard to earn over the past few years.  Nevertheless, we do want to provide ourselves with the best future possible, and we're starting this venture with a better profile than most of our peers:  good income, decent amount of cash on hand, a paid-off house, and excellent credit.  

So, if you were me (us), where would you start? 

Thanks in advance for any advice!

Post: Hello from Colorado!

Kevin H.Posted
  • Arvada, CO
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 30

Just thought I'd drop in and say hello.  As my screen name implies, I'm a Coloradan.  I found my way to this forum due to my interest in becoming involved in real estate investments in the future.  I look forward to talking with all of you! 

-Kevin