@Chris Jones @Ryan Landis @Joe Bertolino
Great discussion, gentlemen. I thought I'd offer my two cents as my wife and I have been plugged into the San Jose market for the last 6 months as we have been heavily scouring the area for a primary residence. In addition, we've been in consistent contact with several RE professionals associated with the industry including agents, lenders, etc. Based on our interactions with these professionals, as well as our findings via personal research, we've learned that the market has slowed in the San Jose are more than expected since this past summer. House hunting this past summer has offered us some great learning opportunities about the bay area RE scene. One of which was that during this past summer season (June, specifically) the RE market was hotter than anticipated (referencing the input from our RE associates). In fact, a house we were going to bid on was listed for $599K in San Jose and had over 10 bids on it within 12 hours of being on the market. Each of these bids were $700K+, most of which were all cash, no contingencies. In fact, all of the properties we were watching from June - Aug were traded for higher than asking. All things considered, that's indicative of an inflated market by my opinion. Also, during this past summer our rent (apt complex) increased by $500/month for a year lease. Could these circumstances have been the manifestation of the high water mark for RE in the San Jose area? That's what we've been discussing for the past several weeks.
Fast forward to current market conditions. The current market is cooler than expected. Not only is inventory down, but 100% of the homes listed are no longer being traded for inflated prices. In fact, several properties that we've been watching have sold for considerably less than the original asking price, which was a bit surprising. In addition, our apt. complex is experiencing slightly higher vacancy at this time. Did the increased rents over the summer have an unforeseen negative impact on current vacancy?
The question remains, is this trend just a normal seasonal slow down, or is the bay area RE market in decline overall? Although everyone can offer their own opinions, I think its only fair to compare y-o-y scenarios before we have a true understanding of the pulse of the market, at least in San Jose. In other words, I think we'll need to wait until next summer to draw an accurate conclusion about San Jose RE market trend.
@Sean OToole
You mentioned you have a diagram regarding this context. Is this diagram available online?