All Forum Posts by: Chris Evans

Welcome Josh!

You're making the smart move. I'd also be happy to share some of my insight with you. My wife and I started in Athens back in 2008 and are now in Marietta. We're very familiar with the different markets in GA and would be happy to connect. I'll send you a dm with my info. 

Hi Y'all, 

My real estate journey began in 2008 when my wife and I bought our first home at the age of 21. Since then, we've expanded our portfolio to include commercial, single, and multi-family properties in both Georgia and Alaska.

I've recently joined the Bigger Pockets network as a partner agent with BP because my passion has always been advisory services. I am a former stockbroker (Series 7, 66) who moved to real estate in 2010. My wife and I own both a residential and a commercial firm based in Georgia where I am the Principal Broker.

Using my background in investment advisory, I do assist investors with crafting a portfolio based on risks, objectives, and budget which models projected cash flows and debt structure to help plan for retirement. Then I assist with the acquisition of the right properties to build the portfolio over time.  

I'm looking forward to discussing advanced strategies, and economic forecasts. Hopefully, I'll be able to add some of the insights I've gained over the years.

If you have any questions or want to talk shop, please don't hesitate to reach out. 

Looking forward to connecting with you all!

Great post, Scott!

The current residential market is relatively predictable due to a few key factors. New household formations have outpaced new construction starts in seven of the past eight years (source: MBS Highway). The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates a shortage of 6.5 million single-family residential (SFR) homes nationwide. Factoring in the multifamily construction boom over the last five years, the total inventory shortage stands at around 2.5 million housing units (NAR).

Rate-based restrictions are causing buyers to wait on the sidelines. Mortgage rates are about 100 basis points higher than historical margins over the past 50 years which is due to lenders anticipating shorter loan periods before refinancing. As the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in inflation, the margin will likely decrease, prompting more buyers to enter the market.

Over the last 80 years, the residential real estate market has experienced negative growth in six years and zero growth in one year (MBS Highway). Notably, five of those negative growth years occurred during the 2008-2012 Global Financial Crisis. Given this historical context, it's reasonable to expect a flat growth curve through any downturn, followed by increased prices and demand.

A significant factor to consider for both residential and commercial markets is the amount of equity in properties. Less than 1% of U.S. mortgages are variable, and average home equity is at an all-time high. This suggests a strong residential market that is likely to persist.

In the commercial sector, many properties also have substantial equity. However, larger Class A operations are often over-leveraged, with valuations based on pre-pandemic occupancy and cash flow. Increased vacancy rates have led to reduced cash flow and property values. For example, a mall in Georgia currently has $90 million in debt servicing and a valuation of approximately $40 million.

Many large enterprises with billions in assets employ credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against risks like these. While banks may recognize the potential hazards, it's impossible to determine how many have mitigated risks elsewhere in their books. Consequently, the situation could be dire, but it may not be as severe as it appears. Meridian published an insightful article on CDS in commercial real estate last year:https://www.meridiancapital.co...

Welcome Joshua!

I have been training agents and managing a brokerage for quite some time now, and I've noticed that many new agents often fall prey to avoidable pitfalls. I’ve found the following pieces of advice to be key to new agent success:

- Develop a solid plan and stick to it. Create a business plan that works for you and commit to it. Many agents begin with a lead program, their sphere of influence (SOI), or a combination of tactics, only to abandon them after 3-6 months. Avoid pivoting in your first year unless necessary, as changes in your business plan, brokerage, or location can halt your momentum.

- Understand and respect timelines. Most clients won't transact until 6-12 months after providing their information. You will likely need to work an additional 2-3 months to develop and hone the proper skill set and nurture campaigns for each program. It's crucial to be patient and allow for the proper nurturing time. Consistently switching strategies, such as from Facebook leads to cold calling, restarts the learning curve, and hinders your progress. Instead, A/B test everything and work to improve, not abandon.

- Consistency is key. How you handle one task reflects is how you handle everything. For example, if your database cannot rely on you for timely newsletters, they likely won't trust you with their financial decisions. I recommend "The Compound Effect" by Darren Hardy and "The Talent Code" by Daniel Coyle.

- Consider joining a team for 1-3 years. This experience allows you to learn from their methods, build your business with their leads, and ask for referrals to expand your network. Analyze what the team does well and identify areas for improvement that you can implement in your biz when you go solo.

- Show results before asking your SOI for business. People want to be part of a success story, and they will likely observe you from a distance initially. Demonstrate your achievements before reaching out to your SOI to increase your conversion rates. Asking for business after a few successful deals communicates confidence and capability, whereas asking without experience may come across as desperation.

Hope this helps. Good luck!

PS. The Inman news conferences have been great places to get outside of industry groupthink. They bring thousands of agents together from all different RE brands. I'd encourage you to check them out. 

I utilize my multi-state license to broker commercial real estate (CRE) in multiple states. This aspect of the industry tends to have fewer regional restrictions because a buyer might express a need for a data center in the Southeast, for example. In such cases, they are less likely to be concerned with the property being exclusively in Georgia and more likely to focus on specific criteria related to the property, ease of travel, and hiring opportunities.

We work closely with a commercial and residential company out of Charleston. They're on the "we've developed most of the area" scale. If you're serious, I'd be happy to talk to you and see if an intro is worth it. 

Welcome to the industry. As someone deeply involved in this field, I must admit my bias when I say that this is truly the finest industry one can be a part of. Your clear passion and belief in your "Why" is spot-on, and it's something that resonates with both people and principles. I commend you for meticulously planning your jump into this field before taking any action. Many individuals enter without proper planning and end up failing.

Although I may not operate in your specific market, I did have the privilege of interviewing an exceptional agent who has built a tremendously successful career in Texas. I'd highly recommend checking out my podcast episode with Maribel Ramos. She serves as an outstanding example of what can be achieved in this industry, and she shares valuable insights into the steps she took to attain success in the Texas market. Here's the link to the episode.

I wish you the very best on your journey ahead!