Hi Tom,
I think the answer really depends on your overall goals. Notes of course do not appreciate like real estate, nor do they provide any real tax advantages or deductions outside of normal business expenses. For protection, equity is king. Having sufficient equity to ride out a financial downturn is important but you would be surprised at the amount of "emotional equity" people have to their homes, even when underwater. Just because something is underwater does not mean the borrowers will choose to walk away. Far from it in most cases.
Purchasing depends largely on what yield the investor is comfortable with. Discount is not as important. Don't get me wrong, discount does play a factor, but the main thing most investors are focused on is the yield, the interest your money is earning annually if the borrower pays to term as agreed.
Regarding a discount, and how much should it be, well this depends. Lets use an example.
- UPB: $80,000
- Rate: 3%
- Term: 360
- Payment: $338.09
Lets say you as an investor need a 11% yield on this note. You will need to purchase at $35,194.02. The difference between the purchase price and the UPB on the loan is your discount.
Now let's use another example:
- UPB: $80,000
- Rate: 7%
- Term: 360
- Payment: $535.20
To receive an 11% yield on this loan, you would pay $55,712.47 as the purchase price.
I say all this to mean that the discount is not the item to focus on, the yield is. Discount is nice but can fluctuate wildly based on the loan rate, terms and more.
To answer your question you can definitely invest in discounted notes to hedge your losses in a downturn. Is it foolproof? Definitely not, as with all investing. But you can significantly reduce your exposure to negative events.
BTW I am located in Austin. Feel free to reach out when you are in town!
- Josh