@Carl Ohai I was involved in a JV with an extremely large and successful brokerage in Omaha a few years ago. they had done a national survey to try to get a handle on conversion rates, defined as closed sales divided by raw incoming leads.
While Zillow, Trulia and Realtor will not guarantee anything in terms of conversion, more than once I've heard statements like "if we got you 100 leads, do you think you could close 5 of them?" That suggests a 5% conversion rate.
The results of my JV partner's survey said that the real conversion rates were between 0.5% and 1%. One close for every 100 to 200 raw leads.
A lot of this has to do with the evolution of the business over the last 20 years. When we bought our home in 1985, we put on some decent clothes, drove an hour to the broker's office, knocked on the door and said "Hi mister. We want to buy a house. Can you help us?" At which point, we sat down to look through a huge MLS book where all of the data lived. We were already committed to buying by the time we walked through the door.
Now, with all of the MLS easily accessible, people are literally riding on the train, drinking at the bar or sitting on the toilet while they're flipping through homes on Zillow. They click that "I want more information" button and *poof* - they're a lead that probably cost about $30.00. They could be years away from a buying decision.
Worse, most of the leadgen programs on ZTR provide sales leads to 3 or more agents, so it becomes a "speed to lead" function. Several years ago, we were told to call leads back within a half hour. Now, that goal is to contact them in seconds, not minutes.
I did get pitched by Realtor on a lead program that would send leads exclusively to me. 1,180 leads/year, guaranteed. For the breathtaking price of $81,000. That's not a typo - $81,000. That could potentially be a reasonable investment if it weren't for the fact that buyers and sellers are probably also looking on Zillow, Trulia, C21, Coldwell Banker, RE/MAX, and a dozen other sites.
Competition definitely plays a major part in conversion rates. I can't tell you how many times I'm working on a lead and hear "I just found out that Aunt Jane's son's second cousin is a Realtor. I have to buy/sell through him."
According to my MLS, there are 99 real estate brokerages in my current town of Plymouth, MA. A mailing I got from Homelight said that there are 787 real estate agents in Plymouth.
I can't tell you how many times I'm working on a lead and hear "I just found out that Aunt Jane's son's second cousin is a Realtor. I have to buy/sell through him to keep peace in the family." When 1.4% of the town's population hold a real estate license, that's not much of a surprise.
We're about to relocate to China, Maine and I'm looking forward to what is probably less than 1/20th the competition.