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All Forum Posts by: Jordan L.

Jordan L. has started 11 posts and replied 50 times.

http://www.theintricatedesign.com/

Their website. I know nothing about decks. Seems ok.

So my renter's lease is up. He said that he has a friend who builds wooden decks professionally. He asked if they could build a deck in the backyard. Labor will be free, but he's asking me to pay for the materials. Don't know how much it'll cost. As a show of good will, I'm inclined to ok this depending the cost. I say, one month's rent sounds fair(1100k). Of course the friend has to show proof of having work comp insurance.

Post: Should I refi this property?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19

Current loan 6.125% 30 year fix finishing year 7 next month. Loan amount 119k. Principal/interest $857 per month. If I don’t refi and just keep paying the minimum, I will have paid $236,532.

I can refi at 5.125% 30 year fix. After fees, loan amount will be 125k. PI will be $606 per month. After 30 years, I will have paid $218,160.

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by Jeffrey K.:
I think everyone is missing the point here. I might have missed something but if he is not investing in his home city why not go to another place in the country where you can get a better deal on newer properties. I get letters every week from an outfit in florida (Harper Realty Inc.) trying to sell me houses that are a few years old for 50k that they claim they rent for 900. Why not try another state unless I missed something. I do not know anything about this company BTW but it is just an example.

That's a good idea and I've contemplated that. Where do you suggest would be a good place to start on deciding on a location and developing a relationship with a trustworthy property manager and a realtor?

As for the 2 properties I was eyeing, they both went pending yesterday, so the point is moot.

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by J Scott:
Originally posted by Jordan L.:

I don't think creating google and keeping your original primary property as a rental is comparable.

What we're disagreeing with is the fact that buying just ANY property today will result in the same run-up of equity in 30 years time. It may. Or it may not. And in the case where it doesn't you'd be much happier if you had cash flow to support holding those investments.

[b]But, just to have the property worth 4x as much in 30 years, you'd need about 5% per year in appreciation.

Most of us (and probably most economists) aren't convinced that we'll see 5% year-over-year for the next 30 years...

This was what I said about my RE investments:
"Now. I'm not expecting these types of returns. My investment growth expectations come from my mutual funds/stocks. I consider RE my inflation hedge(lock in low interest, creep up the rent as population and money supply grows, build equity with mortgage pay down, appreciation only considered as icing, but not expecting it)."

You're right about having cash flow to support a property. While it may be foolhardy and naive, I don't mind paying a premium and having less of a cash flow margin for a newer property.

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by J Scott:
Originally posted by Jordan L.:

I don't think creating google and keeping your original primary property as a rental is comparable.

I wasn't making that comparison. I was comparing someone who got lucky by buying a piece of property without knowing about investing and having it be worth a LOT, and someone who got lucky by taking a job at a unknown startup (for example, Google 10 years ago) and having his stock options be worth a LOT.

Both situations are very possible, but are not the norm...

What you need to realize about all the situations you described was the fact that all these people bought BEFORE the market run-up and the real estate bubble.

No one here is disagreeing that if you bought pretty much ANY property in 70s or 80's, you probably have a lot of equity by now, even with the drop in home prices the past few years.

What we're disagreeing with is the fact that buying just ANY property today will result in the same run-up of equity in 30 years time. It may. Or it may not. And in the case where it doesn't you'd be much happier if you had cash flow to support holding those investments.

[b]

But, just to have the property worth 4x as much in 30 years, you'd need about 5% per year in appreciation.

Most of us (and probably most economists) aren't convinced that we'll see 5% year-over-year for the next 30 years...

This is what I said about real estate in my last post:

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by J Scott:
Originally posted by Jordan L.:
I don't have the time to be this good.

I honestly hope that you succeed and make a lot of money in real estate. But, if in a few years, things are not going the way you expected, I hope you'll recall this statement and realize that you never really gave yourself a fighting chance...

Education and hard work are the keys to success, but they both take a good bit of time...


I'm trying to duplicate what my uncle did, just by a few multiples.

To me, this is equivalent to looking at someone who got a job working at Google back in 2002 and now has $100M and saying, "I just want to duplicate what he did...so I'm going to just get a job at a random startup so I can make millions as well..."

It doesn't work that way in 99% of the cases...


I don't think creating google and keeping your original primary property as a rental is comparable.

I think my experience in Southern California may be skewed. But my uncle's experience is not a 1/100 longshot. I have a whole slew of family examples having bought new and improved their wealth.

My parents and their friends are from Asia. They all immigrated here in the early 1970s. They could barely speak english and certainly weren't RE experts.

1. You know my 1st uncle's experience.
2. My god parents bought and moved twice over 20 years. They held on 2 homes as rental properties and after 25 years ended up with almost a million in equity and 5k in monthly cash flow.
3. My parents bought in 1975, but sold to upgrade. Had they held on to the 100k home, they'd have 650k in equity and 2800k extra in cash flow.
4. Another Aunt/uncle bought their home for 80k and bought an adjacent similar home. They have about 600k in equity and live off the rent from the 2nd home.
5. Another uncle bought a 4 plex. Don't know the equity or cash flow, but he's had it for decades, and from a financial point of view, he's the best one off.
6. My godfather's brother bought the house next to him. Don't know their cash flow, but their equity is well over a million dollars.
7. Another Uncle and Aunt bought a 8 unit apartment and held on. No cash flow for the 1st decade. Now they have a torrent of cashflow and bunch of equity. Enough to pay off their son's tuition to Stanford and Med school without having to bat an eye.

None of these examples are in the same city, all spread out in various southern california suburbs. No war zones. No buying and selling. They were all engineers, so hands on, they all had profit eating property managers and just held on.

Now. I'm not expecting these types of returns. My investment growth expectations come from my mutual funds/stocks. I consider RE my inflation hedge(lock in low interest, creep up the rent as population and money supply grows, build equity with mortgage pay down, appreciation only considered as icing, but not expecting it).

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by Mike M:
Since these homes were built in 2005, my guess is they originally sold for more than $500,000.00 and possibly up to $700,000.00.

Using the 50% rule, House one returns 4.7% and House two returns 4.6% unless you can get $1,900 and it will return 5.2%.

I actually like both of them IF 1. You put down enough so that your PI is 50% of the rent 2. There are no major repairs 3. A very strong chance for appreciation.

I would call this a possibility for a "Planned Delayed Flip." This is a planned flip for less than 3 years. If you were to pay $190,000 for house one and put $90,000 down, and then sell it in about 2 years for $300,000, it would not be a bad investment. There is not an investor on BP who wouldn't invest $90,000 today if they were to get $200,000 in 24 months.

Is this a good investment? Probably not, making Hard Money loans, doing short term flips and buying homes that rent for 2% of the purchase price are better investments TODAY. Is this a viable investment strategy? Yes, but it is a GAMBLE.

Personally, I would chose house 1 because in a recovering economy, the lower priced homes appreciate first and quicker.

These both sold at the peak. The smaller sold for 288k. The larger sold for 387k. So, no, not 500-700k. Location is in the Tacoma, WA, not CA. I'm an out of state investor. Repairs for these 2 are minimal.

My plan is to put down 25%, buy, and hold. Maybe I might sell one or two to pay for my kids(they're toddlers now) colleges, but my hope is to generate enough cash flow in the future to pay their college bill as it comes due.

Right now, I don't need cash flow. If I do get a positive cash flow even better. I want to build long term wealth. I'm willing to pay now and reap the rewards later. I don't need the cash flow from day one.

Maybe 2 months ago, I posted a question about my uncle buying his primary residence 30 years ago, for 150k. He moved to another place but rented this original property. It's now valued at 700k(post bubble burst), paid off, and he rents it out for 3100 a month, a nice additional supplemental income. I asked if he were an RE investor. I got comments like, he was lucky(probably), he's better off than 95% of the rest of the population, he's not an good RE investor just someone who makes passive income on one rental property.

To me, the people on this board are savvy investors, probably based on the 2-50 paradigm. I don't have the time to be this good. Plus RE equity is only going to be 25-30% of my net invested assets. I'm trying to duplicate what my uncle did, just by a few multiples.

I don't mind getting slammed her on this board, cause the tid bits I get here are sometimes pretty valuable.

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19
Originally posted by George P.:
Originally posted by Jordan L.:
I've got two homes I'm eyeing. Both built in 2005. Location the same. One's 1900 sq ft home selling for 190k. Will definitely rent out for $1500 a month. Another is 2950 sq ft home selling for 220k. Will definitely rent out for $1700k but if you're willing to wait a month, you might get up to $1900.

While I know neither of the 2 fit the 2-50 rule, and not even close, if you had to, which one would you do?


Why is it you are HAVING TO buy one of these? Someone is twisting your arm? :cool:

It's my investment strategy. Buying newer properties to hold for the long haul.

Post: Of these 2 REOs, which would you pick?

Jordan L.Posted
  • Investor
  • Newbury Park, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 19

I've got two homes I'm eyeing. Both built in 2005. Location the same. One's 1900 sq ft home selling for 190k. Will definitely rent out for $1500 a month. Another is 2950 sq ft home selling for 220k. Will definitely rent out for $1700k but if you're willing to wait a month, you might get up to $1900.

While I know neither of the 2 fit the 2-50 rule, and not even close, if you had to, which one would you do?