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All Forum Posts by: Bradley Bogdan

Bradley Bogdan has started 8 posts and replied 231 times.

Post: Greece to Take Bridge Loan to Restructure Debt

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222

@Chris Haas

The U.S. is different for many reasons, but the simplest is that our debt as a % of GDP is substantially smaller. Depending on who's measuring, Greece's is around 180% to 185% where ours is around 75%. 

When you're talking about private pension plans, I agree. Most companies do not fund their pensions in a very proactive manner, which all too often leads to lots of sour grapes for employees that put in long careers with the promise of retirement income. That issue directly led to our current reliance on IRAs today, which doesn't really solve the issue at all, just causes us to expect less. Public pension plans, the biggest of which is Social Security, haven't been managed as well as many would like, but are not really broken. Small tweaks to the formulas to reflect the fact we continue to be in better health, work longer, and live longer should sustain the program for the next generation without much difficulty. The current issues regarding passing legislation over the last decade make those changes seem daunting, but they really would be pretty minor. 

Back to Greece, there is much more going on than a simple breakdown of a benefits heavy system. The US is reasonably good collecting the taxes its supposed to to fund its benefits, Greece is not, and that is not an easy fix. Neither is the current heavy reliance on "black/grey market" businesses due to the crushing bureaucracy that make business starts/growth through legal channels uncompetitive/impossible. Those systemic changes are part of what the EU really wants to see completed to clean up the economy and let it breath and grow a bit. 

Unfortunately, those pretty agreeable ideas are almost certainly not enough to remove the huge burden of debt on a country, even one that has a lot of ground to gain in those areas. The sovereign debt of Greece has grown over 20% as a %of GDP in the last 3 years largely due to the fact that their GDP has fallen, which makes the debt load look even more daunting. That reduction is likely caused by the fairly regressive tax policies and benefits reductions begun as part of the "austerity" provisions of the original bailout. It is all fine, well and good to require intelligent spending, but something many people forget is that, unlike a large company, a country is often the primary driver of its own growth. If Target decides to lay off 10% of its workforce, that doesn't remove a substantial portion of customers from its stores and is a pretty direct boon to its bottom line. If a country decides to reduce its benefits spending by 10% (or in Greece's case, substantially more), that pulls pretty much the entire amount out of the economy of the country, and where are tax revenues generated? The economy of the country. Again, that's not to say that profligate spending is a good idea, but one should always be cognizant that the opposite is just as bad, if not worse, when you have a high debt load. You need a happy medium if you're to encourage growth. 

There are plenty of precedents for this kind of imposed austerity not working well for a country. Much of Africa was heavily indebted in the 1980s and 1990s which led to IMF and World Bank imposed austerity measures, which placed multiple countries in chaotic downward spirals, both economically and politically. When major debt relief began in the 1990s, it did a lot to rescue countries that were almost certainly destined to fail otherwise. While Greece has already gotten a haircut on its debt, it is still at an unsustainably high level (partially due to the fall in GDP), even if moderate growth is achieved over the next decade.  The IMF is the main voice to this, outside of the Greek government. 

The conservative bloc of the Eurozone countries, led by Germany, seem to have a punitive view towards Greece, beyond what is needed to fix the current debt issue. Greece obviously hasn't been a particularly willing dancing partner over the last 5 years, but they seem to be the bunch that the conservative bloc wants to make an example of. Countries like Ireland, Portugal and Spain were reasonably mute in taking their austerity lumps, and are scraping along but surviving. What ideas would they get if Greece, the most indebted of any of the problem countries, is able to work a more favorable deal to deal with its debt? Germany and its bloc seem very focused on preventing that precedent. 

Leaving the Eurozone if a debt writedown isn't forthcoming seems to be Greece's best option, as it restores the biggest tool in the economic arsenal to their control: currency valuation. The Euro is, and will remain, a relatively strong currency in the world, as its driven by a number of the leading world economies. That is a large and direct impediment to using exports to drive the kind of growth numbers that Greece would need to make substantial progress. If you look at the US, it has long been an issue for American manufacturers in staying competitive on the world stage when the Dollar is strong, and a constant thorn that the Chinese (allegedly) keep the Yuan artificially low. Greece's current government doesn't seem like the autocratic wizards that it would take to make a currency switch back to the Drachma a less chaotic one, but it is definitely the only option to really retain autonomy and perhaps grow their way out of the worst of the problem, not to mention print currency to pay back a portion of their debts. 

Long story short, the Greek debt crisis is about a lot more than Greece spending too much and not taxing enough :-). I don't see the current deal as it stands as one that will prevent this discussion from coming up again in a year or two, and will perhaps not even fly this time with the renewed push this week from the IMF for a debt writedown. 

Post: low income rentals

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222

@William Donnelly

Your VA loan can fund new construction, in a round about way. You'll need to get in touch with a lender that has a lot of VA loan experience, not just someone that can do a VA loan. Long story short, you'll basically be setting up a situation where you get some kind of temporary financing to fund the construction to then roll over into the VA loan once complete. Definitely doable, but definitely a bit complicated, hence the need to work with someone that knows the ins and outs.

Best of luck finding the right property/place to build, keep us posted!

@Jordan Williamson

 It sounds like you're right on point with your approach. I sincerely hope they take the early out and make this end painlessly for both parties. 

Speaking from experience in trying to house dozens of folks with evictions similar in tune to his story, they are still an excellent predictor of future trouble. While his circumstances may be fairly accurate, what's demonstrated is a lack of ability to handle rental related issues correctly. Almost no landlord evicts someone out of spite, even slumlords. Why? Slumlords are usually lazy and cheap, that's why they're renting out crappy places. It costs money to evict someone, they'd almost always rather you just left. If they had to actually evict you, AND you didn't win with all that evidence of lack of maintenance, well that speaks a different story than the "woe is me" version you've given. I know, there are exceptions, but I'd say 90% of my clients with an eviction, the eviction was very avoidable on their part. That means that even if they're well meaning tenants that want to have a simple, healthy rental relationship, they have demonstrated a lack of ability to navigate a difficult rental situation, which is a strong predictor that the next time something comes up, they stand a good chance of not handling it well again. 

I'll also echo what others have said, he clearly isn't disagreeing with the fact that this was planned. That indicates that they clearly intended to deceive, and should ALWAYS be a huge red flag. I don't buy for a second that he "forgot" about ALL of those things. Maybe you forget the second arrest since they happened back to back days, maybe the first eviction really isn't his, but you don't forget about ALL of it. 

Like I said before, it sounds like you've stuck to your guns and are making the correct moves. I hope it turns out well, keep us posted. 

@Hannah Williams,

I'm very familiar with programs in a few other places, though not Detroit specifically. From a strictly business perspective, most of the tenants utilizing those programs will give you issues in one shape or another. They draw from a considerably higher needs group than Section 8 does, on average. Also, since their services can be very time limited, there is always the issue of the tenant finding suitable employment, keeping said employment, the employer not jerking the tenant around (especially with low income workers, it goes both ways), etc. not to mention whatever other issues, be they family, substance use disorders, disabilities, etc. that could have contributed to them being in need of a high level of services. A long story short, a poor bet financially speaking. 

Now, on the flip side, that doesn't mean that all folks in those programs are bad. On paper, none are going to look particularly attractive, but there are certainly success stories with these programs. Part of any business is being able to take pride in your work and membership in your community. That doesn't obligate you to take silly risks, but for many, it does mean making efforts to support and contribute to their community in ways that are not direct benefits to the bottom line. Whether participating in a program like this, and just being VERY selective about the tenants you accept, or contributing to your community in other ways fits your goals and your business best, that's up to you to decide. Even though I work as a Social Worker for my day job, I wouldn't chose those style programs as my way to contribute to the community, but other local landlords do. Hopefully someone here will have some larger scale numbers for you to help figure out how big of a financial risk a tenant like that could pose in your area, and that can help you decide whether its doable or not. 

Either way, let us know what you chose and how it works out! Good luck!

Not to sound like I'm piling on, but here's my interpretation of what's been said so far @Jordan Williamson:

- Tenant was probably marginal to begin with, but we've all looked over red flags in the past about tenants. Sometimes it works out fine, sometimes not. We've also almost all had to file an eviction or two, and its never because you thought the tenant was bad before they moved in. Lesson learned.

- Tenant's boyfriend shouldn't be allowed onto the lease under any circumstances. He clearly doesn't meet your guidelines (or anyone elses for that matter), you're right in not letting the tail wag the dog. 

- You seem to be following the right train of thought in offering them an early out (thereby solving everyone's problems) and perhaps should give them a bit more time to make it happen. If she elects to serve out her lease, I'd give it a 110% likelihood she'll continue to have problems. I'd make getting out of the lease even more attractive if possible, though short of a cash-for-keys situation, I'm not sure how that's possible. 

- BE VERY CAREFUL IF ABUSE IS REPORTED WHILE THEY ARE AT YOUR RENTAL. There is a very complicated web of rules protecting victims of domestic abuse that, legally, make it rough on a landlord. I know in many cases landlords don't know about them and just evict everyone and aren't contested, but in the interests of giving you a heads up, it could get ugly if they stick around long enough to get back into the cycle of abuse at your property. Not trying to be harsh, as being the victim of abuse is no laughing matter, but understand that the couple isn't the only two people drawn into the legal web when abuse occurs. 

Good luck with all of this. Let us know how it plays out. It sounds like you're on the right path now so hopefully the tenants cooperate and leave you be. 

Post: Section 8 Legal Source of Income

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222
Originally posted by @Kevin Siedlecki:

To everyone, if you have questions, ask me in a PM.  This thread if full of misinformation that could actually get you in legal trouble!!!

 Kevin is very correct. Be careful of your local laws, they vary widely on this topic.

In broad strokes, there are two kinds of areas: Ones with "income discrimination" laws and ones without. 

In general, if you live in a place that DOES NOT have an income discrimination law, you are free to discriminate against Section 8 voucher holders, including advertising that you do so. Basically, these areas hold that someone with a voucher is not the same as someone paying full boat, and is therefore someone that you can discriminate against on the basis of income (still can't obviously discriminate on other factors, such as race, age, etc.). 

In general, if you live in a place that DOES have an income discrimination law, you are not free to discriminate against folks with Section 8 vouchers. You must treat that voucher as meeting your income requirements for your property. It does not mean that you can't have other application criteria (such as credit, good rental history, no evictions, no criminal record, etc.) that you can deny tenants for, you just cannot dismiss them out of hand due to holding a voucher. This includes advertising things like "No Section 8." The idea being that since the paperwork for the program is minimal, and the voucher allows a tenant to pay rent at the industry standard proportion of income, there is no undue burden on the landlord for accepting these tenants. 

Moral of the story: KNOW YOUR LOCAL LAWS! Some of these statutes are state level, others are county wide or just for your local municipality. If you're still fuzzy on whether they apply in your area, consult your lawyer. There are a few areas (like much of California) that have income discrimination laws that do not cover vouchers, just other forms of income that are commonly discriminated against (like child support, fixed incomes such as Social Security, etc.). Again, know your local laws. 

Please also remember there are a variety of legal ways you can chose not to participate in the program even in areas where there are income discrimination laws in place. The most common one is that you can just price your rental higher than the program will pay for your area. Unless you're someplace that imposes rent controls, you're free to price your rental as you chose. Problem solved. 

Post: Working with CPS?

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222

There are a lot of ways one can wind up in the CPS system, so lets not make more assumptions than needed. Abuse and neglect are the most common reasons CPS gets involved long term, but if the kids are being housed with the mom, odds are less than 50/50 that mom was the perpetrator, if that was even the issue. Getting evicted is almost never a reason to be involved with CPS, as almost nowhere in the US is being homeless with children considered a danger to the child in and of itself. Its considered more of a school district issue and whatever community resources there are, including some federal funds specifically for homeless youth, are usually funneled through there. That's a different discussion though. 

If the tenant is talking about CPS paying for her place, I would definitely have the tenant provide you the information of their CPS worker and discuss what EXACTLY the payment arrangements will be. Usually, CPS funds are for "resettlement and stabilization" of a family, so perhaps a family moving away from an abusive adult, resettling after the parent completed an alcohol or drug program, or moving the family to somewhere where they have family supports (grandparents, healthcare, etc.). Usually, they are short term, ie they will pay for something like deposit and part or all of 6 months rent to get them on their feet. They will usually have support from CPS during that time, for what its worth. Just like local Public Housing Authorities vary widely, so do CPS departments.

A couple things I would make sure of:

- Don't skimp on your due diligence. Check references, credit, and especially criminal history, along with anything else you usually check.

- If the rest of the application looks good and meets your normal requirements, but you don't want to rent to them, make sure you don't run afoul of any local income discrimination laws, if your area has them. 

- Make sure the tenant has the ability to continue paying on the place after the assistance ends. If she has no income or plan for income after any short term assistance expires, that's obviously a good reason to not rent to her (again making sure that the short term assistance doesn't run you afoul of income discrimination).

- Get the maximum deposit you're allowed to.

- DON'T PUSH HER FOR PERSONAL DETAILS. Obviously, require all the normal information for an application, but don't ask any questions that could leave you open to a discrimination suit. There are A LOT of rules protecting victims of domestic violence and I don't claim to be an expert in them, but those are definitely the kind of questions that could leave you open to trouble if she is a victim and you end up choosing not to rent to her. 

- While you shouldn't push her for personal details, you should have a good long conversation with her to see if she wants to "volunteer" information. You'd be surprised with what people feel comfortable sharing with a virtual stranger, and that should give you a better idea of what kind of tenant she and her children would be. 

- Finally, find a good balance for you personally in your investing. Some investors are very good at taking the emotion out of their work, and an example applicant such as this one obviously has red flags all over the place. Other investors very much link their personal values and vision of the world to their work, taking on (or not taking on) neighborhoods, people and programs that other investors wouldn't be willing to. Personally, even as a social worker in my day job, based on the info you've shared I probably wouldn't rent to her. I don't know that that's the right answer for you though (especially since you'll probably be getting much more info). The right answer for you is the one that you can sleep with at night, even if that means taking a measured risk of an eviction in the future. 

Good luck and keep us posted!

Post: Buffalo Eviction Services

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222
Thanks Tony. Those day totals vary widely by locality. Unfortunately, my mother primarily manages our rentals and I'm located on the West coast. I'm pretty comfortable walking her through the rules concerning not renewing a lease in Buffalo, but I can smell a holdout by this tenant and she doesn't have the time to learn/manage an eviction with her day job. Just looking for a suggestion of who locally works well and at a reasonable price. Thanks though!

Post: Buffalo Eviction Services

Bradley BogdanPosted
  • Investor
  • Eureka, CA
  • Posts 233
  • Votes 222
Hi all! Does anyone have any recommendations for eviction services in Buffalo, NY? My family will likely need one in the near future with a tenant that will refuse to leave when her lease agreement is up. I know Buffalo has a strong presence on the boards here, so I look forward to all of your suggestions! Thanks, Brad

Oops, realize my previous post from the app didn't have the @s working. @Christina R. @Account Closed. Thank you both in advance for sharing!