Glad I searched a bit, as this is a situation I'm going through right now. Let me use some hypothetical numbers for a hypothetical property to speak to. Let's say the property is in a B area that's desirable, older building, and has a lot of deferred CapEx (structural [like floor joists need to be replaced, brick work needs to be repaired, few walls in basement reinforced] roofs, etc) and all units need to be completed updated--it's a value-add opportunity through and through, as rents are also well below market.
- Collected income from T-12: $66,800
- Operating expenses from T-12: $30,200 (does not include CapEx or debt service, ~45% of gross income)
- Resultant T-12 NOI: $36,600
- As-is potential annual income: $78,000 (basically, if the vacancies were filled and 100% collections on rents)
- Assumed market CapEx: 6.5%
- After repositioning annual income: $112,800
- CapEx required to reposition: $200,000
If we use a simple T-12 valuation at 6.5% cap rate, that'd be $36,600 / .065 = ~$563,000 valuation. Again, based on actual reported income, which would include realized vacancy. Question: How would you price in the $200k of CapEx that the property desperately needs? Just subtract that $200k from the $563k = $363k?
If we use the potential as-is income of $78k and same cap, and assume a 5% vacancy rate and 45% expense ratio, that'd put us at: $78,000 * .95 = $74,100 (Effective Gross Income); then, $74,100 * .55 = $40,755 NOI. Finally, valuation with as-is potential income would be $40,755 / .065 = ~$627,000 valuation. Question: Any again, how do you factor in the CapEx that has been deferred? Just subtract it from the offer?
In line with the above, what would you define as CapEx that would warrant being taken off the offer price? For example, suppose this building, being older, needed significant structural work to reinforce floors, repair exterior brick work, replace windows, repair roofs, and all of the interiors needed to be heavily turned (new countertops, sinks, appliances, showers/tubs, toilets, flooring, paint, fixtures, etc) to hit the pro forma numbers.
I'm poring over various spreadsheets to analyze a deal (like Michael Blank's SDA, even though this isn't a syndication) and Joe Fairless' free simplified calc sheet, but I've got some nagging questions on when to actually use certain values... hence the above scenario/question. I realize MFR is a competitive space and we may be required to "pay the seller for work they haven't done" by paying a premium over the valuation based purely on the T-12, but there still needs to be "meat on the bone" for our strategy of eventually recapturing our capital after repositioning.
Thanks in advance.