I follow a lot of housing market analysts, one of my favorites is Logan Mohtashami from Housing Wire. Check out his stuff. He's still calling the market "savagely unhealthy" in an article published on 4/15. Here's his quote:
"Again, I am a man who believes in balance and what we have in housing right now is savagely unhealthy. My 23% home-price growth model for 2020-2024 has already been smashed and we are heading for 35%-40% cumulative home-price growth in three years, which is not a good thing in my book."
He continues...
"However, mortgage rates being at 3% is much different than mortgage rates at 5%. Hopefully, we can balance the housing market with these higher rates. In the summer of 2020, I wrote that a 10-year yield over 1.94% could cool down housing, but that was before the significant price-growth run we’ve seen in America."
In no way is he predicting a crash. He's just hoping for more balance.
My two cents...
There is a HUGE shortage of inventory. Material costs are sky-high and the labor pool is shallow. This makes new construction and basic home remodeling expensive. Another story you don't here reported nearly enough is the "aging in place" trend. Our older generations aren't selling their homes and moving into retirement communities, assisted living or nursing homes anymore. They're staying put because home healthcare is a much cheaper alternative. This further exacerbates our inventory crisis. All of this makes me think that there is no bubble looming. Perhaps a softening up, but no burst.
Since your exit strategy is to fix and flip, you should be in and out of your deals in under 6 months. Housing cycles move a glacial pace so you if your numbers are calculated accurately I don't see any market-related issues for you.
