Really interesting discussion. I didn't know the $250,000/$500,000 capital gains exclusion has remain unchanged since 1997.
More specific to California, as far as older people (boomers) moving out of their homes so younger people can move in, I don't think that's the major reason, capital gains tax (of people I've talked to so obviously I don't know millions of people in CA). Ex: Someone bought a home in the Bay Area for $50,000 in 1970 and now it's worth $2 million. Many of them that I know don't want to leave a familiar area that they've lived in for 40 to 50+ years and move out of state or elsewhere in CA. These were middle class people when they bought. I haven't talked to any older person in a rush to move to Arizona, Florida etc out of the Bay Area although there probably are many of them.
Despite all the "California has high state income taxes, high cost living etc" if you have a paid off property, low property taxes, a retired person with low expenses, a decent pension, retirement savings and a little Social Security can live a comfortable life here. Our health care is rated B.
https://medicareguide.com/best-states-for-elderly-healthcare...
For the people buying homes currently it's mostly high income earners especially tech people paying $1.5 to $3 million for SFH and they will bid up on a desirable home especially on the Peninsula/Silicon Valley. Those price ranges are much too high for anyone with a lower salary such as retail workers, teachers, etc. We have state programs and private programs (they get part of your equity though) to help first time home buyers.
Separate from the capital gains tax issue is CA's low property taxes from Prop. 18. Before heirs could inherit the parent's property tax basis on the parent's primary home and for additional properties they're exempted the first $1million value of the home. (Ex: House A market value is $2 million but child is paying $2000 property tax based on parent's $110,000 assessed value but market value is $1.8 million). And recent Prop. 19 passed in 2020. This did away with that unless the child moves into the parent's primary home but it allows seniors (or severely disabled or a natural disaster victim) to transfer their low property tax basis to buy a new home elsewhere in CA. I didn't vote for Prop 19 - there have been efforts to repeal it. Now I have to do some maneuvering of my estate so my kids aren't hit with a massive property tax increase when I die.
https://abioproperties.com/market-news-trends/californias-pr....
There's unfairness everywhere depending on who you talk to. We can't make everyone happy.
What are people's thoughts about raising the capital gains exemption to $500,000/$1 million?