@terry Lao @jennifermatsumoto
1 in 1999 and 1 in 2001. Both of which almost tripled 6-8 years then dropped to about 90% of purchase price.
1 in 2009, 1 in 2010, 4 in 2011, 1 in 2012, 1 in 2013, 2 in 2015 and my primary in 2014. All of these have done nothing but appreciate. The 2009-2013 properties all doubled or more by 2015. The 2015's and primary are up maybe 30%. But none of these were bought with any skill or direct marketing or any magic. I made tons of offers on "dirty, empty, abused" MLS listings. Usually only about 10% less than listing price. I regret to this day the 4 I didn't buy at list price that have of course more than doubled in a few years. But I knew I had just bought "the same house" for $5000 less in better shape. So I lost $100's of thousand to save $5's of thousands.
You’ll have to ask Terry if I’m correct that there are no small multis,in good neighborhoods that are less than 30 years old, but I haven’t seen them. There was a super sweet multi at Durango and 215 (north side) that sat empty for 5 years after being built but I could never find anyone to talk to about it. But it looked closer to 20 units than 4. They are also building 3 massive multis by the Centenial library up north.
There is empty land but it’s $140k for a 1/2 acre lot. Before you for utilities and if you happen to be the last empty parcel on the street you’ve just invited the curbing, sidewalks, sewers to be built and assessed to you and your neighbors, welcome to the area. Almost all the land for developers is being sold by the BLM. So it’s farther and farther out and more and more expensive. They’re really pushing the south west valley since that used to be barren wasteland. If the cheapest thing they can build, (excluding 3 story 1400sf disasters), is costing them $300k and selling for almost $400k with zero upgrades, landscaping, appliances, etc, I just don’t see it as an impact. They sold 3400 new homes last year and they were excited. That’s one month’s worth of sales.
If you lived in the Midwest I’d say you have better returns there don’t buy in Vegas, but you have bad weather and little appreciation. Living in California I really don’t see you have many if any better options than Vegas. You could talk about Phoenix or anywhere else in Arizona but I consider them vegas without the shows, the restaurants, the gambling, the tourists, the excitement, and they tack on state income tax. You can probably fly to vegas for $50? Drive for the fun of it? Write off the trips.
In conclusion: yes, you shoulda bought 5 years ago, but that’s true of just about every market in America.