@Andrew Jones
Well I'm not sure If I am the one considered bagging on Ca real estate- I don't see anyone else here doing it so it must be me. I would say that the person claiming people bagging on Ca real estate , that is me, have actually have owned Ca real estate. Probably more than a lot of posters here, I can tell you I played the appreciation game and it's a long slow process usually. Not to mention unless you have a big window to hold, you may get to experience it going down in value
I owned 2 houses in Pleasanton years ago. Paid $600K each and put down $200K. They ran a negative $10K minimum cash flow each year. Rent covered mortgage, but taxes, insurance, maintanence, vacancy An owner would cover. I did sell them, but had I held them just taking a rough guess it took 14 years for them to each hit $925K. Great appreciation, but for several years they went down in value. So over 14 years each one went up $325K. There's the appreciation play. A terrific gain , 23K a year, but you had to wait 14 years for it to happen. But wait, let's take off the yearly loss. Up until a few years ago when rents took off and you can break even, you would still lose 10K a year or more for 11 years for a total of $110K negative. Now your appreciation is down to $205K. That's still a good chunk, but kind of a hairy ride for a bit waiting for appreciation.
Now if you bought those 3 years ago when I started buying out of state for cash flow you could have paid $750 to 800K and made 125K to $175K appreciation, but you still would have run a small negative cash flow over 3 years probably say about 20 to 25k for the 3 years.
So all in all in the hottest appreciation market in the last 3 years you'd make a net of $150K or so with that California real estate putting down about $250K down payment.
In my case the last 3 years with my out of state property I got from $250K a total of $135K of forced appreciation and rental income of 105k.
That's California appreciation $150k vs out of state $245K from a $250K investement. The difference will be higher if I leverage out of state like the Ca property is leveraged. Right now doing the BRRRR thing I am pulling out all my money I put in plus some extra on the cash out refi, still flowing positive, and still have a 30% equity position on the property
I'm not saying Ca isn't a good bet. It is for most people. If they can wait for a long period. The last few years have been out of the norm. Someone buying today may not see the appreciation over the next 3 years matching the last.
I'm just saying I've owned both so I can tell you pros and cons and pretty much invalidate what the guy who is saying that people posting here never owned Ca real estate.