All Forum Posts by: Art Perkitny

@Jessica Tsao, Boise has definitely experienced it's fair share of appreciation in the past few years.

That being said, all this appreciation has not been homogeneously distributed across the entire city.

Certain areas have seen higher and lower amount of appreciation.

The map below shows the change in median home values from 2014 to 2018 as reported by the census bureau. As you can see, a few areas have actually seen decreases in home values, while most are reporting modest increases. Places like the central urban core are reporting an average increase of 162k on the other hand. 

@Jason Bach

I think you can definitely ask for more rent.

A quick look at the data and it's pretty clear that the vast majority of rentals in the Mayfair neighborhood rent for between $1,000 and $1,249

Depending on your units exact condition and amenities you can expect to be somewhere in that range.  

This data comes directly for the most recent american community survey and is representative of the data collected for the census tract that most closely approximates the Mayfair neighborhood boundaries. 

@Frank Montero

The address you have provided sits in a small B class enclave within Garfield Heights.

The surrounding blocks are going to lean more towards a C or D class rank

@Joe DeClue, as others have stated, for 100k your selection of area will be limited. 

To aid you in your search I have included a graphic showing the location grade for places within OKC. 

The scale is on an A to F range and corresponds to various risk metrics. The lower the grade, this riskier the investment area.

The 2nd graphic is the same, but filtered down to location that have median home values under 100k. This should help you find the ideal location for your first BRRRR.

@Account Closed

The 78226 zip code is going to be on average a D class area, meaning risk will be higher. 

Rents have increased marginally over the past four years, so I wouldn't count on much in terms or appreciation and rent growth. 

The maps below will show you graphically the area classes as well as the change in median rent from 2014 to 2018.

Hope this helps 

@Account Closed, the data suggests that the area has indeed improved greatly since Audi field was announced and construction began. 

Looking at the census data available for areas near the stadium, it's clear that rents and household incomes have both increased dramatically.   

@Vic Delgado

Difficult to say without looking at a buildings financials, but that being said it's possible to approximate using public data.

I first pull the Cleveland parcel data-set from the Cuyahoga County Open Data website.

I then filtered down by number of dwelling units greater than or equal to 5 and with a recorded transfer of ownership in  Jan 2018 or later

The reason I chose 5 unit is because the number of buildings with 100 or more units is very small, and we need a sufficient sample size to get meaningful results. 

I then associated each parcel with a census tract to get the census reported median gross rent for each property. 

Lastly, I computed the cap rate by taking the monthly median rent, multiplying it by 12 and again by 50% (imputing 50 percent operating expense ratio). I then divided this by the reported sale price of the property. 

This is what resulted:

High Res Link

As you can see, Multi-Families in the Edgewater neighborhood seem to command a cap rate of around 10.4%.

This is based on buildings with 5 or more units, so the cap rate may differ at the 100 plus unit level. 

I did wash the data for obvious outliers, such as derelict buildings that were purchased for next to nothing and likely don't have a current certificate of occupancy. 

I think this should give you a better idea of what the expect in Edgewater as well as give you a snapshot of the Cleveland as a whole. 

Hope this helps! 

@Wasil Munir 

I would start by looking at the macro market's fundamentals, that is the population, job and income growth over time.

After that, I would look to see what the rents and home prices are and how those are trending as well.

I would do a similar analysis, but at the sub-market level for the metro area you are considering flipping in. 

You should also look at comps via sites like Redfin or Zillow to see what others are doing in the space, how much they are paying for their flips, and what the ARVs are looking like. 

Hope this helps!

@Peter Roehrich

Very interesting question, thought I may take a stab at trying to answer it using some data science. 

I assume by your companies area you mean Hyattsville MD. The following is based on data for the entirety of Prince George's County. 

I started by exporting data from Redfin using their download feature to build a dataset of 4054 new construction properties sold in the county since 2014. 

Just by looking at this data, it's already clear that two huge demand drivers are property type and location (by zip code)

If we look at the median DOM (days on market) as our demand indicator and group the data by property type, we see that condos sell almost 100 days faster than SFR.

Likewise, by aggregating by zip code, it's clear that location has a major influence on demand. 

However, your question was what features inside the home drive demand. So I decided to take the analysis a step further. 

On each Redfin listing, there is a section titled "interior Features". This section contains metadata regarding what features each specific property possess. 

To retrieve this data, I re-purposed a simple crawler I had written in the past and was able to pull into my original data-set all the interior features that Redfin tracks and whether or not each sold listing had each feature. 

I then did the same analysis and came up with this:

High Res Chart Link

This chart shows the median DOM tabulated by properties that do and don't have an interior feature. I limited the analysis to features that had a sample size of 25 or greater to reduce error.

Of all the features, the ones with the most DOM difference were homes that had carpet, separate dining room, pantry, walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and sprinkler system listed as features included. 

Some features correlated negatively with DOM, such as wood floors and upgraded kitchens. This may be because of the added costs that these kinds of features add to the final price, which also correlated negatively with DOM. 

Hope this helps answer your questions! 

@Alex Velazquez

Detroit is very block by block. Some areas have seen property value increase, others not so much. 

I would suggest digging into specific neighborhoods to understand whether or not there is opportunity present.

To give you an idea of just how block by block it really is, I have included a map showing the change in property values at the block group level from 2014 to 2018 in Detroit. 

Blue means increase, red decrease.

The data is from the census american community survey