All Forum Posts by: Andrew Postell

This morning’s BLS revisions delivered a shock to markets, revealing a massive 911,000 downward adjustment to payroll growth through March. The scale of the revision highlights a significantly weaker labor market than previously understood and has immediate implications for monetary policy.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.03%, testing major resistance at 4.00%. It has since edged slightly higher to 4.06% as markets digest the implications of the BLS data. The yield curve remains steep, with short-term yields falling on rate cut expectations, while longer-term yields are sticky due to inflation and fiscal concerns.

Gold surged to a record high of $3,650/oz, up over $3,700 year-to-date. The rally is driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, falling real yields, and global demand for safe-haven assets amid trade and fiscal instability.

Slower employment growth and the BLS revisions solidify the case for a September rate cut. Markets are now pricing in a near-certain 25bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed is likely to interpret the labor market deterioration as a signal to begin a string of cuts, barring an extremely low CPI print on Thursday.

Forecasting bond performance remains challenging amid persistent macro uncertainty, unresolved tariff impacts, and key inflation data still to come. Investors are increasingly favoring the front end of the curve and high-quality credit, as longer-duration Treasuries may struggle in this environment. Mortgage pricing, therefore, isn’t on a one-way path lower—since Friday’s payroll-induced bond rally, we’ve seen broad repricing of both risk and duration across the industry.

Servicing valuations have dropped meaningfully, as portfolio managers brace for a potential wave of payoffs driven by refinancing activity. Credit spreads, particularly in non-agency sectors like Jumbo and NQM, are widening as investors reassess the implications of a weakening labor market. Mortgages are currently down 3 ticks on the day. With rates testing the lower end of the recent trading range (4.0% on the 10-year) and origination supply picking up, the market faces stiff resistance to rally further from here without a jolt from softer inflation.

@Arun Maheshwari good question.  @Kyle Mccaw any advice here?

@Dominique Duplantier yes, the above comments are right on.  So, let's try some local real estate meetup groups. Meetup.com is a good resource for those but some of the groups will also post here on Bigger Pockets Marketplace too. Even facebook might have some good local groups for you. Some of those facebook groups have thousands of members.  Oh, eventbrite too. But post locally for this. That’s the best bet.

@Yakir Aloni the entire concept of the BRRRR Method is so that you don't have a downpayment. It might be hard to guess at this in a forum setting but if you are being required to have a downpayment then either the deal is not structured correctly, the lender isn't the type of lender we want to work with, or you are paying too much for the deal.

Now, if you are coming out of pocket $5k...that's fine. But that's not a downpayment. If you are being required to bring 20% or 25% down....that's NOT fine. That's a downpayment. That's what we are trying to avoid with the BRRRR Method. Hope this makes sense.

@Umar Mohammed thanks for posting! Welcome to the community and feel free to post in any forum really but this specific one is more for the BRRRR Method. So, if you are looking to because a "buy and hold" investor most of our biggest challenges is around money. We all have limited funds (which is why the BRRRR is a great technique). However, your challenge will be an out of country investor. If you do want to invest in the US, you will have some different challenges because people who live outside of the US have a harder time getting financing than people who live here. Kind of like if one of us wanted to purchase a home in Nigeria...it would be harder for us to buy there because the banking system gives it's citizens better loans that people who are not citizens.

Hope all of that makes sense but feel free to post more!  Here to help!

@Austin Fowler always here to help.  Reach out any time.

The bond market is surging this morning following a decisively weak August employment report, which showed just 22,000 jobs added—a far cry from the 80,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, and June’s payrolls were revised downward to a loss of 13,000, marking the first monthly decline since December 2020.

This data has sharpened the dovish tilt in rate expectations. Treasury yields are markedly lower, led by the 10-year note, which is trading at 4.06%, down from its summer range of 4.20% to 4.50%. Mortgage bonds are rallying in tandem, with UMBS 6s up 8 ticks, trading in the mid-102s, and 5.5s gaining traction as the new current coupon.

Fed Funds futures now reflect a near-certainty of a rate cut at the November or December FOMC meetings, with some strategists even floating the possibility of a half-point cut if labor softness deepens.

According to RBC Capital Markets, markets were already positioned for a soft print—but today’s report exceeded expectations for weakness, reinforcing the Fed’s pivot narrative. The Fed’s dual mandate is now in sharper focus. With inflation pressures easing and employment faltering, the central bank may shift its emphasis from price stability to labor market support. The latest Beige Book confirms that seven of twelve Fed districts are seeing hiring hesitancy due to weaker demand and economic uncertainty.

Strategists at ALM First note that the bond market has now priced in an additional 25 basis points of easing over the next 12–18 months, fully baking in a September cut and laying the groundwork for further accommodation.

@Mohammad Murad 100% agree with above statement.  This is no loophole.  This is code and your CPA should be providing you guidance on it.

@Linda Luna thanks for the post!  I wish that Bigger Pockets was around when I got started.  It was really difficult to find anyone that was an investor.  However, now, we have multiple outlets that can help us connect with others.  So, let's try some local real estate meetup groups. Meetup.com is a good resource for those but some of the groups will also post here on Bigger Pockets Marketplace too. Even facebook might have some good local groups for you. Some of those facebook groups have thousands of members. The priority is consistent recommendations from active investors. Oh, eventbrite too. But post locally for this. That’s the best bet.

@Mohammad Murad what Short Term Rental Loophole are you speaking about?