Hi @Joe Nguyen,
Typically when there is a recession, rates go down so mortgage products become more attractive.
If you are going to utilize an ARM, I would get a hybrid ARM.
That way, you are getting a fixed rate for the first 5 or 7 years, then you are refinancing within that period to get into a 30-year fixed.
This way, you get better rates than a 30-year fixed while still having a fixed rate for the first 5-7.
The bet you are making is not that rates will be lower in 5 to 7 years. The bet that you are making is that rates will be lower than they are now within the next 5 to 7 years.
If rates hit 3% again next year, you can refi into a 30-year fixed.
Worst case scenario, these are the lowest rates for the next 7 years. In that case, would you still be buying property at higher rates?
If the answer is yes, then you can do a cash-out refinance to free up capital to further invest or do a rate and term refinance into another 5/1 or 7/1 ARM at a higher rate.
If the answer is no, you can sell and put that capital towards whatever your investments are at that time.
Hope this helps! Let me know if I can be of any assistance.