Originally posted by @Jacob Shoesmith:
@Bruce Lynn
1970
Every house I’ve lived in and heard of with friends, even the same for townhomes and apartments, all have tenants out by July 22ish and move in is August 1. Or something similar. That’s my vacancy comment. So 1, maybe 2 weeks max.
I will up my wear and tear.
The college hadn’t yet released whether they were having in-person classes this year so all landlords dropped their rents so they would get some tenants for sure. It wasn’t til a few weeks before Fall semester started that they announced that they would. Therefore, houses are already preloading right now for next year at really high rents!
All of these people have great ideas you should take into consideration. I 100% agree with them that Vacancy rates are way too low because college kids are unpredictable.
While in college there were a bunch of people I knew who broke leases or moved out without letting people know or secretly subleased the property to someone else. College kids are a wild factor and its because they just don't know and don't care.
That same principle is also why your repairs and cap ex should be way higher. College kids ruin everything because they don't know that what they are going to do is going to ruin the house or they don't care that what they are going to do is ruin the house because it's not theirs. As bright as college kids are. They aren't very bright nor have any money, experience, or credit to help you fix the problems they've made.
In my opinion you seem like you're attached to the home which is very dangerous. You should ALWAYS run your numbers in worst case scenario and even then add a buffer for safety. This isn't a short term get rich quick. It is a long game. Make less cashflow now and have a safer investment. It seems to me like those are very best case numbers. So my opinion would be run new worst case numbers. Then re evaluate the deal.
Saying that you and your friends and yourself all have people move in the same time every year seems very off. No area, even college areas, have people move in at the same time every single year. Even if they do, depending on what area around the college it is determines the rents you charge. Property Managers should be the ones giving you this information, not your friends unless they are property managers.
I only say these things to be the pessimist. I rather you be informed with all of the information and back out and find a different deal or even just have you take less cashflow. I just want you to succeed.