All Forum Posts by: Alan Walker

Utah was the number 2 highest appreciating state in the last year (only second to Idaho) and our Month over Month comparison continues to show that. The forecast for appreciation is 10-12% this year. So when thinking about whether or not you should buy because of a “higher” interest rate, how much appreciation are you foregoing because your mortgage may be $100 higher this year than last?

And the beat goes on. This drum hasn’t stopped beating for a while. Active homes in SL county under 700k is hovering between 130 and 140. One of my projects hit the market last week and I had 14 offers in 4 days. By comparison, last year, I would have had 30. So not as manic as its been, but definitely manic enough to need medication. Are higher interest rates the shot in the arm we need? In my opinion, (you know free advice and worth every penny kind of thing), unless interest rates are in the 5’s, I don’t see people pausing their search. Keep in mind, my first interest rate in 2002 was 6.25% and I thought I was getting a screaming deal. Perspective really is everything in this market.

Just when you think we can’t go lower……. SFRs in Salt Lake County under 700k is at 124 homes. Even with interest rates bumping up, I’m pretty sure there are more than 124 buyers in the entire county that want to buy a home. The Fed announced 4-5 price hikes this year and it is already having an effect on primary home mortgage rates. We are soon approaching <gay gasp> 4%!

The market dynamics right now aren’t being driven by interest rates, its straight up supply and demand.

Why do you think people aren’t selling?

At an investor meeting last night a seasoned loan officer talked about the Fed and what they think will be happening this year. The Fed has stated that they want to raise rates up to 5 times this year. His take was that they will make small upward adjustments but that we’ll still be in the high 3’s for primary purchasers with good credit.

Please picture me in a turban with a crystal ball. You couldn’t help it could? The moment I said it you thought it. Next up, think of a blue elephant! :)

Our market remains constricted. Back up to 140 active homes in Salt Lake County under 700,000. For buyers agents, its hard out there for a hustler.

I know inventory will increase by at least one house next week as we list our next project. So there’s some relief for that one person that buys it!

Well howdy do, this week’s nothing new. Other than a constricting of the amount of houses available.

Are we going to reach double-digits before we see an increase in inventory?

Enquiring minds want to know.

What winter slowdown? We certainly aren’t seeing it right now. Appreciation is still on a tear, unsure when that decelerates to something more manageable. 30% median home price appreciate in Salt Lake County. Think about that, a 300,000 house last year is now selling for 390,000. Massive amounts of wealth generation is happening for homeowners.

What would you do with an extra 90,000 this year?

Who else remembers after school specials? For those of your under 40, they were the made-for-tv Lifetime movie, but instead of a husband cheating his wife Joan, with her twin sister, Jackie. and Joan raising their baby as her own kind of stuff, it was related to teenagers and giving feels and addressing our “issues”.

I remember one where it talked about anorexia. Even though Sally had all the food she could want, her body image wouldn’t let her believe she was skinny enough so she kept losing more and more weight. This is a real issue for everyday people. It's also an issue for our market right now.

We are down to 141 actives homes under 700,000 in ALL of Salt Lake County. A recent project of mine went under contract, multiple offers in 4 days, offer accepted above asking.

We aren’t seeing the mania we saw last February/March when I was receiving 32 offers on a listing, but we almost back there.

The cold weather is always the indicator of when the market picks up. Many people say “we’ll buy a house in the spring”. If you are trying to buy, get in the Thunderdome now, before its even more crowded.

You’re killing me smalls. That’s all I have to say to the market. I think this emoji sums it up 😱😱😱.

The market jumped up about 23 more homes active this week.

Maybe its gaining some winter weight? C’mon market, get chubby already!

Days on market are limbo-bar low.

Interest rate increase of .5% announced today. The news labeled it as “the largest rate increase in over a year.” But before you panic, they identified the new interest rate as 3.44%. Not sure that’s gasp worthy. I don’t see that increase running many buyers off given how incredibly low the rate still is.

Are we going to get to a place where we say, “Oh, that rate is over 3%, I’ll just wait.”? If so, the world has become Opposite Day every day.

Boy, what a year in real estate! The highest appreciation jump I’ve ever seen in 1 year. No matter the county, houses sold for more, there were less of them and they sold even faster than 2020.

I don’t think anyone thinks appreciation can be this aggressive for long. Once the Fed starts raising rates, I anticipate a normalization of appreciation. Remember when 3-5% appreciation in a year was healthy? For people in the market when it happens, its going to feel like going from an all meat diet to being a vegan. It’ll be painful for some caught in the churn.

My personal opinion, we won’t see a dramatic price drop. We may see a dramatic reduction in appreciation but I don’t think anyone anticipates the Utah Housing Market crashing and burning with all the strong economic indicators we are enjoying.