@Chris Torbert,
Short answer: I'd be looking for the lowest rate I could find on a 5/1 ARM with the amount of cash I had on had being the determiner of the down payment I wanted to pay, balanced with the highest cash on cash returns I could get.
Stupidly long answer:
I feel I should clarify I'm not paid for my financial expertise. The following is clearly my observations, opinions, and excel calculations.
In my experience 6% is too high for a 5/1 ARM with a 20 year amortization. I tend to think the semantics of 'type' and 'terms' are not entirely relevant. Use language that makes sense.
What you need to settle upon is the structure and rate of the loan that you want, and can afford.
All things being equal, you can get a lower rate on a shorter term loan.
For instance you should get a lower rate on a 3/1 (3 year locked rate followed by a yearly adjustment rate) than you will on a 5/1 (5 year locked rate, followed by a yearly adjustment rate). This is fairly easy to understand when you look through the bank/lender's eyes. The 3/1 is actually safer for the lender in case market interest rates start to rise. It allows them to adjust to increased market and avoid losing out to inflation and opportunity costs. In other words, if interest rates rise, they only have to stick with that interest rate for 3 years, instead of the 2 extra years a 5/1 would cost them. Therefore, they are willing to give you a lower rate on a 3/1 than a 5/1.
Ceteris paribus (all other things remaining the same) the same logic and reason can be applied to the amortization length of fixed rate loans (30 year fixed, 20 year fixed, 15 year fixed...etc). You will find better (lower) rates on a 15 year fixed than a 20 year fixed, and better rates on a 20 than a 30 year fixed. The logic is the same because exposure time is increased as payback period increases.
Further, you should find that if you compare ARM and fixed rate loans of the same length, or amortization, you will see lower rates on the ARM structure, because they will be able to adjust to market.
I prefer using 5/1 ARM loans. Are they riskier than long term fixed loans? Yes, maybe. Maybe not.
Here's merely my opinion:
My strategy is fairly straight forward: Buy right, and hold forever.
It's worth mentioning that the Buy right portion is the most critical. The rest truly doesn't matter if you don't buy right.
Because ARM loans offer lower rates, I use them to produce more cash-flow. I use the cash-flow to re-invest in more properties and repeat the cycle. Simple enough.
Here's where it gets mind bendy and the math gets a little higher than fingers and toes:
Given a 100K purchase at 10% down, on a 30 year loan, lets compare an 5/1 ARM and a fixed:
We'll assume the split is 3.5% and 5.25% for ARM and fixed rate. (note: this may not be 100 accurate to current market splits. I picked these numbers almost at random)
Mortgage Payment:
3.5% 5/1 ARM: $404.14
5.25% fixed: $496.98
Split: $92.84
Split total @ 5 years (60 payments): $5570.59
This is an incredibly important observation, because cash-flow can be easily re-invested elsewhere, principle takes a little more work and effort to move.
Principle paydown:
3.5% 5/1 ARM: $9272.63
5.25% fixed: $7065.46
Split: $2207.17
Total 5 year savings between Principle pay-down and higher cash-flow: $7777.76
At the 5 year mark I tend to think is a good time to evaluate the market and consider your options to include:
-refinancing into another 5/1 ARM to lower mortgage payment
-if the market conditions are real scary, switch to a fixed rate loan.
-if the property has wildly appreciated consider a refi to pull out equity and place elsewhere
-if pulling out equity upsets the cashflow balance, then a 1031 is probably a good idea
In the event of rising market rates, you have paid enough down that you can refinance into another 5/1 ARM and restructure your debt which will help you keep your mortgage payment low, even if you have to take a hit to the principle pay-down.
While you accumulate the savings of a 5/1 ARM and your debt is paid down, your rent should be appreciating too. I don't account for it, but your property value may also appreciate which could help you pull equity out and put it to work in other properties. Other exits would also include a 1031 exchange.
The bottom line is shop around to find a better rate for a loan, and understand the risks and opportunities that you are incurring by making your choice.
I hope you, and many others enjoyed the example as much as I enjoyed throwing it down and nerding out a little. Let me know if there are questions or observations!
Cheers,
-Sam