When is too soon to pull pre-probate or pre-foreclosure lists?

Question

Is it too soon to pull a pre-probate or pre-foreclosure list for the same county every 3 months or should I wait 6 months?

In regards to the states of Maryland (except pre-foreclosure), Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey?

From what I understand, the probate process usually takes a year and the foreclosure process usually takes 6 months.

As my new strategy, I’d prefer to concentrate on these lists. If I’m making 10,000 cold calls a month, I’ll run out of numbers to call in 3 months if I’m calling both of these lists 3 times.

Should I call each list once every quarter and pull new pre-probates every year and new pre-foreclosures every six months?

Looking to get my first deal. I’ve made 35,000 cold calls so far! I’ve had this pre-probate/pre-foreclosure strategy for about a month and a half now. Driving for Dollars doesn’t seem to work for me. I’m not looking to call numbers on the DNC list. However, I have not tried Reverse Driving for Dollars.

Eliott Elias · Answer

I pull these every week. You want to be up to date on these and the first to call, these are usually the hottest lists and the leads people call the most.

Jerryll Noorden · Answer

You already know what I am going to say.

NOT because you at one time, managed to find a motivated seller that so=happened to be in foreclosure, or probate doe sit mean that pulling the foreclosure list you get motivated sellers.

It is not a reciprocating relationship.

Not because all dogs are animals, does it mean that by pulling the animal list, you will get all dogs.

I repeat,

Not because a seller has been in foreclosure does it mean that by pulling the foreclosure list, that you will find motivated sellers!

If that were true answer me this..

If I pulled a list of 1000 foreclosures, how many deals are you going to make from these 1000 people in preforeclosure?

If the answer is 1, that is 0.1% conversion= BAD

If the answer is 10, that is a 1% conversion = BAD

If the answer is 500.. meaning, for every 2 people you reach you get one deal =BAD = LUCK= 50/50

I get it.. great odds.. but do not look at the odds, look at the principle of the system, It would still be based on sheer dumb luck! (and we all know you are not EVER going to get a 50% conversion rate on ANY list)

Lesson to be learned here:

Everyone will say this

"Yes Yes I get it I get it, but this is simply how it is done in this business". Yes, and that is WHY so many of you are still struggling.

The sooner you all realize that "this is NOT how it is done"... that this is "how MOST people DO IT".. and understand the difference, the sooner you will get your multiple 6 figures/month going!

John Slater · Answer

@Mike Schorah

Hi Mike. Pre-probate was painful for me. Instead I focused on new probates filed within a week, then also probates the week of their court date for letters.  While probate can take a long time, they can officially sell once letters have been granted, assuming full authority. I pull new probate leads every two to three weeks, focusing on one county but 3 different probate regions.

For pre-foreclosure, same school of thought. I want to be first person to speak to them, and or last person…. If you were working my area and based on every 6 months, I would have been there several times and beat you to the punch.

Curious of the thought process for every 6 months or a year versus constantly pulling and hitting new leads immediately.

Jerryll Noorden · Answer

Correct. No one said everyone goes to Google.

And again, no one is saying you are not buying houses from people who did not go to Google, nor is anyone saying that you can't buy houses from people who didn't go to Google.

But consider this:

in 2022,  90.9% of the American population uses the internet.

And in 2023, it is 91.8%

The trend obviously is rising at a positive slope.

Look John, I am not here to convince you of anything. I just think you should not make these kinds of posts where you mislead people into doing things that the data blatantly goes against.

Are you really saying, to ignore the 91.8% and spend money time and effort to go after the 8.2%,  that 1). have a 99.9% probability they are NOT motivated, and 2). EVERYONE is targeting those exact people as well?... WHILE the ones that GO to the internet obviously were more motivated because they took the initiative to do something about their issue.

Either way. At this point, I think you are just trying to win an argument without really caring whether you are right or wrong. So it is what it is.

Good luck.

John Underwood · Answer

Not all people go to Google.

I find the motivated sellers that are not using google.

It is a fact that I have bought houses from motivated sellers that we had to reach out to.

I am not promoting any services.

Jerryll Noorden · Answer

If this is your stance:You are not "disagreeing with me". That is the actual point I am making. People go to Google!

John Underwood · Answer

Well said!

In the last 2 weeks we have bought 2 more houses from very motivated sellers. It's not that hard if you know where and when to look.

Anyone telling you different is trying to sell you something else.

David Wurzel · Answer

@Jerryll Noorden

I'm going to disagree with you and here's why:

Based on what I've read, and the documents submitted to the USPO, is that one approach is that people, when seeking to sell property will use the best and easiest found path created via the internet.  That, in essence, it is easier for people to come to you than for you to go to them. If you build it, they will come.   Reason:  most people seek information from the internet and Google in particular.

But, scientifically, it seems lacking.  What is the total pool of people actually seeking to sell?  How would conversions vs. overall seller population be determined?  How many potential sellers use other websites?  How many potential sellers looked at a website and then decided not to sell?  Let's go further and use your definition of MS.  How would it be known how many MS's there are?  How many are willing to sell below market vs those not willing?  These are questions that can't be answered.  Yet in order to quantify the results and/or success of what was built, I would think these are very important.

You said previously that if a person pulled 1000 foreclosures and made 500 deals (50/50) ratio that it would be sheer luck. Maybe. Yet, it's not like flipping a coin.

You state:" Not because a seller has been in foreclosure does it mean that by pulling the foreclosure list, that you will find motivated sellers!"

Yes, you would!  It would be based on the probability that within that sample pool the odds are greater that an MS will be found and that deals will be found.

Because odds are that a person being contacted who is in foreclosure, owns a property with utilities not active, or has a property for which they are the executor will probably want to do something, at some time, with said property. It's not simply random.We find there are really only three types of potential client - the stubborn, the confused, and the arrogant.  And if any of them aren't motivated then it is our job to educate them which and lead to understanding the motivation.  How?  By educating them that in each situation there is legal liability if they do nothing.  Foreclosure - you lose the property, any equity, and will possibly become homeless.  Probate - taxes are still accruing, banks may still have a mortgage, and property needs insured.To us  "A motivated seller is NOT someone who is willing to accept an offer below market value." We see 'motivated seller' and 'willing to accept an offer below market value' as two different things.  Anyone willing to accept below market has made a determination that is not necessarily based on motivation but multiple variables.  Time, effort, financial circumstances, etc. all play into why a person may wish to sell lower than market value.  In other words, "value" is simply what a person will take at any point in time for that property.I believe there are two methods to convert property.  Reaching out or having someone reach out to you.  They both have their pros and cons.  I see one as active (reaching out) and one as passive (being reached out to).  The active approach I feel can easily be quantified and tracked.  A passive approach would be to place a website on the vast ocean of the internet to try and attract.  Yes, you can optimize the website for searches.  But how are you quanifying and tracking?   I understand the approach that leans heavily on SEO optimization so potential clients can easily find a company.  But, it's still just a voice among millions trying to attract a potential client even if it is the easiest to find.

Finally, getting back to the example conversion.  eg. If I pulled a list of 1000 foreclosures, how many deals are you going to make from these 1000 people in preforeclosure?

If the answer is 1, that is 0.1% conversion= BAD

If the answer is 10, that is a 1% conversion = BAD

Why?  Why is any of that bad?  It's not.  Because there is not enough information to make that decision.  If $100,000 is made on that one deal and it cost $100 to aquire then it's not bad.  In fact, if the same holds true then 10 deals are even better.I would ask this.  As previously mentioned - What is the statistical analysis that would make one lean more heavily on passive marketing as opposed to active marketing?  (Forgive my descriptions, they are just my way of defining the concepts.)

Jerryll Noorden · Answer

Hey thanks for the kind words but consider this.(Not entirely sure of what your message you were trying to convey but I think I got it. Correct me if I am wrong).

Out of the gate you make a fatal assumption. You assume that there needs to be a pressing reason for selling for anyone to be motivated. This is very very wrong. Let me explain.

I bought this house here for 7 cents on the dollar.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/52-Stonybrook-Rd-Gales-Fe...

Feel free to look up the address, see who bought it, and for how much it was purchased.

Now, their backs were not against the wall, they owned the house free and clear. They weren't stressing about mortgages either. Yet they were motivated to sell far below market value.

A lot of people when I show them this immediately say "Come on, then why were they selling". My response is this. What doe sit matter? If you do not believe this is real, look up the address. So this is provable. And IF this is real (and it is) it means I am correct. These audiences exist. And if you could exclusively only target THOSE audiences, you would be set yes? Now that is exactly what I was able to do.

What I am trying to teach people for years is this. People need to stop thinking that there needs to be a "logical;" pressing reason to sell for someone to be motivated.

That is exactly the opposite. My most motivated sellers do NOT have a pressing reason to sell. They are just done. It is not owning the house that is an issue. It is whatever comes with owning that house, the pain is far higher than the monetary worth of the house.

There is no rule that says "probates, foreclosures absentee owners bla bla bla, are not motivated", nor is there a rule that says they are.

People need to understand that one doesn't imply the other.

Not because someone is in foreclosure is there a "higher" chance that this person is motivated. Again, if that were so, why do you need to send 3000 mailers to the foreclosure list to get one deal? And add this. Why then do you ALSO need to send 3000 mailers to the water-shut-off list to get one deal? Do you think it is a coincidence that foreclosure people and water shut-off people have the EXACT same motivation? No of course not. A way more feasible explanation is that normal people, foreclosures, absentee owners and whatever list have the exact same probability of being motivated because those attributes (foreclosure, absentee owners etc. etc. do not imply motivation).

Motivation is not a formula. It is not logical. It is emotional. When you are in foreclosure and you are about to lose everything, you absolutely SHOULD be motivated to sell. It is logical, the wisest and smartest thing to do. YET, these people rather pour concrete down the drain than sell to you.

There lies the issue. If it was a logical thing, we all would be able to target motivated sellers. But because it has nothing to do with the numbers, intelligence, or logic, it is completely random. It simply depends on the mindset of that seller to be motivated or not.

So here is what I want you to do to come up with your own answers.  If the probates were truly different, I want you to send DMM, cold calling or texting, to 1000 different probate prospects every month for 6 months straight.

Simultaneously, do the exact same thing for absentee owners, foreclosures, and tax liens.

At the end of the 6 months, compare, not how much money you have made from each list, but compare how many deals you have made for each list. # of deals will tell you how many were motivated.  ROI will tell you the quality of that list.

Then I want 10 more people in different markets to run that exact same experiment. This is the only way to remove, all irrelevant variables from the experiment to determine whether or not probates are truly a different breed.

That is all I can say that will factually determine if what I am saying is correct or not. My prediction will be that the results will be completely random.

If 7 out of the 10 people doing this all can show concrete data that probates cause far more deals to be signed, I will stand corrected. But I promise you, this will not be the case. It will be completely random.

Now, I want to then further address a few more things.

The fact that they go online not looking for a way to sell their house but looking for an attorney is not relevant. If they are looking for an attorney, and not a cash buyer, it could mean, they are not aware of companies that buy houses in cash, or they are simply not motivated sellers.

Keep in mind. Our ideal audience are people who are willing to sell below market value. Let me repeat.

A motivated seller is someone who is willing to accept an offer below market value. And this is our ideal audience. Anyone who is not looking to off-load their house at below market value rate is NOT someone we are looking for. Maybe they will be willing in the future and maybe they won't. But until they are ready they are not a motivated seller.

Now that said.

I think the error in your theory if I could respectfully say so, is that a motivated seller is not someone that "wants to", "needs to" or "has to" sell their house. That is not what a motivated seller is. A MS is someone willing to sell below market value regardless of the reasons why.

Once you grasp that, you can see more options/answers to the scenario you brought forth, that would make more sense and more accurately justify the facts you are seeing trying to target motivated sellers.

If you don't agree please feel free to let me know why, and we'll continue this discussion. Again thanks for the awesome complements (but you are giving me a bit too much credit :D)

David Wurzel · Answer

Jerry, I think you are a genius.  A god (if you will).  I shall avoid blasphemy and not use the big "G".  But probate is a different animal.Think about probate.  A relative (more than likely) has passed and real estate remains as part of their estate.  The relative wants nothing to do with it but...there it is.The FIRST thing a person thinks about may be going online but they're going to be looking for an attorney, not a person advertising that they buy houses.Most people are absolutely in the dark about how to deal with probate and how to legally dispose of the real estate they've inherited.  Motivation is not always highly involved because they're not liable for anything.  Their name is not on a mortgage.  They're not obligated for taxes or insurance or liens or really anything.  Their back is not against a wall.The only time I've seen a slightly motivated probate is when it is in foreclosure and an heir is living in the property or may want to keep it for sentimental or other reasons adn they don't want to lose the property to the bank.  That's not all that often.  But...when it does happen...then they have the option to seek out as-is buyers who can close quickly.

When is too soon to pull pre-probate or pre-foreclosure lists?

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