Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

[Scott Trench]

I know that anytime Trump's name is mentioned, someone gets triggered. Either the post is too anti-Trump, or too Pro-Trump. 

Let me be clear - I do not condemn Trump's policies or necessarily know whether they will be positive in the long-term future or not for real estate investors. Further, "Downward Pressure" may be "bad" for investors, but it may also be "good" for renters - his policies, if I am correct, may negatively impact housing prices and rents, to the detriment of investors and to the benefit of renters, in the near-term. 

"Positive" or "Negative" impacts are relative. I write from the standpoint of a real estate investor, and I perceive Trump's actions to be threatening to near-term real estate investment returns, on the whole. I believe this because I think that on the whole, his first two weeks of actions are likely to: 

- Have zero no impact on near-term supply (deliveries for single family and multifamily homes 2025 are a result of actions put into motion several years ago)

- Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect, other than providing a cheap source of easy social media clicks and engagement for real estate pundits. However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise in anticipation of tariffs, or in response to their implementation. 

- Put downward pressure on demand: I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare. It's possible he carries it out, but I believe it unlikely. I believe it is far more likely, however, that the effect of his stance and actions materially lessens the flow of new illegal immigrants. This will slow new demand for rentals. In the event that any meaningful percentage of 10-15 million (estimates seem to vary widely depending on which news source you prefer) current illegal immigrants are deported, real estate investors will have a big problem as vacancies soar. It is likely that a huge percentage of that 10M-15M illegal immigrant population are renters. Regardless of whether investors currently rent to illegal immigrants, their competition in the market likely does.

- Put Upward pressure on real estate operating costs: Increased costs for raw materials and supplies, and the likely increased costs for labor involved in many real estate related CapEx and maintenance projects signal the risk of increase in costs for real estate operators.

If there is no impact on near-term supply, a modest slowing of inbound (illegal) migration, more reason to believe that the cost of many goods and services will increase, and real reason to believe that inflation triggered by something other than an increase in the money supply (namely the cost of specific goods and services that are NOT housing going up, which comprise the CPI) will force the Fed to raise rates, this, on the whole, is not good for real estate investment returns. 

No, I do not think that there will be a housing crash or a massive drop, nationwide, in rents and prices. Yes, there will be offsets (do Tariffs and slowing illegal immigration increase wages for some workers - likely yes). But, I believe that the actions of the first two weeks should give investors, on the whole, reason to incrementally revise down their expectations for growth in prices or rent growth in 2025. There may also be incrementally better probability of deals, as investors who are dependent on rates coming down may find their hopes disappointed. 

I think 2025 will be, by and large a buyer's market, and that the new administration's policies only, and again incrementally, make me more confident that this will be the case.

What do other investors think? Do you agree or disagree? 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Here's my take, I believe you are missing some key points (or assuming incorrectly :-)

Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect.

I disagree. Presidents can, will and do put pressure on the Fed chair. They hire them and can fire them, it's not realistic to think there is no pressure on them. I say Trump puts his size 11s up Powells butt by this summer.

However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise

You are assuming that the typical view of Tariffs that we hear from the Dems and the Media are the way they actually work. If you listen to other economists, there are different views on this. And once the 'Reciprocal Tariffs' go into effeect, that's a whole new game. This whole Tariff thing should be short-lived anyway, I see little effect on the economy overall...

I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare.

I think Mr Trump will indeed deport 'a bunch', probably many millions by the time we are done, but certainly I would see the number in excess of a million, easy. He doesn't care about the PR either, the most recent poll saw 70% approval IIRC. The immigration was a huge reason he was elected.

Just my $.02.......