Understanding the Current Market Situation in Raleigh, NC (2024)

[Peter K.]

As one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, Raleigh, NC, continues to attract attention for its dynamic economy, burgeoning tech sector, and vibrant cultural scene. In 2024, Raleigh's market situation presents a unique blend of opportunities and challenges that reflect broader national trends while also showcasing the city's unique strengths. This post delves into the key components of Raleigh's market as of 2024, including real estate dynamics, employment trends, industry growth, and the overall economic outlook.

Real Estate Market

The Raleigh area has historically been known for its robust real estate market, driven by continuous population growth and a strong demand for housing. As of 2024, the real estate market in Raleigh is experiencing a phase of adjustment. Prices, while still on the higher side compared to a decade ago, are stabilizing due to an increase in housing supply. This stabilization is a welcome change for buyers who had been priced out of the market in previous years. However, inventory levels remain tight for entry-level homes, keeping the competition high among first-time homebuyers.

Employment and Industry Growth

Raleigh's job market remains one of the most resilient in the nation. The tech industry, a significant employment driver, continues to see growth, attracting both established companies and startups. Biotechnology, healthcare, and clean energy sectors also show substantial expansion, contributing to a diverse economic base. The city's unemployment rate remains below the national average, reflecting the strength of the local job market.

Education and research institutions, particularly those within the Research Triangle Park, play a crucial role in fostering innovation and providing a steady stream of talent to the workforce. This synergy between academia and industry has been pivotal in Raleigh's economic resilience and growth.

Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook

Consumer confidence in Raleigh is cautiously optimistic, buoyed by stable employment rates and a growing economy. However, concerns about inflation and the broader national economic policies continue to influence consumer behavior, with a trend towards more prudent spending and saving habits observed.

The economic outlook for Raleigh in 2024 remains positive, with growth expected to continue at a healthy pace. Investments in infrastructure, education, and technology are key priorities for sustaining long-term growth and addressing challenges such as affordable housing and traffic congestion.

Conclusion

Raleigh's market situation in 2024 is a testament to the city's adaptability and growth potential. While challenges remain, the fundamentals of Raleigh's economy—diversified industries, a strong job market, and a vibrant community—suggest a promising future. For residents, businesses, and investors, Raleigh offers a dynamic environment with ample opportunities for growth and innovation.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this market - comment below!

[Chris Martin]

The scary part is that the Triangle has more than $1 billion worth of CRE CMBS loans coming due by the end of the year, according to the Triangle Business journal. Some of those loans might be under performing apartments that, after a loan reset, might be sold in a distress sale. I'm just speculating, but we've already seen strategic defaults in commercial real estate in the last 6 months or so (example: Marriott hotel in RTP to be released to lender after loan default). If anyone has apartment sector specifics on potential loan rate resets, please post the details.

From Avison Young, about the 2023Q4 Raleigh-Durham office market report, "Class A availability has reached a post covid high (27.3%) as demand for office space slows and occupiers decrease overall hiring." 

I see lots of uncertainty in multiple RE sectors. I don't see any reason to commit new capital in this market given that anyone can get a guaranteed 5%+ via Treasury Direct short-term 4-week T-bills.