Best month to buy or sell based on new listings vs new contracts?

[Tim Ford]

What is the Best Month of the Year to List or Buy a Home?

By Tim Ford, Real Estate Broker

As we move into the winter months, I'm often if winter is a poor time to buy or sell.  For the past few years, I’ve been analyzing the number of contracts versus the number of new listings during each month of the year to try to answer that question. The data is always interesting.

The attached data includes New Listings and New Contracts for single family homes in and around Bozeman, both inside and outside of city limits, but not including Belgrade, for the past 4 years. The New Listings column includes the number of homes that were listed during that month. Big caveat, that column is not the total number of homes on the market during that month, and that is perhaps the Achilles heel of this study. In any given month, there would have been more homes on the market above and beyond the new listings in the form of inventory carryover from previous months that did not sell.

The New Contracts column includes the number of home sales that went pending that month. This is the number of times that a buyer and seller came to a written agreement to Buy and Sell, versus the number of closed sales. When looking at buyer activity, the contract date can be more pertinent than closing date as it indicates the activity level of buyers during that month.

2023

Month	New Listings	New Contracts	% sold v new listing
January	66	41	62%
February	44	52	118%
March	69	63	91%
April	92	66	72%
May	131	90	69%
June	144	78	54%
July	99	64	65%
August	108	64	59%
September	72	59	82%
October	Not	Yet	Available
November	Not	Yet	Available
December	Not	Yet	Available

2022

Month	New Listings	New Contracts	% sold v new listing
January	48	50	104%
February	50	43	86%
March	80	51	64%
April	104	76	73%
May	137	73	53%
June	158	61	39%
July	123	70	57%
August	90	69	77%
September	92	58	63%
October	67	50	75%
November	45	50	111%
December	19	37	195%

2021

Month	New Listings	New Contracts	% sold v new listing
January	69	71	101%
February	74	62	84%
March	91	84	92%
April	99	86	87%
May	109	87	80%
June	145	86	59%
July	131	99	76%
August	108	87	81%
September	106	101	95%
October	66	78	118%
November	51	57	111%
December	33	46	139%

2020

Month	New Listings	New Contracts	% sold v new listing
January	81	69	85%
February	80	61	76%
March	113	59	52%
April	85	74	87%
May	145	132	91%
June	149	148	99%
July	138	153	111%
August	113	127	112%
September	99	109	110%
October	96	98	102%
November	48	63	131%
December	45	48	107%

As the numbers illustrate, there are pros and cons to all seasons. There is certainly more buyer activity during the spring and summer months, but there is also more new competition. There is generally less inventory on the market during the Winter months, but also fewer buyers in the marketplace. Comparing the percentages of new listings versus new contracts; the 4th quarter has the highest percentages, which goes against popular sentiment.

Perhaps the lesson to take from the data is to make the move when the timing works for the individual or family. Some people cannot fathom moving in the winter. Others may have to move due to a job transfer. Maybe a new home has just hit the market that is exactly what someone has been looking for. A big plus for listing homes during the winter is the general lack of tire kickers. If someone is looking at a home on a blustery winter day, they’re usually a serious buyer. As I’ve often written, my best advice for buyers is to get pre-approved and in a position where they’re ready to buy, but don’t have to buy.

This study does not take into account price reductions, sales that have terminated and come back onto the market, and inventory carryover from previous months, but it offers a very quick and easy look into buyer’s and seller’s activity levels.

The included data was pulled on 10/13/23 from the Big Sky Country MLS.