No Housing Bottom

[J. Mitchell Bernier]

Time to eat some crow here. I thought that with rates rising over 500 bps and tighter credit markets housing would see a correction of around 5-10% and would create some more opportunity. However, the NAHB just reported this first positive view on Housing in over a year and housing starts crushed estimates this month. On top of the fact housing has recovered all of the price gains and we are at the same average price for housing as we were last year before the hikes, per Altos Research. And at no point in time, did we see housing fall by that much. 

All of this to say, that @James Hamling you were right. You have called this from the get-go and credit to you. I was on the other side thinking you were off your rocker, but credit to you. 

[Mike Terry]

Mitch,

This is why you are the best!!!! No One can predict the future. This is a very confusing time. My best gauge on where things are going is off more than 50% of the time. I am learning not to predict and just use solid fundamentals. The longer rates stay high the greater risk of downside surprises. I think we all need to prepare for a long haul at 6 plus percent. I am pretty sure the world won't end, so invest conservatively with low LTV positions and hopefull your rents and underlying value we will rise with inflation.