D.C. prices down 25% from peak!

[Jack Seiden]

I was looking through some local mls data and D.C. proper is down 25% from the peak’s in June (725k vs 545k), Montgomery county is down 17% (620k vs 515k) not a shock to me, but still crazy to actually see in the data.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@Carlos Ptriawan

Also contribute to sample size. Only 373 homes sold in DC during January with it was over 600 a year ago.

Without looking into all the data yes the high end market is slow but I would not call it a crash.

I am over the bridge in northern Virginia which like dc has limited inventory and still stuff moving swiftly.

Yeah.. The correct way to calculate and analyze the trend is by creating dot plot chart PSF for the same configuration house/zip code. Median is for newbie and extremely inaccurate.

I could create a graph based on sold MLS listing PSF and that's way better than narrative in headline, some those guys areally dont understand what they're talking about.

I proved so many times that the house price crash in bay area occured due to 2 mil house and above. lol

[Mike Dymski]

Quote from @Jack Seiden:

Quote from @Mike Dymski:

373 home sold, mostly condos and townhomes...it's a small population; so that can skew the results.  Regardless, are you buying?

 I’m definitely looking, considering 1031ing a property I have but giving up the 4% rate is tough. I’m well aware of composition effects and this kind of gets in into a interesting philosophical debate, while I’m sure the exact house isn’t down quite that much (especially in the suburbs, I actually think 25% is fairly accurate in parts of D.C.) the point remains that most people aren’t selling because if they sold they’d have take a substantial discount which is why the composition is scewed that way, and houses that do sell will pull down comps. This isn’t meant to be an alarmist post all, but I think it plays against the narrative I see from some people that prices haven’t fallen around the dmv, we can debate if it’s 25% or 20 or 15 but it’s clear both based on the data, and just play around with comps from June and now, that it’s definitely fallen substantially.

For the lenders and agents on the forums, prices never fall, interest rates don't matter, and it's always a good time to buy!  I exchanged replies with a member the other day that prices are not down from the peak in Phoenix, Seattle, and LA...and transactions are "exploding" when they are at historically low levels.  No sense in engaging with them...they have a different objective.  Follow investors (like Bill above) who are actually buying properties...with their own money and we get reality.  I also agree with your statement in a separate reply that the better sales pitch is actually that prices are down from the peak (where applicable).  I'm still buying.

[Mwazomela Thurmond]

@Jack Seiden I'm definitely curious what the data is for each quadrant, I'm sure it's not the same percent depending on if it's NW, NE, SW, or SE. Single Family tend to hold steady. Why do you think this shift has occurred in an area with more rentals, tourism, government, and military than the rest of the country?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Mark F.:

Quote from @Michael P.:

Quote from @Jay Thomas:

Real estate prices can be highly variable, depending on location and composition of sales. Median prices provide a good indicator of what the market is doing at any given time. For example, Gccar stats show that in certain areas, the median price was at its peak when I sold a row home for 735k - a price which would likely be valued now at between 550-575k. This demonstrates the volatility of real estate markets and the importance of staying up to date with pricing trends.

 Anyone else sick of this guys AI generated posts that are always generated off of previous comments in the thread

 I was wondering why his posts always seemed "off". Good catch. 

 ChatGP guy in action ?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Here I give sample o market that I charted myself, this is the PSF sold listing of 3/2  SF in 95111.
If you see PSF, actually between 2021,2022 and 2023, it's just flat line, in 2022 there are very very homes that the sold PSF is way above the standard deviation of 2021 level. So June 2022 actually never exist, as there're only few homes that's sold way above. Most transactions are in 2021 anyway, although we see market started seeing uptick in 2023.

[Jack Seiden]

Quote from @Mwazomela Thurmond:

@Jack Seiden I'm definitely curious what the data is for each quadrant, I'm sure it's not the same percent depending on if it's NW, NE, SW, or SE. Single Family tend to hold steady. Why do you think this shift has occurred in an area with more rentals, tourism, government, and military than the rest of the country?

It’s not broken out in the data, I’m sure you could break in down farther in the mls, my sense is condos are hit the most, with the ne quadrant and luxury housing being the next most

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Jack Seiden:

Quote from @Mwazomela Thurmond:

@Jack Seiden I'm definitely curious what the data is for each quadrant, I'm sure it's not the same percent depending on if it's NW, NE, SW, or SE. Single Family tend to hold steady. Why do you think this shift has occurred in an area with more rentals, tourism, government, and military than the rest of the country?

It’s not broken out in the data, I’m sure you could break in down farther in the mls, my sense is condos are hit the most, with the ne quadrant and luxury housing being the next most

 in my market , if you see zillow, condo has uptick, SF still going down. Why ? because avg price of SF is 2mil and condo is 700k. It's buyer pool shrinkage issue. 

During bear market, buyer pools on top reduces to buy in mid market, also condo usually has less volatility in pricing (this is true in whole US) compare to SF.

[Jack Seiden]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jack Seiden:

Quote from @Mwazomela Thurmond:

@Jack Seiden I'm definitely curious what the data is for each quadrant, I'm sure it's not the same percent depending on if it's NW, NE, SW, or SE. Single Family tend to hold steady. Why do you think this shift has occurred in an area with more rentals, tourism, government, and military than the rest of the country?

It’s not broken out in the data, I’m sure you could break in down farther in the mls, my sense is condos are hit the most, with the ne quadrant and luxury housing being the next most

 in my market , if you see zillow, condo has uptick, SF still going down. Why ? because avg price of SF is 2mil and condo is 700k. It's buyer pool shrinkage issue. 

During bear market, buyer pools on top reduces to buy in mid market, also condo usually has less volatility in pricing (this is true in whole US) compare to SF.

 Yeah and I do think condos maybe a good buy opportunity, especially in the burbs, the biggest issue in dc is we are actually pretty good at building mid size apartments 4-20 units, so we have a decent supply, plus more coming online always, plus our rents are terrible at least for a major costal, and especially given the transient nature of our city, it often makes to hard to jusify the condo vs renting for an average homeowner. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Jack Seiden:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jack Seiden:

Quote from @Mwazomela Thurmond:

@Jack Seiden I'm definitely curious what the data is for each quadrant, I'm sure it's not the same percent depending on if it's NW, NE, SW, or SE. Single Family tend to hold steady. Why do you think this shift has occurred in an area with more rentals, tourism, government, and military than the rest of the country?

It’s not broken out in the data, I’m sure you could break in down farther in the mls, my sense is condos are hit the most, with the ne quadrant and luxury housing being the next most

 in my market , if you see zillow, condo has uptick, SF still going down. Why ? because avg price of SF is 2mil and condo is 700k. It's buyer pool shrinkage issue. 

During bear market, buyer pools on top reduces to buy in mid market, also condo usually has less volatility in pricing (this is true in whole US) compare to SF.

 Yeah and I do think condos maybe a good buy opportunity, especially in the burbs, the biggest issue in dc is we are actually pretty good at building mid size apartments 4-20 units, so we have a decent supply, plus more coming online always, plus our rents are terrible at least for a major costal, and especially given the transient nature of our city, it often makes to hard to jusify the condo vs renting for an average homeowner. 

 This is my comment to your market:
DC condo market has price stabilization between Nov 2021 to June 2022. Now price drop 5-6% from JUne level. Avg is around 420K now.
DC SF market meanwhile, has overbidding situation between May to June 2022, it only lasts 2 months, and price are generally dropped between 8-10% from top, price is around 720k. 

Both type has not reached stabilization yet but it seems they would be stable soon, especially the condo market. The way your market behaves is more predictable than bay area market, our market i extremely sensitive to rate changes esp in higher end market/zip code.