Inflation lower; what's the rate forecast?

[Leo R.]

The most recent inflation numbers came back lower than expected, indicating that perhaps inflation has peaked (maybe). Here's a summary: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/1...

However, the last time we had inflation like this (late 70s/early 80s), rates increased and stayed up for a pretty long time (years); here's a graph of mortgage rates going back to the 70s:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

So, what's the forecast for rates now? 

I've heard widely varying views on opposite ends of the spectrum--everything from "rates will go back down to 2021 levels in the next 12 months" to "rates will continue to go up significantly for the next 12 months, and will remain elevated for 5+ years"

What do you think, and why?