Active listing is down 60% from 10 year average

[Kenny Simpson]

All 1 to 4 unit Active listings, including condo when you look at the data from the last 10 years are down 60% from the norm.  In San Diego active listings in a normal market are about 10 to 12K, currently today we are about 5K and that will drop off when the slower winter months approach.  When you top that with higher interest rates, less buyer demand and sellers have to sell for a reason this is creating opportunity for buyers.  We are seeing our buyers pay $100K less plus seller credits on on $1MM properties.  We ran the scenario that even with higher rates and paying a $100K + less your payment is very close and with a refinance in the future you will be winning.

What are you guys seeing out there with sellers and buyers?  

[Dan H.]

Quote from @Kenny Simpson:

All 1 to 4 unit Active listings, including condo when you look at the data from the last 10 years are down 60% from the norm.  In San Diego active listings in a normal market are about 10 to 12K, currently today we are about 5K and that will drop off when the slower winter months approach.  When you top that with higher interest rates, less buyer demand and sellers have to sell for a reason this is creating opportunity for buyers.  We are seeing our buyers pay $100K less plus seller credits on on $1MM properties.  We ran the scenario that even with higher rates and paying a $100K + less your payment is very close and with a refinance in the future you will be winning.

What are you guys seeing out there with sellers and buyers?  

$1m, 90% LTV, 3%, 30yr is ~$3.8k

$900k, 90% LTV, 6%, 30 year is ~$4.85

To me that is a very significant difference and definitely not “very close” to the same.  It would have to be priced at just above $700k to have same P&I Payment