Fox Business says the housing recession is already here.

[Charlie MacPherson]

I just saw this article https://www.foxbusiness.com/ec... and wondered whether it's typical news media hyperbole, but maybe it's not

They predicting a 20% decline in housing prices in this economy by 2023.  If that's true, those who bought homes in the last several months when the market was white hot might find themselves upside down.

In fact, they say that the housing recession is here: "Painfully high inflation and rising borrowing costs have proven to be a lethal combination for the housing market, forcing potential buyers to pull back on spending. Many experts – including Shepherdson – agree the housing market is now experiencing a recession."

Good luck to all with the oncoming market changes!

[Scott Trench]

I think that the pundits are going to say what the pundits are going to say. 

I don't think, however, that a drop of 20% from peak pricing earlier this year in some markets is out of the question. A great podcast episode that goes into this is this one with John Burns and Dave Meyer. 

My favorite line in the episode was one where John questions whether it is unreasonabe, after two years of 20%+ appreciation in many markets, to give one year of that appreciation back. 

I think that no, that is not unreasonable. 

While no one can predict the future, I think that strategies that depend on market timing (depend on the market staying flat or appreciating) in the next 1-3 years, are extremely risky. I'm staying completely away from those types of strategies (but I always have, personally). 

For a long-term buy and hold investor, the fact that the market may go up, may go down, or may stay flat in the next 1-3 years is irrelevant. 

I buy consistently, annually, in locations that I am willing to own in for decades. I bought earlier this year, and almost certainly will buy another property in early 2023. I choose to be consistent, but not aggressive so that I can buy into any market and let the decades compound my wealth. I do the same thing in the stock market.