Am I speculating too much?

[Robert Mendenhall]

Hey BP,

Looking for a little advice on this property. Its in east Columbus where a lot of investors seem to be focusing. I'm curious if I'm speculating too much or if my lack of experience is showing. My plan is to use my VA loan for a no money down multi family.

That being said I’ve been trying to get seller credits for a 2-1 buydown on my rate. I’m afraid I’m speculating too much though and the numbers might not work in the future. I’m more concerned with wealth than cash flow at the moment with 0% down, but my biggest fear is not having the flexibility to continue my stack or get out if needed.

I’ve ran the numbers as if I was getting current rents at 4.25%, BP suggested market rents at 5.25% in the second year, and the upper range of current market rents at the 6.25% which would kick in year 3. With the hope of higher rents and slightly lower rates for a refinance before the cash flow gets too negative. What do you think?

4.25% : https://www.biggerpockets.com/analysis/rentals/5988a2bd-bb09...

5.25% : https://www.biggerpockets.com/analysis/rentals/c93994fc-0c1a...

6.25% : https://www.biggerpockets.com/analysis/rentals/b806596f-d4ad...