$33 TRILLION Today's housing market value - How low will it go?

[Shaun Martin]

We were at an all-time high - investors in Denver had been talking peak fo the past 5 years. Cycles suggest we will drop soon. CO-VID has shot unemployment through the roof. Alot of service jobs - do these people own property? What if the vaccine comes out tomorrow? Will we see drops like 2008?

Here are my two cents (please note this is my first post - I am coming from Facebook where people are necessarily tough) I'm just trying to get an idea of this community thoughts. 

Pro's for the housing market

$2 trillion dollar check - (can you imagine writing a check for 2 trillion and saying to the world - trust me - it won't bounce!) - community flow through hopefully keeping money changing hands and rents and mortgages paid. 

10K Loan SBA - for the smart people that use it as runway can buoy market - save there house

Default rate at historic lows before the crisis (always increases at the turn but still they were super low - 2-3% ish)

Houses still being bought and sold (we just sold one in port richer and one in Littleton) - both vacant though but a lot more activity than I expected. 

Interest Rates super low. 

So I predict that the market will drop 5% to 45% :-) HA HA HA - hmmm

Seriously though I believe it is different than 2008. I read a neat paper by Ted C Jones. Ph.D. who looked at recent major events and . 

I'm going optimistic with a 10% dip over this next cycle. I am optimistic that "average Joe" doesn't lose his shirt or feel unnecessarily stressed again. Not everyone has the luxuries this community has - seeing the amazing opportunities the bigger the dip. 

So 10% - by the end of the upcoming recession housing market will be valued at roughly $30 TRILLION. 

Love to hear thoughts and more importantly the WHY's. 

Excuse if this is long - new to BP. 

Sincerely

Shaun