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Updated over 5 years ago,
First RE purchase at the top of the Market?
According to a Forbes article I recently read "5 Signs your real estate market is a bubble"... My conclusion is that many markets may currently be in a Bubble (and therefore it makes sense for me to wait it out for my first investment):
1. Shaky loans - Not sure about the status on this one... Personally My credit score is very high and I have no debt. Not sure if there are others out there being sold on mortgages they cannot afford based on their income, credit scores, ext.(Forbes take is that credit standards are still very tight)
2. Lots of Leverage - In my opinion when there are banks ready to give out conventional loans at 3.5 -4% its getting shaky. I have applied for a pre-approval on several loans and what the bank has approved me for is a very high mortgage that I would not be comfortable taking on with a conventional loan. Although I have heard of many instances in my current Phoenix market that homes are now being purchased with cash many times.
3. Home prices out pace wage growth. - This one is the most concerning to me. My parents live in rural town in Ohio and just sold their home $100k more than what they paid for, and wages are not growing at such a rate to sustain this rise in home prices. I think this will be the next major indicator that we are in a bubble.
4. Foreign demand slows - according to Forbes foreign real estate demand has diminished. I have no personal experience or knowledge of this though?
5. Interest rates rise - Although interest rates have been low I don't believe this will help the wage/home price dilemma.
Am I being caught up in analysis paralysis or is this a legitimate concern that I should not be buying at this time? I have been saving up for a DP and currently I have $16k saved but I would like to save up $25-30k when I buy. Im itching for a deal in the next 6 months but I don't wanna jump the gun either...
What do you think?