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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Either way, I'm waiting on the sidelines waiting for what comes next. If there is a "crash," it's going to be hunting season for people who prepped. If there isn't one, then networking and knowledge seeking continues to be the name of the game for me. Excited either way.
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.
The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.
my curiosity is that there're those 100 billion dollars for the crypto investment lying somewhere right, I meant at the end, folks or organizations that do this crypto crap should just put that money into the banks, or maybe not? where that money goes? is it in a jungle somewhere, Bahamian beach, suiss bank , a coffee shop in SHanghai ? LOL
Imagine if a bank like jp morgan put the customer deposit into one of the ftx/binance accounts, that seems so scary, it's possible because they seem very attracted to the crypto world as well. It's even difficult to trust the traditional bank right now.
I don't believe there is nearly the risk exposure for institutional level anything in crypto your thinking there is.
We look back the last many months we see this slow bleed of crypto, I believe with total certainty that was institutions liquidating out positions, quietly and in an organized fashion as to not rile the "retail" investor. Because in large part, the "retail" investor in crypto has a mindset verging on cult-like obsession with crypto, it's true, if you ever meet one and spoke with one you know exactly what I am speaking of and if totally clueless what I am talking about, fair chance you are one, lol.
Those who have utilized crypto in a utilitarian means, have had 0 reason to exit as they have consistently improved in there utilization, so that segment wouldn't be the "bleed".
All indicators in institutional lvl $, they knew they were playing a fad, riding a wave, and also smart enough to know without doubt regulation, control and centralizing was an inevitability leading to a drop in range of 99.9% value.
When I was young, I've seen so many gigantic scams after scam during the financial crisis, from Bre-X if one remembers, to the fraud where the bank owner took all the money from their own bank and ran away all the way to China ..... hiding there for decade and slowly acquiring new business and become the new tycoon.
So this guy SBF, is robbing their own client, and then using the proceed to purchase real estate in Bahama, but he only stole 3 billion (maybe much more)..... the money lost in this crypto world is reaching three trillion USD. Almost reaching Lehman's in terms of dollar value.
Meahhhhh, but is it reaching into trillions mark, or is it just marked as trillions.
Ok, let's look at it this way. Say a person, let's call him Sam, Sam wen't out a dumped and few K into hardware and setup his own bitcoin mining operation. And because Sam was an early adopter, he started mining when it was under $100 per. And as time passed, Sam scaled up his operation, as his Bitcoin grew in value, and as so many did, Sam held most of his bitcoin profit$, in bitcoin and cryptos, because "it's gonna go to the moon, $400k+".
So at one point, Sam had $8.7m in Bitcoin, and $4.3m in other various crypto. But, Did Same ACTUALLY have that much $ into it? The ONLY actual money Same ever spent was that initial investment, under $2k. Every step of growth was funded via converting crypto too USD. And investment into other crypto was via converting bitcoin into other crypto, and round and round it went. So in truth, Sam never actually "had" millions of dollars in crypto, Sam only ever had millions of dollars in un-realized profits, locked up in crypto. Unrealized profits, not actual USD investment.
So, is a "trillion" in crypto "loss" actually a trillion USD? Truth is, it could be $100k USD that went into creating that trillion.
The above is just 1 example, and there has certainly been those pumping USD into crypto for speculative investment, although if one digs into the #'s, I believe you will find the vast majority in crypto is via the above mechanism to various degrees. Meaning a "loss" in crypto will have a disproportionate ratios of USD impact, because it was never realized in USD.
Remember, the crypto itself is created (mined) into existence, so a "loss" in those coins obtained via mining activities does not represent a capital loss, because there wasn't any, it is a loss of profits, the capital input was long spent in the mining operations previously.
It's not like say a issue in MBS, crypto is very unique for the factors of it's creation component, and the sheer rate of appreciation in the thousands and tens of thousands, mixed with the strong propensity of those who have profited in crypto to have kept it in crypto, and not realized it into USD, thus insulating on a hit to USD. Thus the majority losses are perceptual capital not real capital.
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
It's not like say a issue in MBS, crypto is very unique for the factors of it's creation component, and the sheer rate of appreciation in the thousands and tens of thousands, mixed with the strong propensity of those who have profited in crypto to have kept it in crypto, and not realized it into USD, thus insulating on a hit to USD. Thus the majority losses are perceptual capital not real capital.
Thanks James, very informative.
Ultimately jobs drive everything. The labor market is tight and will remain tight for a very long time “despite” lay offs.
The world’s baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years, major employment firms predict
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
this company is non stop restructuring since 2001. I think they kinda wanna get rid of old manager.
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
So in 2008, the layoffs growth number is exceeding the case Shiller's crashes.
This time, with case-Shiller dropping, layoff growth is still healthy, which is very weird.
I think we need to lay off much more people to make the central banks happy.
They have (sick) problematic economic theory.
Been telling inflation is always much better than a recession, but those grandpas wanna have a recession. Sick.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
One very sick comment that I heard from one of the Fed chairmen today is they want to increase FFR to 7%.
Man.....we are paying institutions to bankrupt us.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
What's worrying is the Fed, Michael.
They seem really not like the idea that the market/corporation is capable to beat up the Fed expectation.
They have self-obsession about inflation as much as some bear-market folks here wanna have housing crash.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
What's worrying is the Fed, Michael.
They seem really not like the idea that the market/corporation is capable to beat up the Fed expectation.
They have self-obsession about inflation as much as some bear-market folks here wanna have housing crash.
Missed the news today as I was in meetings al lday. interesting comments over last two days other fed officials had said they felt better about the 50bps hike. And even in BUllards comments he mentioned it all depends on the direction of inflation in coming months.
Time will tell but it’s still going to take al ot more push. IF they go to 5 not the end of the world. 7% on the prime though…
I half wonder if the comments were designed to cool the rally thats been happening more than anything else.
Here were the comments yesterday: https://www.bloomberg.com/news...
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
What's worrying is the Fed, Michael.
They seem really not like the idea that the market/corporation is capable to beat up the Fed expectation.
They have self-obsession about inflation as much as some bear-market folks here wanna have housing crash.
This…when you have fed officials talking of raising to 7 percent, I don’t think they will stop until the job loses get to their liking. Stocks are off the lows, so I think they get the unemployment rate to where they want it. I agree jobs are strong now, but they are slowly trending to what the fed wants.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
What's worrying is the Fed, Michael.
They seem really not like the idea that the market/corporation is capable to beat up the Fed expectation.
They have self-obsession about inflation as much as some bear-market folks here wanna have housing crash.
This…when you have fed officials talking of raising to 7 percent, I don’t think they will stop until the job loses get to their liking. Stocks are off the lows, so I think they get the unemployment rate to where they want it. I agree jobs are strong now, but they are slowly trending to what the fed wants.
Missed todays news as I was in back to back all day (new post above) Pretty hawkish comments, a day after this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news...
Ahh and here is the other one I had seen about not going to much further from a voting member on rates. https://www.wsj.com/articles/b...
These jerk offs need to get their talk tracks aligned…
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
This…when you have fed officials talking of raising to 7 percent, I don’t think they will stop until the job loses get to their liking. Stocks are off the lows, so I think they get the unemployment rate to where they want it. I agree jobs are strong now, but they are slowly trending to what the fed wants.
I am worried about that.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
this is also the reason why the fed seems so upset with us :) LOL
the strength of this market is, even stronger than 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Even 2015.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
this is also the reason why the fed seems so upset with us :) LOL
the strength of this market is, even stronger than 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Even 2015.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
The dow is only 9 percent away from ATH.
With M2 falling the earnings shall fall lol .... how could a company makes money when net dollar circulation in 2022 is negative and the bond is at 365 years at the lowest point?
I still believe most of what is going on goes back to an incredibly strong labor market. And corp profits up. It’s not that things aren’t harder but we have a rediculous amount of cash in everybody’s accounts form companies to banks to personal profits.
Yeah fed cut back BUT there’s still years of money and little places to put it. Half the reason so many funds started buying homes was just another place to put cash. Personal accounts haven’t been much different (scale obviously) last few years for the upper class.
It’s scary if the fed doesn’t pause and hold because we could go right over a cliff if they really misjudge. I just think it’s going to take “time” regardless of the rates to adjust. Especially since inflation is 40% housing. using BLS hurts big time there.
I think Feb is when we see the big drop in inflation. So hopefully 50bps Dec, maybe one more in January and then hold. Going to take time.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
Quote from @Victor S.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
not news to me. The simple truth is it would take quadrupling of the lay offs to even start to get above historic lows / fed healthy target rate for unemployment. It's a big jump.
Now I was in closed doors all day yesterday so I missed the fed coming out and making a statement that they could go to 7% and yes that could have a real impact. I'm not sure i buy it especially given the comment from other officials and voting officials day before. My hope it's to balance against the market hope that they don't even hit 5-5.5.
If they actually go that high (and I expect real inflation adjustment drops in Feb/March big ones) then yes they could crash the economy. It's a bizarre comment to say the least.
jpow's message has been clear all along. i don't care what the minions around him say.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Victor S.:
jpow's message has been clear all along. i don't care what the minions around him say.
So one guy is dictating the entire planet :)
Even then , with 5% FFR there is possibility mortgage still 6 percent.
in last two weeks there is massive bond buying by foreign parties that bring down the yield.
That’s another bullish surprise, very bizarre.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Victor S.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting.
Jpowell is popping champagne
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...
Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…
Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.
There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs.
Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it.
not news to me. The simple truth is it would take quadrupling of the lay offs to even start to get above historic lows / fed healthy target rate for unemployment. It's a big jump.
Now I was in closed doors all day yesterday so I missed the fed coming out and making a statement that they could go to 7% and yes that could have a real impact. I'm not sure i buy it especially given the comment from other officials and voting officials day before. My hope it's to balance against the market hope that they don't even hit 5-5.5.
If they actually go that high (and I expect real inflation adjustment drops in Feb/March big ones) then yes they could crash the economy. It's a bizarre comment to say the least.
For sure by Q1-Q2 2023 the inflation would be like 5-6% as shelter/rent that's lagging now is catching up.
So if Fed increase FFR to 5 or even 7 basically they overtighten and in one fine month they will rush again to reduce the rate and restart QE. hahaha lol