Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Or fleeing to Minneapolis where the state has income tax of 9 percent and you can’t go outside 6 months a year 😂 

 Elon Musk is going to relocate Twitter/Space-X/Tesla HQ to Minneapolis  lol

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 people and job is leaving midwest too lol

 Job market is still incredibly tight just looking at LPR. Texas and FL have seen a lot of growth but in general jobs aren't tough. And that will continue since we have so few kids these days.

To me the real question is where is next. Remote work is here to stay even the companies trying to force people back to office, are still quietly shutting down leases left and right. So if remote work is not only here to stay but grow. Where is the next big market?

Texas has gone up a lot in median prices. Carolinas have been growing quick although I think we'll see more growth there. Georgia probably has room for more growth also. But the reality is the states like FL and TX that have grown dramatically are starting to hit that national median, SLC has exceeded it so their growth should slow some. 

After this economic hiccup (no idea what to call it) there should be some more mass relocations. The question is what market? Midwest has some interesting possibilities. I personally wonder if arras outside of Nashville would be ideal. Idaho seems perfect to continue the strong growth it's had. Kanasa and Kentucky seem like ripe states if they developed them appropriately, especially to grab from the Northeast. 

Big money to be had if you can get in early wherever the migation hits.. 

Some data:

https://realestate.usnews.com/...

https://www.rocketmortgage.com...

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 Hi James,
With this level of confidence that you have, you could absolutely sell something that's unworthy for million bucks, like the FTX token LOL :)
or you are qualified enough as Chief Marketing Strategist for some new tech company. 

Me,Greg,John,Michael and others are perhaps just too rational investors group that had too much skepticism LOL

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

To me the real question is where is next. Remote work is here to stay even the companies trying to force people back to office, are still quietly shutting down leases left and right. So if remote work is not only here to stay but grow. Where is the next big market?

Yeah, that is the billion dollar question. 

I am thinking it may be a opportunity based action sequence thing we see. For example, TX had great opportunity as being "cheap" and then people flooded there, until it's not so much the same. By old standards persons would say "look at this migration pattern" and project it out for decades assuming it will just keep on in perpetuity. 

I think it's going to be more like when that all popped off. That people identify a place of good opportunity, some start going, talk about it, and very rapidly it scales up to "gobble up" that opportunity until it isn't there any long. Then it will be a next, then a next etc.. 

So i see a lot depending on what local areas do to incentivize people to identify them as an opportunity site. And they have to "sell" values exceeding there negatives. For example, SD has to overcome fact that there is no ocean beaches. Has to recognize what it doesn't have, and create features that can trump those negatives, and then market it. 

MN regularly sells it's position as top 10 cities in the U.S., it focuses on quality of life, education, the place to raise families. There is winter, and it can really suck for 6-8 weeks, but they embrace that making features for winter like ice-castles, winter sports, ice-bars, etc.. Smart cities build tons of services and features in. 

Areas who just leave it to chance, will suffer. Cities and states will need to "sell" themselves to people to gain there residency. 

And really, isn't that how it should be? it once was. 

I had my doubts but I think remote working is here to stay, there has been a lot of pressure and actions to try and squash the movement post-covid and it's not been working to well. 

TN is a place I keep hearing more and more about, on a consistent basis. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

[Chris John]

@James Hamling

I definitely get your point and agree with your thoughts on "Fly Over Country" vs. the idea of what I consider the midwest.  I hate California, but my family is here and my wife ain't leaving.  However, if I did leave, it would be to Tennessee, Florida, North or South Carolina, etc.  No way would I want too brutal of a winter, so a lot of what I consider the midwest is out.  I know I only speak for myself, but I suspect that I'm not alone in that thought.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

To me the real question is where is next. Remote work is here to stay even the companies trying to force people back to office, are still quietly shutting down leases left and right. So if remote work is not only here to stay but grow. Where is the next big market?

Yeah, that is the billion dollar question. 

I am thinking it may be a opportunity based action sequence thing we see. For example, TX had great opportunity as being "cheap" and then people flooded there, no it's not so much the same. By old standards persons would say "look at this migration pattern" and project it out for decades assuming it will just keep on in perpetuity. 

I think it's going to be more like when that all popped off. That people identify a place of good opportunity, some start going, talk about it, and very rapidly it scales up to "gobble up" that opportunity until it isn't there any long. Then it will be a next, then a next etc.. 

So i see a lot depending on what local areas do to incentivize people to identify them as an opportunity site. And they have to "sell" values exceeding there negatives. For example, SD has to overcome fact that there is no ocean beaches. Has to recognize what it doesn't have, and create features that can trump those negatives, and then market it. 

MN regularly sells it's position as top 10 cities in the U.S., it focuses on quality of life, education, the place to raise families. There is winter, and it can really suck for 6-8 weeks, but they embrace that making features for winter like ice-castles, winter sports, ice-bars, etc.. Smart cities build tons of services and features in. 

Areas who just leave it to chance, will suffer. Cities and states will need to "sell" themselves to people to gain there residency. 

And really, isn't that how it should be? it once was. 

I had my doubts but I think remote working is here to stay, there has been a lot of pressure and actions to try and squash the movement post-covid and it's not been working to well. 

TN is a place I keep hearing more and more about, on a consistent basis. 

 Looks like we were saying the same thing same time ( we don't wholly disagree :) ). 

I know MN has done well but I question how much of the population will head there not only due to winters but if you like winters you still don't get the mountain fun that somewhere like Oregon or Idaho might have.

Tennessee to me seems ripe if they can devleop some area cost effectively not too far from Nashville but outside the price points people are playing. Kentucky is obviously next door and to me would require attracting people also but seems ideal. Kansas is another one. I know they get some cold winters but not usually quite as long as MN.

One thing I'm with you on is these cities should look at Dallas and Atlanta in particular and try and pull the same approach. 

As to remote work I work in tech and sit with the c-suite a lot - particular around global talent (hence all my comments on labor markets). All those companies talking about getting back into the office are also closing leases left and right. Besides the fact that they know the younger generation won't put up with the full time back in work approach. They also know they save tons of money, prodcutivity is actually up, the only argument against it is collaboration/innovation. but it's workable just require some changes. So they might be saying they want people back in office but meanwhile closes leases where they can. Regardless of the employee side the businesses are embracing it they just can't get rid of the properties quickly enough.

Remote work full time is about double what it was pre-pandemic. So it's definitely here to stay. So what cities/states will be the next Georgia, TX, even FL? Affordability plays a role which is why I think Idaho will continue to grow for sure (it has been) and TN/Kentucky seem ripe to me. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

 GREAT-GOUGA-MOUGA! How many Amazon fulfilment centers would you guess are in IA? Yeah, I'd also guess like 2. WOW were we wrong! 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

 As far as I understand not much Amazon doesnt' cover. I agree with you on Wyoming/Montana. Otherwise those would be prime targets people would put up with the winters.

So there are data points out there that track package delivers (global not Amazon but everything). Telecomm actually uses that data to predict their own coverage models because as the trends in deliveries change they can use that to predict population growth.

And thats where I feel like the states/cities need to go after it because of the internet (also 5g opens up solutions there also). Even Nebraska is a bit interesting because of the COL. And thats the thing Florida has the beaches and no winters, SLC had the mountains. States like Nebraska, TN, Kanasas all have cheap COL. Idaho as well and it's been growing fast. KN and TN and Nebraska all prime for growth but they need to put in the work (little bit of infrastructure) and marketing. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

 GREAT-GOUGA-MOUGA! How many Amazon fulfilment centers would you guess are in IA? Yeah, I'd also guess like 2. WOW were we wrong! 

 Wow thats shocking. Even Idaho only has 4. A lot of them close together, wonder why and it looks like they have Nebraska covered with some of those so perhaps that is why. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

To me the real question is where is next. Remote work is here to stay even the companies trying to force people back to office, are still quietly shutting down leases left and right. So if remote work is not only here to stay but grow. Where is the next big market?

Yeah, that is the billion dollar question. 

I am thinking it may be a opportunity based action sequence thing we see. For example, TX had great opportunity as being "cheap" and then people flooded there, no it's not so much the same. By old standards persons would say "look at this migration pattern" and project it out for decades assuming it will just keep on in perpetuity. 

I think it's going to be more like when that all popped off. That people identify a place of good opportunity, some start going, talk about it, and very rapidly it scales up to "gobble up" that opportunity until it isn't there any long. Then it will be a next, then a next etc.. 

So i see a lot depending on what local areas do to incentivize people to identify them as an opportunity site. And they have to "sell" values exceeding there negatives. For example, SD has to overcome fact that there is no ocean beaches. Has to recognize what it doesn't have, and create features that can trump those negatives, and then market it. 

MN regularly sells it's position as top 10 cities in the U.S., it focuses on quality of life, education, the place to raise families. There is winter, and it can really suck for 6-8 weeks, but they embrace that making features for winter like ice-castles, winter sports, ice-bars, etc.. Smart cities build tons of services and features in. 

Areas who just leave it to chance, will suffer. Cities and states will need to "sell" themselves to people to gain there residency. 

And really, isn't that how it should be? it once was. 

I had my doubts but I think remote working is here to stay, there has been a lot of pressure and actions to try and squash the movement post-covid and it's not been working to well. 

TN is a place I keep hearing more and more about, on a consistent basis. 

 Looks like we were saying the same thing same time ( we don't wholly disagree :) ). 

I know MN has done well but I question how much of the population will head there not only due to winters but if you like winters you still don't get the mountain fun that somewhere like Oregon or Idaho might have.

Tennessee to me seems ripe if they can devleop some area cost effectively not too far from Nashville but outside the price points people are playing. Kentucky is obviously next door and to me would require attracting people also but seems ideal. Kansas is another one. I know they get some cold winters but not usually quite as long as MN.

One thing I'm with you on is these cities should look at Dallas and Atlanta in particular and try and pull the same approach. 

As to remote work I work in tech and sit with the c-suite a lot - particular around global talent (hence all my comments on labor markets). All those companies talking about getting back into the office are also closing leases left and right. Besides the fact that they know the younger generation won't put up with the full time back in work approach. They also know they save tons of money, prodcutivity is actually up, the only argument against it is collaboration/innovation. but it's workable just require some changes. So they might be saying they want people back in office but meanwhile closes leases where they can. Regardless of the employee side the businesses are embracing it they just can't get rid of the properties quickly enough.

Remote work full time is about double what it was pre-pandemic. So it's definitely here to stay. So what cities/states will be the next Georgia, TX, even FL? Affordability plays a role which is why I think Idaho will continue to grow for sure (it has been) and TN/Kentucky seem ripe to me. 

 Actually MN has mountains. yes, not just hills, actual mountains. Lot's of skiing in MN. 

MN is actually wildly diverse, we have 4 distinctively different geography regions in state. There is high plains, low plains, something forest, I forget it's terminology but it's means old as heck, and more. We even have an old volcanic region. 

BUT, MN is not a great affordability market. Cost of living is VERY high in MN, I think MN is now #3 most expensive state in the US for cost of living. Median home price is $320,000 as of Nov 1st '22', and realistic "average" "middle-class" home price in/around Twin Cities is closer too $640k than $320k. So it's expensive, but, median incomes are a lot more then other states also. Short version, expensive state. 

I think affordability with attracting features. Maybe Montana is a hot next place? Get another oil boom and ND would be a big one. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

To me the real question is where is next. Remote work is here to stay even the companies trying to force people back to office, are still quietly shutting down leases left and right. So if remote work is not only here to stay but grow. Where is the next big market?

Yeah, that is the billion dollar question. 

I am thinking it may be a opportunity based action sequence thing we see. For example, TX had great opportunity as being "cheap" and then people flooded there, no it's not so much the same. By old standards persons would say "look at this migration pattern" and project it out for decades assuming it will just keep on in perpetuity. 

I think it's going to be more like when that all popped off. That people identify a place of good opportunity, some start going, talk about it, and very rapidly it scales up to "gobble up" that opportunity until it isn't there any long. Then it will be a next, then a next etc.. 

So i see a lot depending on what local areas do to incentivize people to identify them as an opportunity site. And they have to "sell" values exceeding there negatives. For example, SD has to overcome fact that there is no ocean beaches. Has to recognize what it doesn't have, and create features that can trump those negatives, and then market it. 

MN regularly sells it's position as top 10 cities in the U.S., it focuses on quality of life, education, the place to raise families. There is winter, and it can really suck for 6-8 weeks, but they embrace that making features for winter like ice-castles, winter sports, ice-bars, etc.. Smart cities build tons of services and features in. 

Areas who just leave it to chance, will suffer. Cities and states will need to "sell" themselves to people to gain there residency. 

And really, isn't that how it should be? it once was. 

I had my doubts but I think remote working is here to stay, there has been a lot of pressure and actions to try and squash the movement post-covid and it's not been working to well. 

TN is a place I keep hearing more and more about, on a consistent basis. 

 Looks like we were saying the same thing same time ( we don't wholly disagree :) ). 

I know MN has done well but I question how much of the population will head there not only due to winters but if you like winters you still don't get the mountain fun that somewhere like Oregon or Idaho might have.

Tennessee to me seems ripe if they can devleop some area cost effectively not too far from Nashville but outside the price points people are playing. Kentucky is obviously next door and to me would require attracting people also but seems ideal. Kansas is another one. I know they get some cold winters but not usually quite as long as MN.

One thing I'm with you on is these cities should look at Dallas and Atlanta in particular and try and pull the same approach. 

As to remote work I work in tech and sit with the c-suite a lot - particular around global talent (hence all my comments on labor markets). All those companies talking about getting back into the office are also closing leases left and right. Besides the fact that they know the younger generation won't put up with the full time back in work approach. They also know they save tons of money, prodcutivity is actually up, the only argument against it is collaboration/innovation. but it's workable just require some changes. So they might be saying they want people back in office but meanwhile closes leases where they can. Regardless of the employee side the businesses are embracing it they just can't get rid of the properties quickly enough.

Remote work full time is about double what it was pre-pandemic. So it's definitely here to stay. So what cities/states will be the next Georgia, TX, even FL? Affordability plays a role which is why I think Idaho will continue to grow for sure (it has been) and TN/Kentucky seem ripe to me. 

 Actually MN has mountains. yes, not just hills, actual mountains. Lot's of skiing in MN. 

MN is actually wildly diverse, we have 4 distinctively different geography regions in state. There is high plains, low plains, something forest, I forget it's terminology but it's means old as heck, and more. We even have an old volcanic region. 

BUT, MN is not a great affordability market. Cost of living is VERY high in MN, I think MN is now #3 most expensive state in the US for cost of living. Median home price is $320,000 as of Nov 1st '22', and realistic "average" "middle-class" home price in/around Twin Cities is closer too $640k than $320k. So it's expensive, but, median incomes are a lot more then other states also. Short version, expensive state. 

I think affordability with attracting features. Maybe Montana is a hot next place? Get another oil boom and ND would be a big one. 

Well your income tax doesn't help. That's for sure.

I'm a skier and I know you have skiing but frankly your vertical is like the Poconos (which I use for my daily turns).  I'm not saying it's not worth while but if the boom in SLC had started ab it later I would 100% own there for the mountains. MN doesn't have that allure or the national parks. But I get your point. 

The dakotas to me never had the weird issues Wyoming/Montana bring. Frankly Montana could be incredibly attractive for growth but the state doesn't want it. The Dakotas might not have said no but they sure ash ell haven't done anything to show they want relocations. 

Anyway I know Idaho will continue to be strong growth. And Atlanta, FL, Carolinas will continue to grow. but I will definitely be watchign for the next state to step up and attract development (business and residential). I do think it's the midwest state just not sure who. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 That's sort of the point though. I think FL will remain strong but it's near the peak as well. TX to your point has hit an affordability limit.

Atlanta has been grabbing a lot and still has room affordability wise but they are getting close. TN has potential but Nashville has shot through the roof - further development is needed. Carolinas have also gone up a lot.

There room for 2 states or so to hit hard at attracting those relocations but many of them will need some development work and incentives. Idaho, Atlanta/Georgia can't take it all. TX has hit an affordability limit. So the question is which state is going to push the way ATlanta and Dallas have ?  The city/state that does that will be a very big grwoth market.  I guess the Dakotas, WI, even MI (lot of the switch has been manufacturing over tech). Cleveland has picked up a few things but it's not been nuts growth wise. 

Kentucky, Tenn, Kansas all seem like perfect targets for me to growth not as much work needed as Arkansas and MO would be and not as cold as the Dakotas / WI. Ideal markets to me to approach wooing business the way dallas/plano have.

 Yeah, I think in coming years it may be a lot of "Oh, I never thought of that place, huh, what's going on out in ____". Think Nebraska, lol, who ever thinks of Nebraska, right. But, it has land gallore, internet just fine, and affordable as all heck. 

Wyoming and Montana, EPIC beautiful places but, big $ and big power focused on holding that land and keeping things as are. Ranchers have 0 interest in seeing Wyoming with 7m population. So places like that will be a bit different i think, where powers are focused on keeping it small. 

But yeah, lot's of places almost nobody thinks about that $400k is a McMansion today, and they have great internet, safe schools, no traffic, and Amazon. Lol, gotta have Amazon. 

Huh.... Maybe that's a metric to consider, Amazons coverage areas of low cost locations with good internet and high quality of life...... Ok, maybe I need to shut-up here and stop broadcasting this, lol. 

 GREAT-GOUGA-MOUGA! How many Amazon fulfilment centers would you guess are in IA? Yeah, I'd also guess like 2. WOW were we wrong! 

 Wow thats shocking. Even Idaho only has 4. A lot of them close together, wonder why and it looks like they have Nebraska covered with some of those so perhaps that is why. 

 I have no idea, I would lost that bet every time! I have criss-crossed IA several times, it is an entire state of big-small towns, with no actual "big" city. The capital has "a" sky-scraper, lol. I stopped at a gas station in Des Moines talking to a guy asking about area and he said "well yeah, were a big city, look we got A sky-scrapper and everything" lol. I thought "wow, that defines this place".    

I have 0 idea why such a massive Amazon presence. I gotta assume some are major regional centers, feeding into other markets like Ill. and MN. 

IA reminds me a lot of Ohio, just nicer. I always feel like in IA a person would thank you after robbing ya, lol. "Gimme your wallet, please". 

Quad cities I used to call Americas Nicest Getto. I have never seen sec8 tenants so clean and neat, it was weird. Quad cities is where we had aquired a property that when i did my inspection I noted it had lead all over the place, lead windows, lead this n that, and i told the tenant that we needed to address things but they'd be ok for the moment "as long as your kids aren't like, licking the windows or chewing on the trim". The tenant got huge eyes and said "OMG, what happens then!?!". I said "what do you mean.... licking the windows...." I was like, wtf, is she serious. And she said "Yeah, what happens, do I take him to the hospital, little Bobby, he just loves those windows" and I kid you not we all look over and this kid is running over to the window and goes to start licking the freaking window! A LEGIT window-licker!!!! Tenant went chasing the kid away and then said "ok, I'll keep him away from them, but, are the chew marks ok? I mean, you said there getting replaced right" and points to a window sill that looks like a Rottweiler had gnawed on it. I had no words, I just looked at my entourage, jaw open and said "I got nothing for this..... I got nothing... Nicole" and I just walked out so i could go pickup my jaw....... 

Oh man, some of the sh#t I have seen over the years. 

[Rob Bergeron]

I'm just not especially worried about our local market here in Louisville, Kentucky. We are like a turtle slow to rise, slow to fall. Midwest seems pretty insulated to me. We are focused on airbnbs, still buying!

[Nathan Gesner]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Wyoming doesn't exist.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Nathan Gesner:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Wyoming doesn't exist.

 Must have imagined Jackson hole the last 2 years then 😂

[Don Spafford]

Markets are always going to have corrections. It is delusional to think it will always just go up. However, when you step back, the long-term the trend is always up. Same for the equity markets like the S&P. There are always periods of downturn. So will there be a crash/correction? Yes. But nobody can say when or for how long, just as they cannot predict when it will go up and when it will stop. Short-term view is always volatile, even in RE. But long-term is pretty much always on an upward trend. 4 years ago you would have been called insane if you said homes in CA would be selling for over $1M. Those houses that were selling for $20-40k back then, probably went down in the early 1980's when interest rates were double digit. If that scares off buyers, then they miss out on the long-term gains. If you sold or didn't buy back then because you thought they were going to keep going down, you missed your opportunity. Don't wait to buy Real Estate, buy Real Estate and wait!

[Jonathan Taylor]

@Greg R. Corrections are happening now in many markets across the country but a correction is much different than a crash. Corrections happen when rate changes affect 1-4 unit purchases, since these are based on comps not income. A crash is a fault in the mortgage system or major market failures which dive bomb values. I do not think a crash will happen but corrections will stabilize when the market says what folks are willing to pay with the increase in these rates. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Don Spafford:

Markets are always going to have corrections. It is delusional to think it will always just go up. However, when you step back, the long-term the trend is always up. Same for the equity markets like the S&P. 

The very deep secret about S&P and real estate is both are simply a function of circulating M2 dollar growth. If M2 grows by 1.5% every year then it's predictable for S&P to appreciate min 5% and real estate by 8%. The problem why we have GFC 2008 is that home appreciation and liquidity balance of power are running faster than M2 growth.

Now as M2 is being slowly declined by the action of CB we expect the reduction of growth in housing  as well. 

If we want RE to appreciate again then we need to wait for next QE round.

[Mahdi Hemmat]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

 Foolishness   little harsh dont you think ?   WE flip a lot of property and build new..  what i have seen is new builds sales are not nearly what they were a few years ago and more in line with 2016 pace.  So far for me at least prices have held ..  In the cash flow deals we do its nothing has slowed down at all so all those cash flow flippers are doing quite well as rents have risen to the point that higher rates the cash flows are just the same and those that have low interest debt are really looking good right now for buying in Jan Feb.. :)  

I think if/when we have a crash it will be the same suspects as 08  CA VEgas Phx  were values ran up real quick.. I sold one of my Vegas properties that went up over 30% in one year and then when i put it on market I sold it for 40k over ask and that was in May of this year.. 

The other thing people are not mentioning and most dont really know.. Is it really depends on the state your in.. For owner occ.. Purchase Money mortgages there is no deficiency judgement allowed by law. This is true in  CA OR WA NV AZ and a few others.. In other states does not matter the lender can and will go after deficiencies ( think Texas) .  This  is one reason the melt down was so severe in  CA NV and AZ in 08  the only thing owner occ's lost was equity and credit score they did not have anyone coming after them ( unless they had second mortgages those the lender can get a deficiency. 

I wanted to add some real stats for my Oregon new builds.. Price points 675k to 850k.. I started 14 specs in Q 1 I have sold 8 of them all for full price plus extras..  No bidding wars of course as I dont really like that  but Zero concessions and Extra's of course carry a nice mark up for all the time and effort we take to customize these homes for the buyers.

But lets talk about these buyers.. 6 of the 8 are empty nesters one paid cash two paid very large down's and decided to use their VA loans so their loans were less than 50% ARV. The others sold properties are put 20 to 40% down.. Again though we are going to have to work for it unlike the years past were it was taking orders. We also have substantial equity in this project with a great bank and banker so if we have to hold its only going to cost me about 10k a month to hold 40 million worth of retail sales and we can do that for a very long time if we needed to.

On our mid west east coast fundings for flippers for mainly investor purchases IE these are rental houses.. so our clients either sell to the cash flow investor or they are BRRR even with rates going up to 7 to 8% on BRRR my clients are in these good enough and rents have risen enough ( even section 8) that these still cash flow with very little or no money out of their pocket.

I just did two in N. Ohio for one of my clients I 100% funded it for them plus i fund 100% of rehab. So all they do is pay utls.. and they refinanced with local bank got 25k cash back and are positive over 600 a month on the two..  that was two weeks ago in just one of the 5 markets i do this in.  Of course I only work with very experienced locals I dont do this for the general public.

 I do have to agree that the housing market is in a downturn. Some areas are less immune than others but the fact remains that the feds are increasing interest rates which will in turn decrease demand for homes because of the purchasing power. 

For example in Hawai'i it actually is way cheaper to rent a 1 bedroom ($1200) or 2 bedroom apartment ($1800) vs buying a condo for 200-300k or 300-400k because the interest is just way too much for it to be feasible. Even leaseholds are not worth it. 

Mahdi Hemmat

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

For example in Hawai'i it actually is way cheaper to rent a 1 bedroom ($1200) or 2 bedroom apartment ($1800) vs buying a condo for 200-300k or 300-400k because the interest is just way too much for it to be feasible. Even leaseholds are not worth it. 

this is just simply a signature of very low cap rate market while median income is also too far off from median housing.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Chris John:

@James Hamling

"This may be a bit out there of a prediction, let's call it my "Thesis",
but I think we are seeing the birth of the MidWest dominance."

I've seen quite a few things in my lifetime that I NEVER thought I'd see, but this one would be up towards the top, for sure.  I mean, are you saying that people will flood out of California, Texas, and Florida and head to Cleveland or something?

 Population count does not = "dominance".    I was not talking about density of population, I am talking about stronger "dominant" markets. For a long time CA held as "the" place for many things. We are in the twilight of that "dominance". 

The midwest is holding as a very strong market, the coasts are showing there volatility and really, what is the basis anymore? Tech industries are migrating, just look at Atlanta, TN and others rapidly gobbling up tech sectors. How about the big changes in Michigan, and again, mass influx of tech sectors. 

It's as if many sectors realized "hey, we don't HAVE to be stuck to this location, we can move around" and are now looking for places that are most attractive. CA and NY, how expensive is it to locate and operate from there vs, say a Cleveland? And when many workers are remote, you don't have to be in CA to have a CA engineer do you. 

FL has long been a boom-bust market, nothing new there so no point addressing it. TX 'explosion" had as much to do with it's affordability last while as it did it's politics. That affordability is now gone, TX is nowhere near as "cheap" as it was just a few short years ago. 

Yes, Ohio is arguably "the" affordable market in US, and with tons of potential. TN is on a growth clip, MI is redefining itself, SD, WI, IA, on and on, in the world of remote working people are finding more and more they can live where it's NICE, cheap, comfortable, clean air, WATER heck how about access to water. What will $750k buy you in San Diego, ok, now what will $750k buy you in SD? yeah, it's a MASSIVE difference, not to mention NO income taxes vs sky high, who doesn't like more $ in there pocket? 

I get it, CA has a beach. Guess what, that only holds so much value. Especially when the beach is also a hobo-camp and you gotta play doge-the-needle to enjoy it. 

Maybe better defined "fly-over-country", because I would say the entire mid-section of country, not just the hard-fast midwest states but yes primarily those with a few added such as TX. West/East coast will hold there mass populations but the wealth, the WORKING wealth, THAT I see migrating out to places worth living in, with a much better quality of life, SECURITY of life. 

Again, I know this is out there, I said this is out there, but it seems to be the way things are going as more and more are engaging in this thought path. Remote working has enabled this opportunity. 

 Hi James,
With this level of confidence that you have, you could absolutely sell something that's unworthy for million bucks, like the FTX token LOL :)
or you are qualified enough as Chief Marketing Strategist for some new tech company. 

Me,Greg,John,Michael and others are perhaps just too rational investors group that had too much skepticism LOL

 Lol, funny thing you mention that. So not my "normal" thing but some months back I was approached by a new'ish tech company who did ask me to come on as CMS, lol. I passed, it was intriguing but end of day I didn't have the same level of faith and belief in the software as they held so it wouldn't be a fit if I don't fully believe in it myself. 

Look, I thought I framed all that with the greatest level of saying it's just a "gut-feel" kind of thing, I have little to no data to support it, little to no research to point to it, no "proof" per say....... then again, neither does gravity and yet we all know it exists and how it works right. (yeah, in case don't know, gravity is still just a theory because it stands unproven. Yeah, I know, wild right, we know it exists but just can't prove it exists)

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

For example in Hawai'i it actually is way cheaper to rent a 1 bedroom ($1200) or 2 bedroom apartment ($1800) vs buying a condo for 200-300k or 300-400k because the interest is just way too much for it to be feasible. Even leaseholds are not worth it. 

this is just simply a signature of very low cap rate market while median income is also too far off from median housing.

 Keyword "Hawai'i". Definition of "special" market. It's not just "a" paradise it is "THE" paradise. A low cap is only a statement of time, not endurance. Yes, I do think it's safe to say the HI market will perpetually appreciate.