Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

@Carlos Ptriawan

this jobs market is going to be tough. Even the csco bright spot in earnings is cutting. 

Jpowell is popping champagne 

https://www.sfgate.com/tech/ar...

 Meanwhile jobs is historically low and unemployment claims fell last week…

https://abcnews.go.com/Busines...

Well no, the rate increased to 3.7 percent and fed is pleased that it went up. 

 Talking about last week's claims. Your missing the point that it will take WAY WAY more lay offs to have the impact you are describing. Especially with so many boomers leaving the workforce.

There are two people here who work in tech telling you that companies are still hiring and replacing those engineers. A lot of these lay offs are finding jobs. 

Long story short it is going to take far more lay offs to actually drive up unemployment. It's still at a historic low and even the lay offs the last few weeks have barely touched it. 

 job reports are a lagging, not leading indicator. by the time you see massive layoffs, **** had already hit the fan. 

job was not lagging in 2008.

during GFC 2008 we have all fundamental indicators agree there was a recession: massive layoffs, the layoff is faster than case-shiller ; S&P EPS is dropping, we have vix at all-time high, all stock market index dropping hard. currently we don't even have that problem, the bond is recovering, the vulnerable tech stock is even recovering even when Fed is dumping $350 bil this month. 

it seems the appetite from foreign investors to invest in the US is coming back and that saves the market. More layoff now is perceived as bullish by the market lol

[James Hamling]

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

Prices are proven to be dropping from peak James . Buying real estate when rates were low and undervalued due to fed welfare was smart. Buying now before prices reflect reality and no more fed welfare isn’t smart. I agree with one thing though, if someone didn’t buy anything over the past decade (assuming they had the means) then those people will likely to continue to be a spectator in the future even when prices drop 20 percent. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

 Why? Ok, I will be the one to tell the brutal honest truth of it; because there spectators yelling from the stands at us on the field trying to instruct what we "should" be doing. 

Literally nothing new, NOTHING new in that aspect. I have done tens of millions in transactions the last 24 months and the entire time, the ENTIRE time there has been this stadium of spectators yelling how we should all just leave the field, nothing works, everything sucks, blah blah blah. 

I can make my clients $ in ANY market. They just don't get it, activity NEVER changes only HOW you invest, the strategy. And if your a 1-trick pony, yeah most days are cloudy and it's got NOTHING to do with the market, it's your tool-box that's the problem, you need more tools. 

Brrr's were great, until they weren't. Flips were easy, until the market changed. The market is a river NOT a pond, it's constantly moving. Look, last while as things were running wild, all these people were complaining to do nothing because things were too good, now saying do nothing because it looks like it maybe could go down if if if.... Lol, they argue to do nothing ALL THE TIME just the excuse's why change. 

In scorching hot market, I did millions. In covid, millions, and now, today, tomorrow, next year, I will do millions more. PROFITABLY. market means NOTHING to me other then what tool's I am pulling out the tool-box to PROFIT from THE MARKET OF THE MOMENT and future. 

This is called real estate INVESTING, not TODAYING, or TOMORROWING, it's INVESTING. Invest means carving out profits from opportunities. Market movements CREATE opportunity. 

They don't get it because of 20/80. Which is honestly more like 10/90. I am a-ok being a 20%'er, got very comfortable with it a long time ago. Trips around the world have a way of doing that, lol.    Wife and I were having morning coffee atop this hill while on safari, as giraffes walked by wife looked around, looked at me with a smile and said "how many said you couldn't do it again" and cheers'd, with the biggest smile ever. She might have said "F-em" too, lol. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

hahaha part of this is Biggerpocket (as a whole) mistake. No wonder John wrote that good post about STR promoters.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

hahaha part of this is Biggerpocket (as a whole) mistake. No wonder John wrote that good post about STR promoters.

I am seeing this clueless fools now pricing there STR down to, I kid you not, $45 per night on say a 3br HOUSE, which I gotta assume it's because there freaking out over seasonal vacancies, thinking "I know, i will just make it cheaper", ugh.... I spoke with one last night, I asked him just who the heck he thought he'd get at $45 a night, and then asked if he has rubber sheets in the place, or maybe wanted to go to a charge by the hour, because that's about who and what he is gonna get.

Yeah, and how many have tried to say my doing STR-Arbitrage is "dumb" because you don't own the property, lol. Well, how many of these who rushed in without a clue, paid based upon STR sky-high rev expectations just to find oh, it actually takes active work to run it, and can't, or suck at it, but great they own this property they can't monetize profitably..... There going to be wishing they listened to me and Arbitraged there start vs purchased.

But know what, when they fail, I bet they will blame the market! It won't be the furnishings from garage sales, nope, no way. Nor the lack of marketing, no way, couldnt be. it will be the markets fault.... Uh-huh, sure it is. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

I have multiple of both short and traditional. It’s statements like this though that’s put you out in left field. 

If you had said hey STR has attracted people who have no clue what their doing - like the 2006 run up did on flippers - then I would agree. THere are plenty of investors who have proven STR is investing. Hell if nothing else the high end luxury market at $70k - $100k a month for beach front or at nation parks proves it. BUt yeah STR is not investing…. 😂

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

I have multiple of both short and traditional. It’s statements like this though that’s put you out in left field. 

If you had said hey STR has attracted people who have no clue what their doing - like the 2006 run up did on flippers - then I would agree. THere are plenty of investors who have proven STR is investing. Hell if nothing else the high end luxury market at $70k - $100k a month for beach front or at nation parks proves it. BUt yeah STR is not investing…. 😂

 Read what I wrote, not how you took it. 

I was very clear that STR is NOT REAL ESTATE Investing, and it's NOT. It is Hospitality Business, and thus, Hospitality Investment.

The word investment is used way too liberally. Real Estate Investment/investing is a specific terminology with a specific meaning, which STR is NOT part of. STR is a Hospitality Business. One can "invest" in a hospitality business, yup, and it has a component of real estate, but it is no more real estate investing then it is furniture investing.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

I have multiple of both short and traditional. It’s statements like this though that’s put you out in left field. 

If you had said hey STR has attracted people who have no clue what their doing - like the 2006 run up did on flippers - then I would agree. THere are plenty of investors who have proven STR is investing. Hell if nothing else the high end luxury market at $70k - $100k a month for beach front or at nation parks proves it. BUt yeah STR is not investing…. 😂

 Read what I wrote, not how you took it. 

I was very clear that STR is NOT REAL ESTATE Investing, and it's NOT. It is Hospitality Business, and thus, Hospitality Investment.

The word investment is used way too liberally. Real Estate Investment/investing is a specific terminology with a specific meaning, which STR is NOT part of. STR is a Hospitality Business. One can "invest" in a hospitality business, yup, and it has a component of real estate, but it is no more real estate investing then it is furniture investing.

 Ehh I look at it differnetly. There’s the investment portion of the business which you are still investing ina property. And then there is some hospitality. Frankly I farm it out - it’s just easier so that I’m just managing numbers. 

But not so sure why you would throw out the entire investment portion of the property. It’s not like you aren’t look for appreciation even if you are grabbing more cash flow. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

As to tech lay offs. This is an example of why people in the field aren’t worried about it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

Billionaire tech investor calls programmers 'the most scarce commodity on the planet'

[Nicholas L.]

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

 October data: active inventory is either negative or zero growth MoM. New listing -15 to -20% MoM.

Translation: price either flat or going up.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

As to tech lay offs. This is an example of why people in the field aren’t worried about it: https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

Billionaire tech investor calls programmers 'the most scarce commodity on the planet'

 It is hard to mention to some grandpas here in BP is that EE/CS/SW graduates already secured six-digit salaries even before they allowed to buy alcohol. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

I have multiple of both short and traditional. It’s statements like this though that’s put you out in left field. 

If you had said hey STR has attracted people who have no clue what their doing - like the 2006 run up did on flippers - then I would agree. THere are plenty of investors who have proven STR is investing. Hell if nothing else the high end luxury market at $70k - $100k a month for beach front or at nation parks proves it. BUt yeah STR is not investing…. 😂

 Read what I wrote, not how you took it. 

I was very clear that STR is NOT REAL ESTATE Investing, and it's NOT. It is Hospitality Business, and thus, Hospitality Investment.

The word investment is used way too liberally. Real Estate Investment/investing is a specific terminology with a specific meaning, which STR is NOT part of. STR is a Hospitality Business. One can "invest" in a hospitality business, yup, and it has a component of real estate, but it is no more real estate investing then it is furniture investing.

 Ehh I look at it differnetly. There’s the investment portion of the business which you are still investing ina property. And then there is some hospitality. Frankly I farm it out - it’s just easier so that I’m just managing numbers. 

But not so sure why you would throw out the entire investment portion of the property. It’s not like you aren’t look for appreciation even if you are grabbing more cash flow. 

I agree STR is more hospitability industry rather than real estate investing. This is primarily the reason I use PMC to manage the Airbnb listing. Because there are these feedback reviews that either would generate booking or kills the business.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

As Carlos said it’s flat. Everybody is sitting tight for some directional input/shoe to drop so to speak. 

That said a bunch of My network saw a bit of a mini-spike this week with the drop in rates. Arms hitting 5%, seems to be creating a temp uplift. Will be interesting to see if we see a bit of an uplift.
 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

As Carlos said it’s flat. Everybody is sitting tight for some directional input/shoe to drop so to speak. 

That said a bunch of My network saw a bit of a mini-spike this week with the drop in rates. Arms hitting 5%, seems to be creating a temp uplift. Will be interesting to see if we see a bit of an uplift.
 

 We can monitor this in real-time using the latest record sales.
What's beautiful is the long trendline is intact, and the predicted sold price in our area is still following the trendlines of the 2010-2014 era. 

This means appreciation algo of "double x standard inflation rate" aka 6-7% still applicable. 

The headline narrative that's saying home prices are down 10 20 30 40 percent, those guys really do not understand how pricing mechanisms and liquidity work.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

As Carlos said it’s flat. Everybody is sitting tight for some directional input/shoe to drop so to speak. 

That said a bunch of My network saw a bit of a mini-spike this week with the drop in rates. Arms hitting 5%, seems to be creating a temp uplift. Will be interesting to see if we see a bit of an uplift.
 

 I've been monitoring various zip codes for more than a decade now. What I realized is some local market is behaving more sensitively to macroeconomic factor compared to other markets. This is very intriguing. For example, when the Fed did QT during 2018-2020. The growth in the bay area is practically flat although interest rate deviation is only moving up one to one-half percent. Compare to Austin in the same period, it has a more sustainable appreciation before the price explosion in 2020.  What's also interesting is to monitor job growth, found out recently that the job growth is actually flat or slightly declined on the coast, while increasing in quite significant numbers in the Southern state. I think this could explain why TX is primarily having a stronger housing market.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

As Carlos said it’s flat. Everybody is sitting tight for some directional input/shoe to drop so to speak. 

That said a bunch of My network saw a bit of a mini-spike this week with the drop in rates. Arms hitting 5%, seems to be creating a temp uplift. Will be interesting to see if we see a bit of an uplift.
 

 I've been monitoring various zip codes for more than a decade now. What I realized is some local market is behaving more sensitively to macroeconomic factor compared to other markets. This is very intriguing. For example, when the Fed did QT during 2018-2020. The growth in the bay area is practically flat although interest rate deviation is only moving up one to one-half percent. Compare to Austin in the same period, it has a more sustainable appreciation before the price explosion in 2020.  What's also interesting is to monitor job growth, found out recently that the job growth is actually flat or slightly declined on the coast, while increasing in quite significant numbers in the Southern state. I think this could explain why TX is primarily having a stronger housing market.

 Thought it was generally known that people have been leaving the west coast and north east? It’s not just texas but Colorado, Florida, Georgia, SC/NC all growing pretty heavily. 

What will be interesting is where is the next migration? Colorado, TX, Carolinas housing prices all at or above median. So where do people go next? 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Michael Wooldridge

agree.  there is such demand for them in other industries and other states.

we've gone real macro in this thread!

anyone have anything on... real estate prices? =)

As Carlos said it’s flat. Everybody is sitting tight for some directional input/shoe to drop so to speak. 

That said a bunch of My network saw a bit of a mini-spike this week with the drop in rates. Arms hitting 5%, seems to be creating a temp uplift. Will be interesting to see if we see a bit of an uplift.
 

 I've been monitoring various zip codes for more than a decade now. What I realized is some local market is behaving more sensitively to macroeconomic factor compared to other markets. This is very intriguing. For example, when the Fed did QT during 2018-2020. The growth in the bay area is practically flat although interest rate deviation is only moving up one to one-half percent. Compare to Austin in the same period, it has a more sustainable appreciation before the price explosion in 2020.  What's also interesting is to monitor job growth, found out recently that the job growth is actually flat or slightly declined on the coast, while increasing in quite significant numbers in the Southern state. I think this could explain why TX is primarily having a stronger housing market.

 Thought it was generally known that people have been leaving the west coast and north east? It’s not just texas but Colorado, Florida, Georgia, SC/NC all growing pretty heavily. 

What will be interesting is where is the next migration? Colorado, TX, Carolinas housing prices all at or above median. So where do people go next? 

There's more detail on this, the biggest loser is actually northeast with half a million jobs gone. The west is actually flat in terms of job growth. While the midwest is losing jobs as well. The highest job growth/addition and higher quality are actually in Austin/DFW and FL. I guess that's the primary reason why there's explosive home appreciation in that area. What's interesting is there's another subset of uncorrelated data that's showing that CRE development is huge for this specific market.

[James Hamling]

@Carlos Ptriawan Michael Burry making some interesting, cryptic statements, especially when reviewed against his known allocations. 

Some taking this, with tunnel-vision of just last "headline" statement, to mean a collapse of "everything" in '23'. 

When put in context, looks a LOT like a major stagflation prediction. 

For those not in the know Stagflation is in simplest explanation; high prices low volume. So think, prices pressured at higher levels WITHOUT capacity to drop via demand cycle due to various factors, but think things like shortage of supply and costs to produce new supply forced to hold higher level from cost-of-goods, taxes, regulation etc.      For example, say world oil out-put is cut by 50%, because that's simply what supply there is. And a refinery burns to the ground. Gas prices in U.S. hit say $12 per gal.    Volume would massively drop due to affordability BUT, prices don't tumble to say $5 because of the pressure holding a minimum basis of say $10 gal, because of those costs and supply shortage far exceeding what demand can drop. People HAVE TO buy a certain amount of fuel, there is a base required level of transportation. 

The argument used by all, that I have read thus far, on housing price/rents collapse completely removes this factoring for base foundational pricing. They argue people will sell there homes in mass, at big financial loss, with 0 explanation of where those people will be going to live. Or why they would do such at big financial loss. '09'-'12' completely disproves that theory as people STAYED in the homes when financially underwater until FORCED out via interdicting force actions. AND when dislocated, they became RENTERS. Housing is NON optional, Starbucks is optional, a roof over one's head is NOT. 

So, a "collapse" in one segment, like retail, does NOT direct translate to a fundamental human need segment such as housing. 

I DO, 100%, see significant changes coming to spending patterns, retail segments, without doubt. Layoff's to match ALTHOUGH remember there is BIG net shortages in various job sectors today, struggling hard to get persons. Blue collar skilled worker positions have been desperate, various tech sectors struggling. Unemployment does NOT mean 4-ever unemployment, it can be a great catalyst for re-employment via re-training. And that can be a very healthy thing especially if an economy is, as this one is, struggling on skeleton-crews in many segments. 

Big X-factors out there; does Gov. jump in to negatively impact this transition HEALTHY action by say, paying people to sit at home and NOT shift industries/ positions, thus delaying the reinvigoration cycle. I wouldn't be surprised. 

Covid gov. reaction created an employment "bubble", and consumer spending "bubble". To some degree it was a smart action but I strongly believe they over-cooked-it, over shot big time. Would have done better if they devoted say 50% of that spending for persons actively engaged in some form of skill development at that free-time. We could have come out of this with persons having much greater skill capacity, and economy would have reaped benefit of such. 

I hold to my same forecast I have been long saying, and has been proving correct. I forecasted a step back, localized deviations from that national median, and stagflation factors coming into force. I even forecasted a 50 basis point raise in December. I have mentioned to big shifts come Q1 '23'. AND come summer market '23', the biggest most "historic" housing shortage "crisis" the U.S. has ever known. I am not talking to buy, or to rent, just in general period. Lot's of persons struggling harder then ever to gain and retain housing. Rental demand will explode, EXPLODE, to a point where it will grab national headlines. Question is how gov. will respond. Could be through corporate level incentives for MFH investors to rapidly build supply, could be smarter via mass spending bill sent to states to fund there implementation of actions as best suites there individual markets. Either way, there will be some interdicting actions. 

[James Hamling]

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Notice how all the chanting of "crash CRASH" has now shifted hard into reading tea leaves of "it's coming, IT'S COMING..... someday" lol. 

In 2020, somewhere in America, there was a bearded, weary old warn out guy who threw off his sandwich board sign, did a jump for joy, yelling and hooting, grabbing people saying "see, SEE, I TOLD YOU SO, you all laughed at me. year after year, decade after decade, but I KNEW IT, when Nixon got thrown out I KNEW any day those damn ____ were gonna get us with a virus" LMAO. 

Know who sits the sidelines and waits for things to happen, SPECTATORS. How many games you ever seen a spectator win, yup, 0. 

Feel free to lie to yourself how spectating will lead to playing in the game, by all means reduce competition, I appreciate the profits from others non-participation. But don't try to get me to chug your arsenic kool-aid with ya. 

Market appreciates, I got strategies for that. Market stagnates, I got strategies for that. Market drops, I-got-strategies-for-that. I'm a Pro-player, rain or shine, hot or cold, I play the game and score goals regardless of conditions. The conditions are just part of the sport. If you only play on perfect sunny days of temperate temps between _ and _, when humidity is under _, blah blah blah, lol, well hell you might get "A" game of two in before ya die. Good luck with that. 

But I suppose, some truth that if you never play you can never lose right. You can also never win, never get better, never move forward. No thanks, sounds like a miserable life. 

Hey, remember that guy who never risked? Yeah, neither do I, or anyone else. 

 there's huge difference between headline narratives and trendline narratives.

This is BULLISH:
- Dollar is 3 months low
- Dow is 9 percent away from ATH 
- Yield is dropping below 4 now and mortgage rate is crashing 50bps to 6.6 
- Long term bond got the highest record # of bid
- Vix at all time low
- corporate America is giving higher guidance for the whole next year
- active real estate in US MoM inventory is ZERO, this is extremely bullish for stable price action LOL
- 25% of real estate purchases are cash buyers and they keep buying more every month.

Just a month ago, all indicators above signaling a bearish market. not sure why people unhappy

I won’t be happy until I see 2023 rental income similar to 2022, if it is, I’ll build more. 

Even I'm not expecting that more like 5-7% down. Well assuming you mean first half of 22/last half of 2021. I assume we are talkign about STR of course.

More profit is always good but I need to do something with cash. I guess the alternative is you could go into the markets but it's hard not to see the current run up as a bit of a bull trap. But then I'm just honestly comfortable with real estate I know how to not lose money there. Stocks have too much variance and no passive so I just don't care for it - not to mention more write offs with housing.

STR is a whole different conversation, COMPLETLY different everything.

First off, STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it just is not. STR is as much real estate investing as a car wash is REI, or a McDonalds is REI. STR is micro-HOSPITALITY business. It has vastly different factors to it.

Not to mention the plethora rushing into the segment with little to no clue what the heck there doing, and then making a race to the bottom with prices to try and overcome their ineptness in running a hospitality asset. 

We have mass flooding of the market in not just offerings but also poorly ran units. There absolutely with 100% certainty will be various "Crashes" in the STR segment, hyper localized in there expression though, and extremely short-ran durations.

And it's a GOOD thing, it's a growing pain, a coming of age for the STR industry and segment. It's the STR gold-rush and just like the Yukon most will go bust for the market to find itself.

I have multiple of both short and traditional. It’s statements like this though that’s put you out in left field. 

If you had said hey STR has attracted people who have no clue what their doing - like the 2006 run up did on flippers - then I would agree. THere are plenty of investors who have proven STR is investing. Hell if nothing else the high end luxury market at $70k - $100k a month for beach front or at nation parks proves it. BUt yeah STR is not investing…. 😂

 Read what I wrote, not how you took it. 

I was very clear that STR is NOT REAL ESTATE Investing, and it's NOT. It is Hospitality Business, and thus, Hospitality Investment.

The word investment is used way too liberally. Real Estate Investment/investing is a specific terminology with a specific meaning, which STR is NOT part of. STR is a Hospitality Business. One can "invest" in a hospitality business, yup, and it has a component of real estate, but it is no more real estate investing then it is furniture investing.

 Ehh I look at it differnetly. There’s the investment portion of the business which you are still investing ina property. And then there is some hospitality. Frankly I farm it out - it’s just easier so that I’m just managing numbers. 

But not so sure why you would throw out the entire investment portion of the property. It’s not like you aren’t look for appreciation even if you are grabbing more cash flow. 

In Real Estate Investing; the real estate itself is "the" investment. The asset is the business. There is the business component of renting out, conveying use of the property, or doing some change to the property to re-sell at profit, but follow that the business is the property itself. 

STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, because while there is a property, the business is not the property itself, it is the Hospitality. The property itself is not leased by people. It is the FURNISHED property, the location, the packaging. I get it, it does seem much like real estate investing but ask yourself this, is Hilton a real estate investor? No, they are a business, just like McDonalds. They sell a service, the service sold is a user experience.

In real estate investing we "sell" a product, not a service. The "buyer" uses the product in connection to other actions. 

Again, STR has a real estate component, but the real estate itself is not the whole, just a part. The real estate is simply where a person provides the service that customers purchase. One can do STR without ownership of the property, one can do STR with a tent, or even just raw land, I have seen these.

Also "investing" is different then "an investment". GM makes "investments" in it's robotic assembly line systems, right, but those are just assets to perform the construct of making there final product of which they sell. The "investment" is a function of the business. In STR the property is similarly just a component of the "production" to make the final product which is a service. Hospitality is a Service industry, not a product industry.

Real Estate Investing is an asset industry, more similar to ownership and trade of stock. 

Think of the operational aspect, STR is an active business operation. It requires a continuous active day-2-day operations.

There is many many aspects to this but end of day it all boils down to the defining difference that STR is NOT Real Estate Investing, it has a component of such, so STR can and most often does incorporate Real Estate Investing but it is, not in and of itself, REI.

Real Estate Investing can utilize STR. But again, each is distinctly separate.

This is a BIG part to the whole calamity in STR many are getting into. Not all, many are great at STR but I assure you all ro near to all of those doing well in STR "get-it" that STR is a Hospitality Business.

Similarly, a 200 unit community in MFH is more then just Real Estate Investing. 

It's a distinction between an active B-2-C business, and a stand alone "investment". 

Maybe more said to say a standard rental is 90% investing and 10% business operation, and STR is 90% business operation and 10% investment. Look at the allocation of actions over say, 5yr span. In STR those actions associated with the real estate is a very tiny portion of the whole. It's a 1 time event/ action and the operating of the asset, it's the everything, right. In a standard rental it's a passive action, setting a user contract and walk away. I know, there is PM but in fundamental PM is an over-sight activity not an active action. There is brief windows of active actions but let's look at say a 3yr lease, over the 3yrs there is maybe 14 days of active actions at most when figuring a standard 8hr day and going by labor hrs of input. Honestly, the ideal window is 8 labor hrs per yr of leasing. yeah, ~$100mnth of PM does not purchase a whole lot of labor hrs. How much is the average service provider in real estate, yeah, around $100 per hr billing rate right.

I get it that this defining line is hard for many to understand or see the distinction of, but this is a major defining line of difference and it's why the BIG impacts of results stand. We have people jumping into STR thinking, incorrectly, it's real estate investing, and then suffering for not comprehending the very active business operation aspect and trying to do it passively.

And on aspect of hiring management, I can buy a restaurant and hire a GM to run everything, it does nto make it Real Estate Investing, it is food service. The real estate is a component, how one acquires the real estate, positioning, it will impact the business BUT end of day it's not the product, what is being done at the site of real estate is the product that dictates profitability. 

In REI, the asset itself dictates profitability. In STR, the service itself dictates profitability, a great property can do poor performance in str disconnected from the property itself.

Picking up what I am putting down?