However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.

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Anibal Mijangos

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Los Angeles, CA

Anibal Mijangos

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Los Angeles, CA

Replied November 17, 2022 10:03

Either way, I'm waiting on the sidelines waiting for what comes next. If there is a "crash," it's going to be hunting season for people who prepped. If there isn't one, then networking and knowledge seeking continues to be the name of the game for me. Excited either way.

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James Hamling

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James Hamling

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Replied November 17, 2022 10:29

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I am actually more curious why we have not had stock market crashes after all crypto exchange crashes, the number of dollar losses in those scams are fundamentally so huge it could wipeout a country to poverty. Note that those crypto company was invested by the company like Blackrock,GS,JP Morgan, and even Singaporean SWF etc. Why there's no contagion still ? The vix is at all time low indicating no fear. There seems eerie quiet about what's going on.

The market is where the $ ran to. Dumping crypto and rushing into the "old standard" vehicles. Yes, I am VERY bearish on bitcoin, especially now that Fed is publicly giving notice of it's digital dollar and it is now in implementation phase. All other cryptos are soon to go the way of beanie babies.

my curiosity is that there're those 100 billion dollars for the crypto investment lying somewhere right, I meant at the end, folks or organizations that do this crypto crap should just put that money into the banks, or maybe not? where that money goes? is it in a jungle somewhere, Bahamian beach, suiss bank , a coffee shop in SHanghai ? LOL

Imagine if a bank like jp morgan put the customer deposit into one of the ftx/binance accounts, that seems so scary, it's possible because they seem very attracted to the crypto world as well. It's even difficult to trust the traditional bank right now.

I don't believe there is nearly the risk exposure for institutional level anything in crypto your thinking there is.

We look back the last many months we see this slow bleed of crypto, I believe with total certainty that was institutions liquidating out positions, quietly and in an organized fashion as to not rile the "retail" investor. Because in large part, the "retail" investor in crypto has a mindset verging on cult-like obsession with crypto, it's true, if you ever meet one and spoke with one you know exactly what I am speaking of and if totally clueless what I am talking about, fair chance you are one, lol.

Those who have utilized crypto in a utilitarian means, have had 0 reason to exit as they have consistently improved in there utilization, so that segment wouldn't be the "bleed".

All indicators in institutional lvl $, they knew they were playing a fad, riding a wave, and also smart enough to know without doubt regulation, control and centralizing was an inevitability leading to a drop in range of 99.9% value.

When I was young, I've seen so many gigantic scams after scam during the financial crisis, from Bre-X if one remembers, to the fraud where the bank owner took all the money from their own bank and ran away all the way to China ..... hiding there for decade and slowly acquiring new business and become the new tycoon.

So this guy SBF, is robbing their own client, and then using the proceed to purchase real estate in Bahama, but he only stole 3 billion (maybe much more)..... the money lost in this crypto world is reaching three trillion USD. Almost reaching Lehman's in terms of dollar value.

Meahhhhh, but is it reaching into trillions mark, or is it just marked as trillions.

Ok, let's look at it this way. Say a person, let's call him Sam, Sam wen't out a dumped and few K into hardware and setup his own bitcoin mining operation. And because Sam was an early adopter, he started mining when it was under $100 per. And as time passed, Sam scaled up his operation, as his Bitcoin grew in value, and as so many did, Sam held most of his bitcoin profit$, in bitcoin and cryptos, because "it's gonna go to the moon, $400k+".

So at one point, Sam had $8.7m in Bitcoin, and $4.3m in other various crypto. But, Did Same ACTUALLY have that much $ into it? The ONLY actual money Same ever spent was that initial investment, under $2k. Every step of growth was funded via converting crypto too USD. And investment into other crypto was via converting bitcoin into other crypto, and round and round it went. So in truth, Sam never actually "had" millions of dollars in crypto, Sam only ever had millions of dollars in un-realized profits, locked up in crypto. Unrealized profits, not actual USD investment.

So, is a "trillion" in crypto "loss" actually a trillion USD? Truth is, it could be $100k USD that went into creating that trillion.

The above is just 1 example, and there has certainly been those pumping USD into crypto for speculative investment, although if one digs into the #'s, I believe you will find the vast majority in crypto is via the above mechanism to various degrees. Meaning a "loss" in crypto will have a disproportionate ratios of USD impact, because it was never realized in USD.

Remember, the crypto itself is created (mined) into existence, so a "loss" in those coins obtained via mining activities does not represent a capital loss, because there wasn't any, it is a loss of profits, the capital input was long spent in the mining operations previously.

It's not like say a issue in MBS, crypto is very unique for the factors of it's creation component, and the sheer rate of appreciation in the thousands and tens of thousands, mixed with the strong propensity of those who have profited in crypto to have kept it in crypto, and not realized it into USD, thus insulating on a hit to USD. Thus the majority losses are perceptual capital not real capital.