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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
I was referencing the count. Twitter and Meta are unique scenarios. The rest are meaningless. Even the companies doing more painful jobs cuts have been relatively small compared to historic. And I've got a very good idea of what are coming for job cuts for quite a big portion of those companies. So far nothing is a big surprise other than Meta being lighter.
but they are all tiny cuts, inconsequential.
This could easily balloon WAY beyond where we're at now.
dude........what matters is aggregated (engineering) jobs........look at data from BLS , from monster.com ; we have record employment for engineering/professional service, imagine last quarter our UNemployment is only 1.9% LOL .... that's the highest record in advanced economy ever possible.
Quote from @Nick H.:
@Greg R. people are giving you very good clues as to what will happen and why, and all you do is dismiss.
Unemployment is extremely low. It has/will increase, slightly. In 2009 it was 10% or so. Now it's around 3.5% and maybe it will get to 4%. Pay attention to the data, not headlines and narrative. Michael isn't talking about a layoff not being a tough situation for the person laid off - he's clearly talking about the topic of discussion here as it relates to housing prices crashing.
You've constantly referenced specific cities on here that you cherry pick, that show down turns (like Dallas and Austin i guess?). Cherry picking is a great way to bias data in an attempt to prove a point that isn't true. But it intentionally ignores the other markets that have not gone down (or slightly).
You cherry pick the data that you like as well, only accepting redfins display of average home price (which seems to not seasonally adjust their data - which is why May 2022 is the peak, June 2021 is the peak, etc). You reject any zillow data because it hurts your point. I think you even rejected the fed data, which is kind of wild. Just redfin or bust because they don't seasonally adjust, so it sort of looks like a lofty drop.
There has been and remains an extremely low likelihood that prices will crash like you expected (and still expect?). Seems pretty clear the bulk of the people on here that are putting out actual arguments/logic/data behind why it hasn't crashed and why it won't, outnumbers those that think it will crash. This is consistent with analyst reports, etc, like Goldman, who do not think it will crash.
The real estate market is not crashing and is very unlikely to crash. As the bulk of ppl on here have said, it's very possible it will correct slightly (0-5% correction on the low side and 10-15% correction on the high side, with the average guess probably in the 5-10% correction zone?).
Truth is you don't know where unemployment will end up any better than me. Further, all employment isn't equal. High paying tech jobs are not equal to low paying service jobs. Many large and publicly traded companies are planning and have already announced mass layoffs, and that's a fact.
There's no cherry picking going on. I focus on the markets local to me and ones where I own RE. The reason I never talk about Michigan is because I have no interest in that market. I don't own any properties there and don't plan to; therefore, I don't care what's going on there.
So if cherry picking is me focusing on markets are relevant to me, then a vast majority of us are guilty.
You seem to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and are dismissing what's happening in markets like TX. From May to Sep Austin already corrected almost 19%. However, according to your baseless claim that would be impossible since the high hide is 10-15% correction.
Show me evidence that the data published by redfin is inaccurate and I'll stop citing it.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
I was referencing the count. Twitter and Meta are unique scenarios. The rest are meaningless. Even the companies doing more painful jobs cuts have been relatively small compared to historic. And I've got a very good idea of what are coming for job cuts for quite a big portion of those companies. So far nothing is a big surprise other than Meta being lighter.
but they are all tiny cuts, inconsequential.
This could easily balloon WAY beyond where we're at now.
dude........what matters is aggregated (engineering) jobs........look at data from BLS , from monster.com ; we have record employment for engineering/professional service, imagine last quarter our UNemployment is only 1.9% LOL .... that's the highest record in advanced economy ever possible.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nick H.:
@Greg R. people are giving you very good clues as to what will happen and why, and all you do is dismiss.
Unemployment is extremely low. It has/will increase, slightly. In 2009 it was 10% or so. Now it's around 3.5% and maybe it will get to 4%. Pay attention to the data, not headlines and narrative. Michael isn't talking about a layoff not being a tough situation for the person laid off - he's clearly talking about the topic of discussion here as it relates to housing prices crashing.
You've constantly referenced specific cities on here that you cherry pick, that show down turns (like Dallas and Austin i guess?). Cherry picking is a great way to bias data in an attempt to prove a point that isn't true. But it intentionally ignores the other markets that have not gone down (or slightly).
You cherry pick the data that you like as well, only accepting redfins display of average home price (which seems to not seasonally adjust their data - which is why May 2022 is the peak, June 2021 is the peak, etc). You reject any zillow data because it hurts your point. I think you even rejected the fed data, which is kind of wild. Just redfin or bust because they don't seasonally adjust, so it sort of looks like a lofty drop.
There has been and remains an extremely low likelihood that prices will crash like you expected (and still expect?). Seems pretty clear the bulk of the people on here that are putting out actual arguments/logic/data behind why it hasn't crashed and why it won't, outnumbers those that think it will crash. This is consistent with analyst reports, etc, like Goldman, who do not think it will crash.
The real estate market is not crashing and is very unlikely to crash. As the bulk of ppl on here have said, it's very possible it will correct slightly (0-5% correction on the low side and 10-15% correction on the high side, with the average guess probably in the 5-10% correction zone?).
There's no cherry picking going on. I focus on the markets local to me and ones where I own RE. The reason I never talk about Michigan is because I have no interest in that market. I don't own any properties there and don't plan to; therefore, I don't care what's going on there.
So if cherry picking is me focusing on markets are relevant to me, than a vast majority of us are guilty.
You seem to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and are dismissing what's happening in markets like TX. From May to Sep Austin already corrected almost 19%. However, according to your baseless claim that would be impossible since the high hide is 10-15% correction.
Show me evidence that the data published by redfin is inaccurate and I'll stop citing it.
When did I say anything about Michigan? I'm talking about all 50 states, the whole market.
What you are describing - focusing on your markets - is the definition of cherry picking. We're talking about the the entire US housing market.
Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nick H.:
@Greg R. people are giving you very good clues as to what will happen and why, and all you do is dismiss.
Unemployment is extremely low. It has/will increase, slightly. In 2009 it was 10% or so. Now it's around 3.5% and maybe it will get to 4%. Pay attention to the data, not headlines and narrative. Michael isn't talking about a layoff not being a tough situation for the person laid off - he's clearly talking about the topic of discussion here as it relates to housing prices crashing.
You've constantly referenced specific cities on here that you cherry pick, that show down turns (like Dallas and Austin i guess?). Cherry picking is a great way to bias data in an attempt to prove a point that isn't true. But it intentionally ignores the other markets that have not gone down (or slightly).
You cherry pick the data that you like as well, only accepting redfins display of average home price (which seems to not seasonally adjust their data - which is why May 2022 is the peak, June 2021 is the peak, etc). You reject any zillow data because it hurts your point. I think you even rejected the fed data, which is kind of wild. Just redfin or bust because they don't seasonally adjust, so it sort of looks like a lofty drop.
There has been and remains an extremely low likelihood that prices will crash like you expected (and still expect?). Seems pretty clear the bulk of the people on here that are putting out actual arguments/logic/data behind why it hasn't crashed and why it won't, outnumbers those that think it will crash. This is consistent with analyst reports, etc, like Goldman, who do not think it will crash.
The real estate market is not crashing and is very unlikely to crash. As the bulk of ppl on here have said, it's very possible it will correct slightly (0-5% correction on the low side and 10-15% correction on the high side, with the average guess probably in the 5-10% correction zone?).
There's no cherry picking going on. I focus on the markets local to me and ones where I own RE. The reason I never talk about Michigan is because I have no interest in that market. I don't own any properties there and don't plan to; therefore, I don't care what's going on there.
So if cherry picking is me focusing on markets are relevant to me, than a vast majority of us are guilty.
You seem to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and are dismissing what's happening in markets like TX. From May to Sep Austin already corrected almost 19%. However, according to your baseless claim that would be impossible since the high hide is 10-15% correction.
Show me evidence that the data published by redfin is inaccurate and I'll stop citing it.
When did I say anything about Michigan? I'm talking about all 50 states, the whole market.
What you are describing - focusing on your markets - is the definition of cherry picking. We're talking about the the entire US housing market.
I'm going to cue you in on something... there is no "whole market". One of the few things that we've agreed on in this thread is that each market is unique.
Sure we look at national median prices and rates, but those are about the only things that we look at nationally.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nick H.:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nick H.:
@Greg R. people are giving you very good clues as to what will happen and why, and all you do is dismiss.
Unemployment is extremely low. It has/will increase, slightly. In 2009 it was 10% or so. Now it's around 3.5% and maybe it will get to 4%. Pay attention to the data, not headlines and narrative. Michael isn't talking about a layoff not being a tough situation for the person laid off - he's clearly talking about the topic of discussion here as it relates to housing prices crashing.
You've constantly referenced specific cities on here that you cherry pick, that show down turns (like Dallas and Austin i guess?). Cherry picking is a great way to bias data in an attempt to prove a point that isn't true. But it intentionally ignores the other markets that have not gone down (or slightly).
You cherry pick the data that you like as well, only accepting redfins display of average home price (which seems to not seasonally adjust their data - which is why May 2022 is the peak, June 2021 is the peak, etc). You reject any zillow data because it hurts your point. I think you even rejected the fed data, which is kind of wild. Just redfin or bust because they don't seasonally adjust, so it sort of looks like a lofty drop.
There has been and remains an extremely low likelihood that prices will crash like you expected (and still expect?). Seems pretty clear the bulk of the people on here that are putting out actual arguments/logic/data behind why it hasn't crashed and why it won't, outnumbers those that think it will crash. This is consistent with analyst reports, etc, like Goldman, who do not think it will crash.
The real estate market is not crashing and is very unlikely to crash. As the bulk of ppl on here have said, it's very possible it will correct slightly (0-5% correction on the low side and 10-15% correction on the high side, with the average guess probably in the 5-10% correction zone?).
There's no cherry picking going on. I focus on the markets local to me and ones where I own RE. The reason I never talk about Michigan is because I have no interest in that market. I don't own any properties there and don't plan to; therefore, I don't care what's going on there.
So if cherry picking is me focusing on markets are relevant to me, than a vast majority of us are guilty.
You seem to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and are dismissing what's happening in markets like TX. From May to Sep Austin already corrected almost 19%. However, according to your baseless claim that would be impossible since the high hide is 10-15% correction.
Show me evidence that the data published by redfin is inaccurate and I'll stop citing it.
When did I say anything about Michigan? I'm talking about all 50 states, the whole market.
What you are describing - focusing on your markets - is the definition of cherry picking. We're talking about the the entire US housing market.
I'm going to cue you in on something... there is no "whole market". One of the few things that we've agreed on in this thread is that each market is unique.
Sure we look at national medial prices and rates, but those are about the only things that we look at nationally.
Haha you do a good job of keeping your long thread going, i'll give you that at least
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
If you actually believe those numbers then probaly not worth discussing much because now we are getting into hyperbole town. I also don't quite get why you would use Twitter as an example.
Engineers are very safe overall and even those laid off will end up in the many jobs still out there for tech.
But there haven't been any large scale lay offs outside of twitter and meta. Which are very specific examples. The only other major lay off has been Credit suisse - again unique to them. Where are the 5 to 10 even 15% lay offs we saw in eveyr other recession?
Just put a flip house under contract for the highest I have ever sold a house
In my own neighborhood a house went under contract for 17% higher than any other house has ever sold for
In my little world in Central FL I am not seeing any drop. Actually still on the way up
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
If you actually believe those numbers then probaly not worth discussing much because now we are getting into hyperbole town. I also don't quite get why you would use Twitter as an example.
Engineers are very safe overall and even those laid off will end up in the many jobs still out there for tech.
But there haven't been any large scale lay offs outside of twitter and meta. Which are very specific examples. The only other major lay off has been Credit suisse - again unique to them. Where are the 5 to 10 even 15% lay offs we saw in eveyr other recession?
A ton of companies have already announced significant layoffs. Why don't you believe them? You and Carlos are believing the Fed with their predictions a year out, but corporations are announcing large layoffs and your downplaying it.
There are a lot of companies cutting over 10% of their workforce.
Meta 13%
Peloton 12%
Snapchat 20%
Soundcloud 20%
Coinbase 18%
Redfin 13%
Lyft 13%
Stripe 13%
Opendoor 18%
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
If you actually believe those numbers then probaly not worth discussing much because now we are getting into hyperbole town. I also don't quite get why you would use Twitter as an example.
Engineers are very safe overall and even those laid off will end up in the many jobs still out there for tech.
But there haven't been any large scale lay offs outside of twitter and meta. Which are very specific examples. The only other major lay off has been Credit suisse - again unique to them. Where are the 5 to 10 even 15% lay offs we saw in eveyr other recession?
A ton of companies have already announced significant layoffs. Why don't you believe them? You and Carlos are believing the Fed with their predictions a year out, but corporations are announcing large layoffs and your downplaying it.
There are a lot of companies cutting over 10% of their workforce.
Meta 13%
Peloton 12%
Snapchat 20%
Soundcloud 20%
Coinbase 18%
Redfin 13%
Lyft 13%
Stripe 13%
Opendoor 18%
Actually I spend my days working with the Fortune 100 - so what I'm referencing is them not the fed. The only large company on that list is Meta. Snapchat let go 1,200 people. We are talking macroeconomics here we need to be talking about multiple large organizations with large lay offs think meta but over at least a dozen a companies.
A lot of those companies are new tech vs old tech or specifically hit by some element of recession/pandemic. If you want layoffs to impact economy it needs to across the full economy. It's not there. It's why inflation is remaining quite stubborn because of the job market.
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
Yeah, Greg hands down wins the Emmy for "Information Distortion" over-dramatization. Congrats Greg, you did it buddy, you flung the best load of BS out there, good on ya mate. Now go wash those hands, ya stink bro.......
To keep this simple for everyone. Yes, divorces and death, 2 very recession proof actions right. Now if asking what size of the Real Estate market divorce and death accounts for, it's simple, how much of it did you see the last 2 years? Or how about the 2 years before that, or 10 years before that, or how about 100 years of activity before that? CORRECT, divorce and death makes up a very tiny volume of total home sale listings.
And guess what, not ever married couple owns a home, that's an EPIC intentional distortion ya threw out there buddy "omg, look, 650k divorces, OMG that's 650k homes!!!" Nope, no it isn't. AND guess what, not every divorcing couple sells, in plenty of cases 1 keeps the home, actually most to be honest, especially now. AND some also choose to rent out the home. All of this, 1st hand data in my own brokerage representing divorcing persons.
So in REALITY, 650k divorces means what % owns homes, maybe 325k. AND of that, how many are 1 spouse not staying in and keeping the home, maybe 115k. Ok, so REALITY is "as many as" 192 properties coming onto the sale market per STATE, per month. On an average LOW volume month like now, any average states has about what, 4,000 listings per month? Oh no, 200 homes.........
Come on man just stop the ridiculousness, please. Your grasping, like, really desperate now, citing divorces and deaths is going to make housing collapse, come on guy.
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,183
- Votes |
- 3,998
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
If you actually believe those numbers then probaly not worth discussing much because now we are getting into hyperbole town. I also don't quite get why you would use Twitter as an example.
Engineers are very safe overall and even those laid off will end up in the many jobs still out there for tech.
But there haven't been any large scale lay offs outside of twitter and meta. Which are very specific examples. The only other major lay off has been Credit suisse - again unique to them. Where are the 5 to 10 even 15% lay offs we saw in eveyr other recession?
A ton of companies have already announced significant layoffs. Why don't you believe them? You and Carlos are believing the Fed with their predictions a year out, but corporations are announcing large layoffs and your downplaying it.
There are a lot of companies cutting over 10% of their workforce.
Meta 13%
Peloton 12%
Snapchat 20%
Soundcloud 20%
Coinbase 18%
Redfin 13%
Lyft 13%
Stripe 13%
Opendoor 18%
Actually I spend my days working with the Fortune 100 - so what I'm referencing is them not the fed. The only large company on that list is Meta. Snapchat let go 1,200 people. We are talking macroeconomics here we need to be talking about multiple large organizations with large lay offs think meta but over at least a dozen a companies.
A lot of those companies are new tech vs old tech or specifically hit by some element of recession/pandemic. If you want layoffs to impact economy it needs to across the full economy. It's not there. It's why inflation is remaining quite stubborn because of the job market.
Let's just cut to the chase because the BS flinging is beyond old now.
Unemployment rate is 3.7%, feel free to google it, as of Oct 2022 reading update.
You wack-a-moles gotta end this parade of lies and distortion trying to whoop people up into thinking unemployment is skyrocketing, it's 3 FREAKING point SEVEN. That means everyone getting laid off right now will only be able to get 7 job offers in next 48 hrs vs 10.......
Unemployment rate is insanely low. Feel free to research what Fed and all them believe a healthy unemployment rate is. Spoiler alert, it's higher then 3.7.
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Michael Plante:
Just put a flip house under contract for the highest I have ever sold a house
In my own neighborhood a house went under contract for 17% higher than any other house has ever sold for
In my little world in Central FL I am not seeing any drop. Actually still on the way up
Uh-oh, look out Michael, Doomsday-Greg is gonna getcya! He's gonna let you know how wrong you are, nope, wrong wrong wrong, not happening. Didn't you get the memo, everything is falling off a cliff.
Greg let us all know already how the stockmarket is in free fall. Oh, the actual stock ticker, all that green, nope, your wrong, follow-the-Greg, it's all collapsing. And didn't you hear, everyone is laying off AT LEAST 10% of work force. Yup, The-greg has spoken, ignore reality, THE-GREG HAS SPOKEN!
LMAO. Yeah, SOOoooo much sarcasm. The-Greg needs to crawl out of his cave, maybe that tinfoil hat is restricting blood-flow, take it off and take in this little thing we like to call REALITY.
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
Yeah, Greg hands down wins the Emmy for "Information Distortion" over-dramatization. Congrats Greg, you did it buddy, you flung the best load of BS out there, good on ya mate. Now go wash those hands, ya stink bro.......
To keep this simple for everyone. Yes, divorces and death, 2 very recession proof actions right. Now if asking what size of the Real Estate market divorce and death accounts for, it's simple, how much of it did you see the last 2 years? Or how about the 2 years before that, or 10 years before that, or how about 100 years of activity before that? CORRECT, divorce and death makes up a very tiny volume of total home sale listings.
And guess what, not ever married couple owns a home, that's an EPIC intentional distortion ya threw out there buddy "omg, look, 650k divorces, OMG that's 650k homes!!!" Nope, no it isn't. AND guess what, not every divorcing couple sells, in plenty of cases 1 keeps the home, actually most to be honest, especially now. AND some also choose to rent out the home. All of this, 1st hand data in my own brokerage representing divorcing persons.
So in REALITY, 650k divorces means what % owns homes, maybe 325k. AND of that, how many are 1 spouse not staying in and keeping the home, maybe 115k. Ok, so REALITY is "as many as" 192 properties coming onto the sale market per STATE, per month. On an average LOW volume month like now, any average states has about what, 4,000 listings per month? Oh no, 200 homes.........
Come on man just stop the ridiculousness, please. Your grasping, like, really desperate now, citing divorces and deaths is going to make housing collapse, come on guy.
hahaha this is so fun, to begin with.
I don't understand why few folks are so hypnotized by one idea and to prove that it's right, we are all adult.
I really want you to understand economy, Greg. But the moment you said IMF and Freddi Mac is BS that's the end of the renaissance for you LOL....
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
You're not the only one here who's been working in tech since early 2000s. You are comparing apples to oranges. The doc com bubble is not what's happening now. Crazy that you would imply that what happened back then would have any relevance right now.
You think that only engineers are getting laid off? Those are probably the safest people in the company right now. Musk said that Twitter had 10 managerial/ non tech employees to every engineer. That's probably true for a lot of these companies, HR, Marketing, Support, Accounting, Management/ Ops, etc., etc.
OMG that's exactly what I am saying, but in reverse.
If the layoff doesn't impact engineering team and only impacting corporate support, that's OK.
Even then, usually company chop the head where the organization is not making money, which is OK to chop that area.
See when 10,000 people get laid off it doesn't have an effect to company bottom line if that 10,000 folks/group is not making money, that's even making the company beter, and those guys if they're good they can find job the next day.
i tell you what, we have RECORD GREAT RESIGNATION IN 2021 IN ALL TECH COMPANY, all tech company are looking for people....
In San Jose alone we have 8000 engineering jobs opening right now, while available home listing is only 800
stop reading stupid headline that would confirm your bias, read the statistic yooo
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
the 10% is the chef that gives you free lunch lol.
Given the direction of the thread this is sort of funny little tidbit of news. https://finbold.com/bitcoin-ad...
Bitcoin adds $15 billion in 15 minutes as CPI data comes in lower than expected
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Given the direction of the thread this is sort of funny little tidbit of news. https://finbold.com/bitcoin-ad...
Bitcoin adds $15 billion in 15 minutes as CPI data comes in lower than expected hahaha I'm probably the only one here who mentioned that Inflation would be lowered quickly. I even share the data analytics from JP Morgan. The Fed knows that their data is lagging 12-16 months but as Food, medical insurance, used car and gas service is all going down. Even James saying inflation would be here to stay. NO.
So how do I know that ? the fastest way to reduce inflation is by : taking the money out of circulation. This is the real trick.
So what one must do to track Inflation progress is check Fed Balance Sheet position along with M2 in circulation, I keep hunting this information and have been telling you the balance sheet now (if we calculate it correctly) is on the same level as mid-level of 2020. It has regressed a lot.
Next few months, the inflation number would be down as well as the shelter is catching up with the downtrend and hopefully energy price keeps going down.Fed evans already announced by 2025 the inflation is 2% again, it will take 24 months.
Now if FFR is between 4.5-5% in 2023 and yield around 3.5-4%, expect 30YFRM around 6.5-7.0 then. Not sure what would be the impact later on the house inventory.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
So if you see the history of inflation in US since 1970, the root cause is always geopolitical shocks in the Middle East that drives oil price to the roof. However, in 2022 inflation, the root cause is 45% new dollar that the Fed prints in March-April 2020 , supply chain issue due to Covid and Ukraine war. It has nothing to do with Middle East. So to fix the problem, like in 1970, the Fed has to burn that money they printed in 2020, they're very close to the target and if they keep doing the same policy , at end of 2023 the M2 of 2023 would be equal to M2 2020. The inflation by then would be down automatically as the money circulated is much less. The Fed knows they did huge mistake.
#1 Rehabbing & House Flipping Contributor
- Contractor/Investor/Consultant
- West Valley Phoenix
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#1 Rehabbing & House Flipping Contributor
- Contractor/Investor/Consultant
- West Valley Phoenix
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
supply chain issue due to Covid and Ukraine war.
Are you sure these are the only two causes?
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
supply chain issue due to Covid and Ukraine war.
Are you sure these are the only two causes?
three.... M2 supply is the biggest.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
if the Fed didn't print money in 2020, we have no inflation.
Sorry if you've already explained this (there's a lot to read through...)
What process does the fed use to increase and decrease the money supply? I hear people refer to it all the time, but I have no idea of the mechanics behind it.
Thanks