Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Greg R.]

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People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

 Do you mean Zillow and Freddie Mac is comical :) LOL LOL

Again, you need to get out of the day trader mindset. National median SOLD prices are declining at an annualized rate of over 18%. It's not going to fall off a cliff over night. 

 Would love to see this data showing 18% on national median home sale price decline…..

 Do the math. Look at the decline since May and annualize it. June, July, August, & September. 

Like I said I’d love to see this “national”. I think you are little too focused on Dallas and Austin.

Anyway here is the median national info:

The link if you want to dig in yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Not seeing a national decline…..

So is the data on Redfin inaccurate? Or are you looking at YOY or something else? Peak of bubble was May, We're looking at declines since the peak of the bubble. 

 Lots of sourced out there. I’d say it’s likely in between but Redfin is not perfect no. The Fed is probably more accurate for historical data.

All that aside even Redfin is 9%. So where is the 18%?

Peak of bubble was May. Since may we have June, July, August, and Sep (4 months of reported data). May was median sold price of $430,310. September is $403,556. So from June-Sep (a 4 month period) prices dropped 6.2xxx%. Annualize that (12 months), and you get your 18%+. 

Yeah man I can’t believe I’m saying but this is perfect post for @James Hamling to respond to in his own unique way…. 

@Greg R. so your suggestion is take a 4 month period where it dropped and just times it by 3 and thats the annual return? Not pay attention to trajectory and general direction? That’s not how it works. Your own data even shows it flatlining the last few months…. 

Yeah, I guess it would be a good idea to summon James if you want someone to post a 6 paragraph rant of nonsense to muddy the waters. 

And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down. 

I'm not picking a random 4 month period in time. We should be able to universally agree that prices peaked in May. So I'm looking at post-peak prices. 

I’m not interested in being quite so blunt as he is. But he would have a field day with this. Agree May was the peak but you are literally taking the prime peak and the initial trough but then suggestion that will happen annually. 

Instead lets look at this:

July 411k - August $405k - September $403k…

What do you want to bet October is over $400k? Those same 3 months are showing exactly what it is going with. And the direction is no where near your 18%. 

 

 OMG Really....... 

Please, feel free to tell me exactly where in the graph below is "the bubble", of this decline that is supposedly happening everywhere..... Bueler..... Bueler....... Bueler....... 

Congratulations, you found A market that has SOME decline, yeah for you. Guess what, CA is NOT the United States. Seriously, how many flipping times do I gotta come on and smack people into reality. The disinformation is EXHAUSTING.     As many, MANY of us have said from day 1 there will be localized market variations, THERE ALWAYS IS. I guarantee that during the boom of last couple years there is some markets out there somewhere that were struggling, maybe there coal mine got shut down, of whatever. Point is local market variations ARE NOT THE WHOLE.  

This doomsday moron class of people who just refuse to step out of there cave and accept reality for what it is..... 

And this graph below, it's not some poh-dunk backwater nowhere, it's a MAJOR national market. So where is the collapse? At what point will you people accept reality, admit the sky is not falling, when, how many months of NO collapse does it take? 

 Ahhh, here he is!! 😂

I needed a good laugh. 

Not once did anyone bring up CA, but Einstein James immediately jumps into a rant about CA. Love it!! Needed some comedy injected into this discussion. 

[Greg R.]

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And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down. 

If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out. 

 Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory….. 

Just saying... if you need to start summoning and "channeling" James, you've lost the argument 😂😂

 I don’t always agree with James but he makes a lot of valid points. As he did above. I just didn’t want to be quite so blunt but when you posted Redfin data for 18% and then told me how you calculated. Candidly I wanted to say some pretty blunt things.

Your own data doesn’t show what you claim not even a bit…

Yet you have no factual argument against it. There is no trickery, I don't know what industry you work in, but apparently "annualization" isn't part of it. This is very common is the business world. It's called pacing and annualization. 

There's nothing that's inaccurate at all in my analysis of data since the peak. If there is, please point it out in detail. 

 I cited all my data 100%, and you now make a baseless claim that my data doesn't show what I claim? Dude, don't know what you're deal is, but you're making zero sense. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

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And in the 4 months since the peak, there has been decline every month. Some months more than others, but the trajectory has been down. 

If you said the trajectory is down, then it's correct. Freddie Mac say we are going down until August 2023. But only down 1.5%, that number you may not like I guess :-)

Good to know that an inept federal agency knows what's going to happen a year out. Maybe you can ask them for the winning Powerball numbers. I hear it's up to 2 billion now. Powerball is a day or two out, so this should be a no-brainer for them compared to fortune telling a year out. 

 Ok going to channel my inner James. Pretty harsh for somebody not using a trend line talking about trajectory….. 

Just saying... if you need to start summoning and "channeling" James, you've lost the argument 😂😂

 I don’t always agree with James but he makes a lot of valid points. As he did above. I just didn’t want to be quite so blunt but when you posted Redfin data for 18% and then told me how you calculated. Candidly I wanted to say some pretty blunt things.

Your own data doesn’t show what you claim not even a bit…

Yet you have no factual argument against it. There is no trickery, I don't know what industry you work in, but apparently "annualization" isn't part of it. This is very common is the business world. It's called pacing and annualization. 

There's nothing that's inaccurate at all in my analysis of data since the peak. If there is, please point it out in detail. 

 I cited all my data 100%, and you now make a baseless claim that my data doesn't show what I claim? Dude, don't know what you're deal is, but you're making zero sense. 

 Annualization is common (although typically you adjust for seasonality). Using a period less than annual to do it is not. Your skewing data and apparently don’t understand trend lines. Absolutely everything is wrong with your analysis and would not be done in business. 

Your own data shows the trajectory is not on pace for 18% but you apparently don’t understand forecasting at all.

My problem was you claimed 18% median adjustment. And your own data posted shows it’s not. I was polite in pointing it out. Then showed you the last 3 months trajectory (in your 4 month trend) and you don’t seem to understand what that suggests for next few months.

You haven’t factored in for anomalies, short term trends, anything. Frankly you are using 4 months - 3 of which have very litle trend down, the first month which has a larger drop. And then suggesting the data shows it will drop by that average on going. Yet the last 3 month trend completely contradicts it.

Lets it it this way lets say it trends down for 6 month (5% a month) for a total of 30%. Lets say the next 2 months it trends up 5% a month %. Are you going to predict it will be flats in month 3 and 4 because of your 4 month average? 

It also explains why you didn’t understand me pointing out that weirdly large May anomaly in DFW. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

nationwide 18 percent from may is just mathematically impossible :-) just think about it, seriously after 2000 posts I hope this could be better.

[Nicholas L.]

Hmm - we can't even agree on what the data that is out means...

[Michael Wooldridge]

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So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

[Victor S.]

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So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

there's a little bit of fetterman in all of us, i've underestimated just how much more in some than the rest. i will remember this laughing/crying emoji of yours and will use every chance i have in the next two years to remind you of it. enjoy. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Victor S.:

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So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

there's a little bit of fetterman in all of us, i've underestimated just how much more in some than the rest. i will remember this laughing/crying emoji of yours and will use every chance i have in the next two years to remind you of it. enjoy. 

I never really cared who won. I believe both sides are bad. I just could see where it’s going - I have no horse in the race and not really blinded by the “everyone must think this way”. 

But given the economic situations from gas to inflation to markets etc… It should have been a lot worse for the dems.

[Victor S.]

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."

[John Carbone]

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So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

there's a little bit of fetterman in all of us, i've underestimated just how much more in some than the rest. i will remember this laughing/crying emoji of yours and will use every chance i have in the next two years to remind you of it. enjoy. 

I never really cared who won. I believe both sides are bad. I just could see where it’s going - I have no horse in the race and not really blinded by the “everyone must think this way”. 

But given the economic situations from gas to inflation to markets etc… It should have been a lot worse for the dems.

 I don’t think the Margin of winning in the house matters though, even with a slight majority for republicans in house it will still block the ridiculous spending reconciliation which is deflationary. Dems were able to pass a lot of stimulus past 2 years with razor thin majorities. That spigot is now turned off. Only place for it now is from the fed and they are saying they are holding firm, so where will any stimulus come from with a tight fed and no legislation being passed in the next 2 year lame duck presidency? 20 percent peak drop in homes is now a lock 

[Bruce Woodruff]

I don't think the Republican wins are strong enough to get the economy going again. They are a lot weaker than expected....Is it voters being stupid or did they cheat again? Certainly some suspicious issues here in AZ. So now, IMO, this 'crash' we are talking about just moved a little closer. We will see.......

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

Hmm - we can't even agree on what the data that is out means...

 Is okay actually , even Fed chairman has extreme different view

yellen said no recission while ex fed chairman said we will have a mild one

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

I don't think the Republican wins are strong enough to get the economy going again. They are a lot weaker than expected....Is it voters being stupid or did they cheat again? Certainly some suspicious issues here in AZ. So now, IMO, this 'crash' we are talking about just moved a little closer. We will see.......

 The current president is openly anti drilling but he is anti opec too yet he wants inflation to down while no oil digging is the root cause of energy supply inflation

I am tired with the usual non sense that becomes the new normal

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Victor S.:

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Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

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Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious.

you have to be kidding. in what solar galaxy is that scenario a potential reality? i'm all ears.

 you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples. 

But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same. 

at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.

Hmm that was an impressive red wave last night. Exactly what was expected given the economic situation…… 😂
 

there's a little bit of fetterman in all of us, i've underestimated just how much more in some than the rest. i will remember this laughing/crying emoji of yours and will use every chance i have in the next two years to remind you of it. enjoy. 

I never really cared who won. I believe both sides are bad. I just could see where it’s going - I have no horse in the race and not really blinded by the “everyone must think this way”. 

But given the economic situations from gas to inflation to markets etc… It should have been a lot worse for the dems.

 I don’t think the Margin of winning in the house matters though, even with a slight majority for republicans in house it will still block the ridiculous spending reconciliation which is deflationary. Dems were able to pass a lot of stimulus past 2 years with razor thin majorities. That spigot is now turned off. Only place for it now is from the fed and they are saying they are holding firm, so where will any stimulus come from with a tight fed and no legislation being passed in the next 2 year lame duck presidency? 20 percent peak drop in homes is now a lock 

 What is no longer open secret is everyone knows if fed fund rate is above 5 percent the government doesn’t even have money to spend as budget is allocated more towards debt service

the fed fund rates of 5 percent interest result would be offsetted by the fed later when they decided they have to raise the taxes 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Victor S.:

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."

 Maybe. But when you have to make predictions - business or political - and read the room it includes all people. not just those who agree with them. 

The dems did it in 2016, the GOP did it in 2020 and 2022. What neither party seems to realize is the middle is more important than ever. Which is funny as they both head to either direction.

Ahh well. Midterms were more or less what I expected. now back to business. 

[Chris Clothier]

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  Chris, I wish you would have searched a bit more thoroughly. I've posted screenshots (many times) of the price decreases in Austin and Dallas. 

Dallas: peak of the bubble in May 2022 median SOLD price was 490k, as of September 2022 it is 390k. 

 Austin: peak of the bubble in May 2022 median SOLD price was 670k, as of September 2022 it is 563k.

Also, Zillow released a preview of October numbers and Austin (only second to LV) saw the sharpest home value decline. 

YOY at this time is irrelevant. Let's do some YOY comparisons after May 2023, that's when your annualized data is going to start showing the declines. 

Also, not sure what TX markets you're in. I'm in Dallas on the ground and I've been ingesting data like a fiend. There is no question that the DFW and Austin markets are dropping. Look at the amount of houses hanging on the market, price decreases, properties being unlisted because they can't sell, etc. 

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

Thanks for re-sharing so I didn't have to search the 80 some odd pages for the numerous times you had posted this.  You didn't answer my question about where you got your data or if there was any other supporting data you could share, but I zoomed in and saw it was from Redfin.   I'm assuming they don't make their data set readily available.  Which means, at best it is just a piece of data without context.  And, on the same day you posted it (yesterday) another source, the Dallas Morning News, posted a set of data sourced form Texas Realtors that paints the opposite picture of what you posted.  Of course, it appears that their data is single-family homes in DFW and your data is single-family homes, townhouses, condos and co-ops. and is for Dallas, TX. only.

Reading the article, this is second qtr. (including May) to third Quarter (including September).  Again, they use Median pricing, which without context is meaningless (in my opinion), but they show $406,000 as Dallas area median home pricing and 14.4% higher from previous qtr.  That data shows pricing going up!  The same data set shows the number of listings up significantly in the 3rd qtr.  Now, I guess if someone was looking to confirm their belief that the market is declining, they would point to the fact that the number of closed sales is declining, the number of days on market is increasing by 4 days and the number of months of inventory is up to 2.3.  That is still 3.5 months below what is considered an optimal functioning market, but I guess when the confirmation bias kicks in hard, those are pieces of data that a true doomsday believer could point to.

Of course, I am just one more commentator on here and by no means an expert, but I have more experience than most, especially in Texas.  To help clarify what Texas markets I am in, I have purchased approx.:
1,778 single-family homes in DFW and surrounding metroplex since 2012
421 single-family homes in the Houston Metro since 2016
84 in the San Antonio Metro since 2020

We actively manage just under 2,000 single-family homes in those three markets today and will add roughly 400-500 more in the next 12 months.  That is just the Texas market.  
We actually manage over 7,500 single-family homes across the southeast with a value north of $2 billion and that is without managing or working with institutional investors.  Which, I can confirm what @James Hamling  posted recently, the institutional investor is the major X factor in all of this and they will play an outsized role in many markets preventing a crash in values.  Each market will differ, but I firmly believe a market the size and importance of DFW is going to see a larger volume of institutional buying in some price points than what we have seen the past few years.  

We purchase for value-add and do walkthrough evaluations on roughly 4-5 properties for every one that we purchase. Our own internal data shows that prices we are able to buy properties at today, per sq. ft., which in our opinion levels the evaluation to an objective piece of data, are roughly the exact same as 6 months ago to 4-5% lower. The driving factors are motivation of the seller. This week we've reviewed 109 opportunities in the DFW metroplex, walked through just over 30 and purchased 1 property for 3.8% lower (per sq. ft. on similar sized property) than a property in the same neighborhood earlier this year. Our sales data from MLS show no drop in value on closed sales from what we sold the first property for in the Spring.

I sincerely hope you have success and that whatever strategy or plan you have works to perfection.  The beauty is, we all get to decide what our expectations are and we are all in control of the which direction we go.  There are a lot of commentators on here that are polar opposite of me when it comes to strategy and business, but I respect them and have learned a lot from their posts on here.  I don't have the energy or the time to put into some of the arguments on here, but I am definitely open to other opinions and reading including yours.

I have to fight off confirmation bias all the time.  You say you ingest data like a fiend and I applaud that.  I do too.  Most of it doesn't mean anything by itself.  In my opinion, data has to be cobbled together and I find it helpful to listen to others and their interpretations.  I like hearing the data that others are looking at and why.  However, in the end, I am going to take the actions I need to take and I change my mind or direction along the way because of the data, then I consider that a success.

Lastly, it looks like from your profile you've been at this for about a decade.  Congratulations!  You should feel like you hit the lottery getting started when pricing was in the trough.  I look back today and If I have a regret, it is that I did not buy twice the number of homes.  The value, not median price of a home sold, but the actual value of individual pieces of real estate has more than doubled in that time period in most areas of the metroplex.  I guess my point is, I hope you've done well.  Rather than poking at or even boasting that a ton of investors have lost money and are staying quiet, be glad that you're not one of them.  You could have made plenty of mistakes this past decade and the market itself covered them up.  I can admit that I have.  I know I've made mistakes and am thankful that they were made in a market where I didn't get punished.  Right now, I am helping a number of investors out of their mistakes and the last thing any of us should be doing is commenting on here asking why they are not publicizing it.  But hey, again, you conduct business how you want to conduct business.  I have enjoyed reading this and look forward to maybe reading more about data and what it means for each of us and our strategies.  Best to you -

[Nicholas L.]

@Chris Clothier

great post.  you and @James Hamling agree strongly on the prospect of institutional investors continuing to push into single family.

do you think that will continue to be concentrated in the sunbelt states?

i suppose if building picks up, you could even see a scenario where institutional investors buy up more properties, but their share holds steady or decreases.

based on my research there are still many states where they effectively have 0 SFH inventory.

[Nicholas L.]

@Chris Clothier

one possible way of reconciling the data / perspectives here is the difference at price points and inventory type, which @Carlos Ptriawan has tried to get it.  some big drops at high price points which I expect you are not seeing.  like i said many pages ago, if you're David Greene looking for houses in the $1M-$3M dollar range to do creative things with, it's a great time to buy.  for us at or below the median, it's still tough!

and I'm one guy in one market looking for a couple deals a year, so all I can offer is my own anecdotal experience - but well priced inventory below $500K still gets snapped up...

[Victor S.]

didn't see this one coming: https://seekingalpha.com/news/...

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Chris Clothier

great post.  you and @James Hamling agree strongly on the prospect of institutional investors continuing to push into single family.

do you think that will continue to be concentrated in the sunbelt states?

i suppose if building picks up, you could even see a scenario where institutional investors buy up more properties, but their share holds steady or decreases.

based on my research there are still many states where they effectively have 0 SFH inventory.

Good question. No, for many reasons the % concentration in the Sunbelt will decline. Now, this is NOT a statement of selling in Sunbelt, or less investment activity, it's a matter of concentration. Sunbelt was a "easy" entry market position. Institutional activity in the SFR asset segment is at a early chapter, and with that as experiences have positive results various organizations will "stretch there legs" to exploring more market areas, with capital deployment to follow. Thus, there is absolutely greater diversification of deployment to follow.

In summary this is more a question of will the institutional investors diversify markets, and yes, they absolutely will and many are already engaged in such. 

Also competition induces movement and exploration of markets. Think Midwest, namely Upper Midwest. "Good Ole Reliable" markets, those with strong fundamentals to weather economic cycles. Less about explosive profit potentials and more about reliable returns. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris Clothier:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

  Chris, I wish you would have searched a bit more thoroughly. I've posted screenshots (many times) of the price decreases in Austin and Dallas. 

Dallas: peak of the bubble in May 2022 median SOLD price was 490k, as of September 2022 it is 390k. 

 Austin: peak of the bubble in May 2022 median SOLD price was 670k, as of September 2022 it is 563k.

Also, Zillow released a preview of October numbers and Austin (only second to LV) saw the sharpest home value decline. 

YOY at this time is irrelevant. Let's do some YOY comparisons after May 2023, that's when your annualized data is going to start showing the declines. 

Also, not sure what TX markets you're in. I'm in Dallas on the ground and I've been ingesting data like a fiend. There is no question that the DFW and Austin markets are dropping. Look at the amount of houses hanging on the market, price decreases, properties being unlisted because they can't sell, etc. 

People who think the housing market is not experiencing declines despite rates in the 7's and hyperinflation (not to mention the data) are quite comical to me. 

Thanks for re-sharing so I didn't have to search the 80 some odd pages for the numerous times you had posted this.  You didn't answer my question about where you got your data or if there was any other supporting data you could share, but I zoomed in and saw it was from Redfin.   I'm assuming they don't make their data set readily available.  Which means, at best it is just a piece of data without context.  And, on the same day you posted it (yesterday) another source, the Dallas Morning News, posted a set of data sourced form Texas Realtors that paints the opposite picture of what you posted.  Of course, it appears that their data is single-family homes in DFW and your data is single-family homes, townhouses, condos and co-ops. and is for Dallas, TX. only.

Reading the article, this is second qtr. (including May) to third Quarter (including September).  Again, they use Median pricing, which without context is meaningless (in my opinion), but they show $406,000 as Dallas area median home pricing and 14.4% higher from previous qtr.  That data shows pricing going up!  The same data set shows the number of listings up significantly in the 3rd qtr.  Now, I guess if someone was looking to confirm their belief that the market is declining, they would point to the fact that the number of closed sales is declining, the number of days on market is increasing by 4 days and the number of months of inventory is up to 2.3.  That is still 3.5 months below what is considered an optimal functioning market, but I guess when the confirmation bias kicks in hard, those are pieces of data that a true doomsday believer could point to.

Of course, I am just one more commentator on here and by no means an expert, but I have more experience than most, especially in Texas.  To help clarify what Texas markets I am in, I have purchased approx.:
1,778 single-family homes in DFW and surrounding metroplex since 2012
421 single-family homes in the Houston Metro since 2016
84 in the San Antonio Metro since 2020

We actively manage just under 2,000 single-family homes in those three markets today and will add roughly 400-500 more in the next 12 months.  That is just the Texas market.  
We actually manage over 7,500 single-family homes across the southeast with a value north of $2 billion and that is without managing or working with institutional investors.  Which, I can confirm what @James Hamling  posted recently, the institutional investor is the major X factor in all of this and they will play an outsized role in many markets preventing a crash in values.  Each market will differ, but I firmly believe a market the size and importance of DFW is going to see a larger volume of institutional buying in some price points than what we have seen the past few years.  

We purchase for value-add and do walkthrough evaluations on roughly 4-5 properties for every one that we purchase. Our own internal data shows that prices we are able to buy properties at today, per sq. ft., which in our opinion levels the evaluation to an objective piece of data, are roughly the exact same as 6 months ago to 4-5% lower. The driving factors are motivation of the seller. This week we've reviewed 109 opportunities in the DFW metroplex, walked through just over 30 and purchased 1 property for 3.8% lower (per sq. ft. on similar sized property) than a property in the same neighborhood earlier this year. Our sales data from MLS show no drop in value on closed sales from what we sold the first property for in the Spring.

I sincerely hope you have success and that whatever strategy or plan you have works to perfection.  The beauty is, we all get to decide what our expectations are and we are all in control of the which direction we go.  There are a lot of commentators on here that are polar opposite of me when it comes to strategy and business, but I respect them and have learned a lot from their posts on here.  I don't have the energy or the time to put into some of the arguments on here, but I am definitely open to other opinions and reading including yours.

I have to fight off confirmation bias all the time.  You say you ingest data like a fiend and I applaud that.  I do too.  Most of it doesn't mean anything by itself.  In my opinion, data has to be cobbled together and I find it helpful to listen to others and their interpretations.  I like hearing the data that others are looking at and why.  However, in the end, I am going to take the actions I need to take and I change my mind or direction along the way because of the data, then I consider that a success.

Lastly, it looks like from your profile you've been at this for about a decade.  Congratulations!  You should feel like you hit the lottery getting started when pricing was in the trough.  I look back today and If I have a regret, it is that I did not buy twice the number of homes.  The value, not median price of a home sold, but the actual value of individual pieces of real estate has more than doubled in that time period in most areas of the metroplex.  I guess my point is, I hope you've done well.  Rather than poking at or even boasting that a ton of investors have lost money and are staying quiet, be glad that you're not one of them.  You could have made plenty of mistakes this past decade and the market itself covered them up.  I can admit that I have.  I know I've made mistakes and am thankful that they were made in a market where I didn't get punished.  Right now, I am helping a number of investors out of their mistakes and the last thing any of us should be doing is commenting on here asking why they are not publicizing it.  But hey, again, you conduct business how you want to conduct business.  I have enjoyed reading this and look forward to maybe reading more about data and what it means for each of us and our strategies.  Best to you -

 Best-Post-Ever! A mic-drop moment, it's perfect, what else can one say, perfection..... 

A GREAT point made here, Confirmation Bias. I 100% believe one has to keep a strong focus on combating such, and it's hard because we can slip into it all too easily. I actually employ a R.E. Appraiser on my team with a explicit occupational task of question everything, and not only authorization but encouragement to argue with me, lol. Yes, I employ a counter-thought, that's how dedicated I am to being correct, where I pay a person to constantly seek and press to discover where or how I may be wrong. 

Confirmation Bias is, in my opinion, the most dangerous potential of our information age. A person can all too easily find plenty to support any pre-defined conclusion. I think it's actually much harder to remain un-biased today then ever before. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Chris Clothier

great post.  you and @James Hamling agree strongly on the prospect of institutional investors continuing to push into single family.

do you think that will continue to be concentrated in the sunbelt states?

i suppose if building picks up, you could even see a scenario where institutional investors buy up more properties, but their share holds steady or decreases.

based on my research there are still many states where they effectively have 0 SFH inventory.

 Based on John Burns data set, the number of buyers in last 4 quarters for flipped homes are approximately 45% investors, half is institution another half is pop and mom like u guys. So if Ibuyer sells in vegas, they sell it to the institution. Now we know some institutions is delaying their purchase.

Now the interesting thing is there's this algo that could calculate from 1980-2020 when there would be price reduction based on liquidity supply, on top of that there's a new variable which is the new home builder liquidity supply. this one i found to be very sophisticated as the one that analyze this is doing fabulous job. When new home builder delay their project, the liquidity would be gone as well (eg: Pulte is delaying their project for 12 months if I read it correctly).

In short, we would see price reduction only if liquidity supply is hitting 6-7 months and above.BUT With home builder new supply the number is around 5 months.  there's quite intricate relationship here.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

 True.  
I also appreciate folk that does not agree with me.... as long as their calculation is correct when they do not bash the authority like IMF,Zillow,Fed,freddie mac when they conducted market research.

Because if we keep saying all that do not agree with our 'confirmation bias' as moron including organizations that spend billion of dollar for research, then we are showing we have no value to even have a serious discussion

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Chris Clothier

one possible way of reconciling the data / perspectives here is the difference at price points and inventory type, which @Carlos Ptriawan has tried to get it.  some big drops at high price points which I expect you are not seeing.  like i said many pages ago, if you're David Greene looking for houses in the $1M-$3M dollar range to do creative things with, it's a great time to buy.  for us at or below the median, it's still tough!

and I'm one guy in one market looking for a couple deals a year, so all I can offer is my own anecdotal experience - but well priced inventory below $500K still gets snapped up...

 This is the data set from our market. Becaue our market is the most that experience price reduction so it's quite valuable I think.

I can't display it in more nicer view :

**Alum Rock (San Jose)
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 - $847,200 $910,000 $1,051,751 $1,230,000 $935,250
Q3 2022 - $874,500 $870,000 $1,036,500 $1,000,000 $920,000
% Price Change - 3% -4% -1% -19%

***
Central San Jose (San Jose)
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 $545,000 $1,000,000 $1,185,000 $1,592,500 $1,670,000 $1,169,000
Q3 2022 $687,500 $950,000 $1,170,000 $1,245,000 $1,145,000 $1,100,000
% Price Change 26% -5% -1% -22% -31% -6%

***

Evergreen (San Jose)
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 - $1,125,000 $1,165,000 $1,675,009 $2,700,000 $1,630,000
Q3 2022 - $1,169,750 $1,250,000 $1,625,000 $1,852,500 $1,472,500
% Price Change - 4% 7% -3% -31% -10%

****
Cambrian (San Jose)
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 - $1,404,875 $1,451,000 $1,650,000 $2,410,000 $1,535,000
Q3 2022 - $1,255,000 $1,495,000 $1,775,000 $1,950,000 $1,617,500
% Price Change - -11% 3% 8% -19% 5

****
Willow Glen (San Jose)
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 - $1,300,000 $1,650,000 $1,989,944 $2,650,000 $1,770,000
Q3 2022 - $1,498,000 $1,600,000 $2,100,000 $2,500,000 $1,800,000
% Price Change - 15% -3% 6% -6% 2%

***
Milpitas
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 - $1,102,500 $1,299,444 $1,582,375 $1,787,500 $1,406,000
Q3 2022 - $1,054,500 $1,281,000 $1,655,000 $1,500,888 $1,425,000
% Price Change - -4% -1% 5% -16% 1

*****
Palo Alto
0-1BD 2BD 3BD 4BD 5BD+ ALL
Single Family Median Sales Price Q3 2021 $1,615,350 $2,600,000 $3,130,000 $3,720,000 $4,862,325 $3,500,000
Q3 2022 - $2,690,000 $2,860,000 $3,650,000 $4,200,000 $3,380,000
% Price Change - 3% -9% -2% -14% -3% 

Summary: 80% of sub-market here is showing almost the same pattern. The greatest reduction of negative 12%-30% happened in SINGLE FAMILY MARKET WITH FOUR/FIVE BEDROOM ONLY.  

For regular joe 2/3 BR SF, townhome/condo is also okay where it's pretty much flat market from last year (regressed to Q4 2021 pricing). 

This is how the data should be displayed appropriately to avoid confusion. THere're just too many statistical data error there including even that's coming from Fed. 

Now the problem with those high price luxury homes price reductions, they impacted the statistics so much that when someone said your market dropped 10%, it's actually saying your luxury market is dropping 20%, but your middle income family home is actually only declining 5%.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Victor S.:

didn't see this one coming: https://seekingalpha.com/news/...

 amazing all professional flipper is out of business.