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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Quote from @Elsid Aliaj:
guys everything goes up forever meaning their limited memories guys everything goes up!!! Err i mean last 10,20,30,40,50 years.
Except the parts when stocks collapse, or stock markets close down for 4 years due to war, or when your wonderful city gets bombed to nothing, don't worry your hundreds of millions in real estate only go up.
things going up are due to your $ losing value assuming there is constant inflation for 6000 years of human history is just plain stupid. Majority of the time there is eventual inflation, but there are severe bouts of wealth destroying deflation, but don't worry Warren Buffet says stonks always go up.
Don't worry Warren Buffet is a genius who lost -50% on berkshire during 08', and if Warren was born in Japan the idiot would be broke.
Listening to 99% of people for investment advice is truly horrific, it's called good timing and LUCK all the the wealthy real estate investors were just lucky they lived and invested in the US.
There might be one final hyper inflationary surge, guess what real estate does during latter stages of hyper inflation? It becomes worthless because people are to busy buying food then paying rent or flipping homes.
With population trends negative globally, and soon to be ultra negative due to war, pandemics, total system reset 99% will be poor.
But what do i know enjoy building your house of cards, because everything always goes up
Fun post….. Lol hyperinflation in the US eh? Do you know the definition of hyperinflation? Becauese if so you are basically saying the entire world collapsed economically. Because thats what hyperinflation on the US dollar would do.
Sorry but your post has more merit in a conspiracy theory politics forum than anything else.
Nothing goes up forever. People who got rich quick in real estate, yes thta was luck on timing. People who get rich in real estate? Not a magic formula you need income coming in to support the purchase but historically it’s almost impossible to lose money on rental driven properties over a long period of time 10-15 years.
There are outliers as with anything in life but given thta somebody is paying down your property and it’s appreciating 1-2% on a very low side. You’ll end up on the positive end. The only question really is how positive.
but sure house of cards….
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
ok that argumentation makes sense, here's the article that apartment demand plunges in Q3 2022.
https://calculatedrisk.substac...
https://www.realpage.com/analy...
But yes nationally probably we will not see a decline line ; but check the "rei line" in the third chart from the first page, there's significant drops of effective rent between Q4-21 and Q3-22.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
ok that argumentation makes sense, here's the article that apartment demand plunges in Q3 2022.
https://calculatedrisk.substac...
https://www.realpage.com/analy...
But yes nationally probably we will not see a decline line ; but check the "rei line" in the third chart from the first page, there's significant drops of effective rent between Q4-21 and Q3-22.
Honestly REI line is still higher than I expected it to be at this point. Thats why I'm saying I think we agree in most respects. But like candidly it's almost like if there is no growth (rent or housing etc..) than it's a negative thing.
These things always come in waves. That first condo I talked about was relatively flat first 4 years. Did multiple two year leases to same tennant and gave a nominal increase because it was profitable. On the flipside in the last few years it’s gone up a lot since and including 2019. My horizon on profits is a long term view, I rarely am looking at anything less than 10 years but then I’m not overly leveraged.
So I happen to agree rent prices are going to stagnate for a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me if next year it’s low like 1-3 nation wide in term of growth. Which is probably negative on effective rent. I’m also like no big deal because I think there are extra profits right now. Same thing with valuation. I got the last home purchased for 7% under asking (roof needed a repair so talked them into another $10k off even though I knew I needed a new roof going in). I expect to lose another 3-8% in the short term. Also don’t care because my rents are profitable, very, and I’m making money in the meanwhile.
I just htink peoples views of growth and/or timelines have gotten narrow (not you per say but in general). Rents will stagnate. Housing will to even after the initial drop. If I’m cash flow positive I’m fine because i know I won’t sell in less thna 25 years at best.
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
Quote from @John Carbone:
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
NOt too much new construction out there though thanks to builders stopping awhile back. This is happening in places due to all the shifts and the builders in particular are far more susceptible to finance changes. If there was a glut of new construction inventory it might matter - there’s not. So it will pass.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
NOt too much new construction out there though thanks to builders stopping awhile back. This is happening in places due to all the shifts and the builders in particular are far more susceptible to finance changes. If there was a glut of new construction inventory it might matter - there’s not. So it will pass.
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
New home construction starts jumped 6.8% in February, and a whopping 22% compared with the same time a year ago. That’s the fastest growth rate in building since 2006, according to Census data released on Thursday.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
we are approaching peak 2008 bubble levels. Inventory has gone parabolic this year.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
----> because 61.23% of these new homes are priced lower than $499k so upper-middle-class double income family is still *able* to catch this price range.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
----> because 61.23% of these new homes are priced lower than $499k so upper-middle-class double income family is still *able* to catch this price range.
Well they said 6 months ago that was going to happen, but now we are seeing price cuts. Bonuses are being cut at a lot of companies now. Intel announced up to 20 percent layoff. M&A activity collapsing.
Lennar begging for offers. I’ll have to research more on that to see how much they go below original asking, my guess will be close to 20 percent. And these will be comps. Have to imagine if a new builder can’t sell a home, why would someone pay a higher price for an older outdated house from a homeowner who doesn’t want to sell for less?
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
NOt too much new construction out there though thanks to builders stopping awhile back. This is happening in places due to all the shifts and the builders in particular are far more susceptible to finance changes. If there was a glut of new construction inventory it might matter - there’s not. So it will pass.
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
New home construction starts jumped 6.8% in February, and a whopping 22% compared with the same time a year ago. That’s the fastest growth rate in building since 2006, according to Census data released on Thursday.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
we are approaching peak 2008 bubble levels. Inventory has gone parabolic this year.
You are referencing new construction in Feb. It’s August. The builders all starting doing an about face in May/June time frame. And there is not this massive glut of new construction.
As to inventory levels. YOU might want to zoom in. July was high (but no where near 08 levels. What happened in August though? Oh yeah:
Also guess what time period houses started in Feb would be done about?
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
NOt too much new construction out there though thanks to builders stopping awhile back. This is happening in places due to all the shifts and the builders in particular are far more susceptible to finance changes. If there was a glut of new construction inventory it might matter - there’s not. So it will pass.
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
New home construction starts jumped 6.8% in February, and a whopping 22% compared with the same time a year ago. That’s the fastest growth rate in building since 2006, according to Census data released on Thursday.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
we are approaching peak 2008 bubble levels. Inventory has gone parabolic this year.
You are referencing new construction in Feb. It’s August. The builders all starting doing an about face in May/June time frame. And there is not this massive glut of new construction.
As to inventory levels. YOU might want to zoom in. July was high (but no where near 08 levels. What happened in August though? Oh yeah:
Also guess what time period houses started in Feb would be done about?
So 8 months supply is still good coming out of busy season when everyone buys before school starts? Why are homebuilders begging for offers before end of year? I thought they will just hodl their inventory until people pay asking?
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
----> because 61.23% of these new homes are priced lower than $499k so upper-middle-class double income family is still *able* to catch this price range.
Well they said 6 months ago that was going to happen, but now we are seeing price cuts. Bonuses are being cut at a lot of companies now. Intel announced up to 20 percent layoff. M&A activity collapsing.
Lennar begging for offers. I’ll have to research more on that to see how much they go below original asking, my guess will be close to 20 percent. And these will be comps. Have to imagine if a new builder can’t sell a home, why would someone pay a higher price for an older outdated house from a homeowner who doesn’t want to sell for less?
Intel has been hurting for some time, look at their stock over 5 years. They started cost cutting last year btw so this year is hardly new for them and in line with some of the tech shifts you are seeing. But not a big surprise
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
meanwhile in ground zero Austin Texas. Must be a seasonal adjustment
“During an earnings call, Central Texas was named as one of the few markets where Lennar had applied both price cuts and agent incentives but was still unable to shift its inventory.”
Bringing back some memories from a decade ago.
NOt too much new construction out there though thanks to builders stopping awhile back. This is happening in places due to all the shifts and the builders in particular are far more susceptible to finance changes. If there was a glut of new construction inventory it might matter - there’s not. So it will pass.
not sure that’s accurate… this was from 6 months ago. My favorite part is “
Building projects are way up, but don’t expect lower home prices anytime soon.”
New home construction starts jumped 6.8% in February, and a whopping 22% compared with the same time a year ago. That’s the fastest growth rate in building since 2006, according to Census data released on Thursday.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/f...
we are approaching peak 2008 bubble levels. Inventory has gone parabolic this year.
You are referencing new construction in Feb. It’s August. The builders all starting doing an about face in May/June time frame. And there is not this massive glut of new construction.
As to inventory levels. YOU might want to zoom in. July was high (but no where near 08 levels. What happened in August though? Oh yeah:
Also guess what time period houses started in Feb would be done about?
So 8 months supply is still good coming out of busy season when everyone buys before school starts? Why are homebuilders begging for offers before end of year? I thought they will just hodl their inventory until people pay asking?
Reread my original post on the topic. Builder financing is shorter term. They are more susceptible to the rate resets. So no I’ve never once said they will hold. It’s alos why they did an about face immediately this year.
Considering month over month we saw a 4 month supply disappear from July to August it’s very good. September numbers will tell a lot I’m expecting we are still down on inventory this month.
You also have to remember a lot of people in many parts of country May-August were trying to cash in on the high prices. it takes time to pul off. I don’t expect all of the houses dropped in August were sold. Some realized they missed the jump. But dropping 4 months in terms of supply in a single month is a lot.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
I did the research for you.
This is for Lennar.
The company ended the quarter with 184,000 home sites owned and 307,000 home sites controlled, combining 491,000 home sites. This translates into 2.9 years of home sites owned, an improvement from 3.3 years in the prior year, and 63% home site control, an improvement from 53% in the prior year. The strong portfolio of home sites provides the company with a strong competitive position to continue to grow its market share.
The company has made headway on its lighter land acquisition strategy, which aims to lower the amount of capital invested in land by acquiring smaller land parcels and relying more on land options to purchase property on a just-in-time basis. I have previously urged the critical importance of this approach that allows the firm to achieve higher returns on invested capital and cash flows over the current housing cycle.
Moreover, it is expected that the company will maintain tight inventory control. Although Lennar's inventory was up 20% YoY at the end of Q3 2022, the company highlighted that the increase in inventory level resulted from supply chain dysfunction and expanded cycle time. The management expects the inventory levels to shrink and generate substantial cash flow in the future.
My comments: dude this LEN,KBH,NVR is experiencing the highest margin record in 2022 as they make a lot of money, perhaps because lumber futures had moved back to their long-term trendlines.
Price action in October's Zillow is also different, many houses are sold in the top 5% range again unlike in July-August. Seasonality factor as James said.
This article analysis is also saying precisely like what I said that unsold houses are converted to rent ; hence the home price still continuously slowly rising even with 7% rate.
A very good read: https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I did the research for you.
This is for Lennar.
The company ended the quarter with 184,000 home sites owned and 307,000 home sites controlled, combining 491,000 home sites. This translates into 2.9 years of home sites owned, an improvement from 3.3 years in the prior year, and 63% home site control, an improvement from 53% in the prior year. The strong portfolio of home sites provides the company with a strong competitive position to continue to grow its market share.
The company has made headway on its lighter land acquisition strategy, which aims to lower the amount of capital invested in land by acquiring smaller land parcels and relying more on land options to purchase property on a just-in-time basis. I have previously urged the critical importance of this approach that allows the firm to achieve higher returns on invested capital and cash flows over the current housing cycle.
Moreover, it is expected that the company will maintain tight inventory control. Although Lennar's inventory was up 20% YoY at the end of Q3 2022, the company highlighted that the increase in inventory level resulted from supply chain dysfunction and expanded cycle time. The management expects the inventory levels to shrink and generate substantial cash flow in the future.
My comments: dude this LEN,KBH,NVR is experiencing the highest margin record in 2022 as they make a lot of money, perhaps because lumber futures had moved back to their long-term trendlines.
Price action in October's Zillow is also different, many houses are sold in the top 5% range again unlike in July-August. Seasonality factor as James said.
This article analysis is also saying precisely like what I said that unsold houses are converted to rent ; hence the home price still continuously slowly rising even with 7% rate.
A very good read: https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
Investors should be scooping up these homes from lennar then. It’s “free” money.
That’s a good article, but part 1 was referencing 5 percent rates. We are above 7 now, things are moving fast.
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
The way I know there's not much rent increase is thru some detective work :) LOL , maybe the Fed should follow my method instead.
- So I talk to the CEO of this Rental company okay, they give me a hundred addresses of their SFR inventory. I checked one by one, and most of their listing has rent price reduced, it's almost nationwide
- The way Fed method of gues-estimating OER is they do surveys thru interviews, this method is far from accurate as owner tend to overestimate rent, and even Zillow rent (called it ZORI )is overestimating rental growth, there's a lot of discussion on this in the financial blog.
- in CA for MF, rental owners can't increase rent for a certain percentage. There's lot of tenants still renting $3500 2022 rent price for only $2,500
- in my rental across US, only Indiana and Wisconsin have a slight increase, and that's not much. Alabama has no rent increase.
- Rental data is all over the place man, it's very messy. Only MF Class A+ has an absolute rental increase.
- Northeast may be strong in large rent growth. But if you look at this chart, the diff between 2019 to 2022 August rent is only 5% as there's huge rent decrease during covid. It's hardly noticeable.
https://www.realtor.com/resear...
Just just an out right lie, and wildly false.
As a person at "THE" agency who has the 2nd largest data pool on rents in the U.S.A. your wildly wrong, or just out right making things up. Rents have increased MASSIVLY since 2019. And it's a rather well known fact.
There is data all over the place on how significantly rents have gone up since 2019.
- James Hamling
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,188
- Votes |
- 3,998
- Posts
#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I did the research for you.
This is for Lennar.
The company ended the quarter with 184,000 home sites owned and 307,000 home sites controlled, combining 491,000 home sites. This translates into 2.9 years of home sites owned, an improvement from 3.3 years in the prior year, and 63% home site control, an improvement from 53% in the prior year. The strong portfolio of home sites provides the company with a strong competitive position to continue to grow its market share.
The company has made headway on its lighter land acquisition strategy, which aims to lower the amount of capital invested in land by acquiring smaller land parcels and relying more on land options to purchase property on a just-in-time basis. I have previously urged the critical importance of this approach that allows the firm to achieve higher returns on invested capital and cash flows over the current housing cycle.
Moreover, it is expected that the company will maintain tight inventory control. Although Lennar's inventory was up 20% YoY at the end of Q3 2022, the company highlighted that the increase in inventory level resulted from supply chain dysfunction and expanded cycle time. The management expects the inventory levels to shrink and generate substantial cash flow in the future.
My comments: dude this LEN,KBH,NVR is experiencing the highest margin record in 2022 as they make a lot of money, perhaps because lumber futures had moved back to their long-term trendlines.
Price action in October's Zillow is also different, many houses are sold in the top 5% range again unlike in July-August. Seasonality factor as James said.
This article analysis is also saying precisely like what I said that unsold houses are converted to rent ; hence the home price still continuously slowly rising even with 7% rate.
A very good read: https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
WTF is wrong with this John C. kid, I mean really, is he in Mom's basement chewing schrooms when making up these nut's inventions?
The above from Lennar is spot on. I know because I am inside this development circle, at the table of such decision actions and for what's coming next, as a strategist for such.
Spec builders are most likely feeling a pinch, but all who know Spec Building know that is par for the course. It is the very nature of of it. Developers are doing great, they learned from '08' and nothing is the same, inventory control is a universe different today.
Developers are not dripping a drop of sweat, not a single bead. IDK what Johns issue is other then he may want to stop getting his info from Alex J. and maybe get out into sunlight a bit more, actually get some reality going, do his mental health some good as all that doom and gloom has got to drive a person crackers.
- James Hamling
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I did the research for you.
This is for Lennar.
The company ended the quarter with 184,000 home sites owned and 307,000 home sites controlled, combining 491,000 home sites. This translates into 2.9 years of home sites owned, an improvement from 3.3 years in the prior year, and 63% home site control, an improvement from 53% in the prior year. The strong portfolio of home sites provides the company with a strong competitive position to continue to grow its market share.
The company has made headway on its lighter land acquisition strategy, which aims to lower the amount of capital invested in land by acquiring smaller land parcels and relying more on land options to purchase property on a just-in-time basis. I have previously urged the critical importance of this approach that allows the firm to achieve higher returns on invested capital and cash flows over the current housing cycle.
Moreover, it is expected that the company will maintain tight inventory control. Although Lennar's inventory was up 20% YoY at the end of Q3 2022, the company highlighted that the increase in inventory level resulted from supply chain dysfunction and expanded cycle time. The management expects the inventory levels to shrink and generate substantial cash flow in the future.
My comments: dude this LEN,KBH,NVR is experiencing the highest margin record in 2022 as they make a lot of money, perhaps because lumber futures had moved back to their long-term trendlines.
Price action in October's Zillow is also different, many houses are sold in the top 5% range again unlike in July-August. Seasonality factor as James said.
This article analysis is also saying precisely like what I said that unsold houses are converted to rent ; hence the home price still continuously slowly rising even with 7% rate.
A very good read: https://seekingalpha.com/artic...
WTF is wrong with this John C. kid, I mean really, is he in Mom's basement chewing schrooms when making up these nut's inventions?
The above from Lennar is spot on. I know because I am inside this development circle, at the table of such decision actions and for what's coming next, as a strategist for such.
Spec builders are most likely feeling a pinch, but all who know Spec Building know that is par for the course. It is the very nature of of it. Developers are doing great, they learned from '08' and nothing is the same, inventory control is a universe different today.
Developers are not dripping a drop of sweat, not a single bead. IDK what Johns issue is other then he may want to stop getting his info from Alex J. and maybe get out into sunlight a bit more, actually get some reality going, do his mental health some good as all that doom and gloom has got to drive a person crackers.
@James Hamling , how many times have you bought the dip in stocks? I recall you saying you bought stocks after every bear market rally. However, as of today, we are at the lows. Do you still have anything left to buy the dip? Might as well borrow from all your rentals and buy more stonks right? I mean eventually you will buy something at the bottom.
If the people took your advice and “now is best time to buy” which I think you say every time when someone asks (I think that’s like realtor 101 to get a license)……when is best time to buy (realtor turns around flash card , “now”…) you lose all credibility if you ever had any in the first place.
Housing is down over 5 percent from peak nationwide already, and we are in the first inning james. When all is said and done, you are going to need to build a little garage/apartment den on your parents or kids land using second hand scrap materials because your family wouldn’t let you sleep in their basement. I’ll tell you what, send me a message and I’ll give you my Home Depot shed for free, you can live in there and connect to BP from your families wifi and talk about how you “predicted this”
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap from people like you that are trying to dump turds. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs, mr super realtor?
btw, you talk a big game acting all important at your “firm”….nobody would take you see serious other than your assistants. And nobody who says they “are in the know” are actually who they claim to be. Everything you sell or rent on your “agency” is middle to lower class housing. Good for you little man, helping out the working class. Im proud of you. fortunately for yourself, you may do OK in this crash because the bottom heaps of RE will likely weather the storm better than most areas.
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it). And it’s very hard to make up strong cash flow, 2 years worth, even if you buy as a house dips. If you aren’t selling in the near term you aren’t losing anything but the cash flow of 2 years + paid down principal for that time.
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
If you think real estate is going to drop 15 percent why are you buying? There are risk free treasuries yielding 4 percent, great place to park money for 6-12 months. We are only 5 percent off on our projections, yet I’m doom and you aren’t?
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. Where are the aliens in the streets? You people really have been living in a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with math.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. You people really have been living in a a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with maths.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
I said nationally. Like I’ve pointed out a few times plenty of places only saw 13% during 08 and sorry that is going to be worse than this period.
Secondly you are assuming this is all going to happen over night. 6 months? Well we haven’t even dropped in the East yet so maybe it’s closer to 12-18 months…. Now it drops but by how much and what property can I find?
Meanwhile I used a combination of timing to get the last house 7% under, and I’m holding 6% rates vs the 7-8% people could end up with over the next 12 months. A full year of cash flow is 7% alone on the value, especially true if I factor in prime seasonality since that’s sooner and Id realize a lot of that cash flow earlier. 16 months gets me closer to 11%.
I’m buying because the deal made sense. Additionally in 12 months I’ll have the cash for another and it’s never fun to be needing more than one property due to timing, work, and getting it on the market. I did 3 over last 12 months, thanks to covid making it harder to grab them, even with cash buyers. And there’s not really an easy way to buy two properties at same time.
As to interest rates addiction. That I don’t get. I could care less if the cash flow and home value makes sense. The tennant is paying the interest not me.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. You people really have been living in a a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with maths.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
I said nationally. Like I’ve pointed out a few times plenty of places only saw 13% during 08 and sorry that is going to be worse than this.
Secondly you are assuming this is all going to happen over night. 6 months? Well we haven’t even dropped in the East yet so maybe it’s closer to 12-18 months…. Now it drops but by how much and what property can I find?
Meanwhile I used a combination of timing to get the last house 7% under, and I’m holding 6% rates vs the 7-8% people could end up with over the next 12 months. A full year of cash flow is 7% alone on the value, especially true if I factor in prime seasonality since that’s sooner and Id realize a lot of that cash flow earlier. 16 months gets me closer to 11%.
I’m buying because the deal made sense. Additionally in 12 months I’ll have the cash for another and it’s never fun to be needing more than one property due to timing, work, and getting it on the market. I did 3 over last 12 months, thanks to covid making it harder to grab them, even with cash buyers. And there’s not really an easy way to buy two properties at same time.
As to interest rates addiction. That I don’t get. I could care less if the cash flow and home value makes sense. The tennant is paying the interest not me.
housing is overvalued by every metric right now. For me to buy something right now, I would need to have a return of capital <18 months. There are also AAA bonds that are yielding close to 9 percent now that are liquid. Cash flow is better with a lower rate…you have more room for error with a low rate. If you are buying with a 7 percent rate right now, property dependent, you will not be in a better spot a year from now had you parked that cash in tbills or AAA credit. The deals will be much better next year.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. You people really have been living in a a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with maths.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
I said nationally. Like I’ve pointed out a few times plenty of places only saw 13% during 08 and sorry that is going to be worse than this.
Secondly you are assuming this is all going to happen over night. 6 months? Well we haven’t even dropped in the East yet so maybe it’s closer to 12-18 months…. Now it drops but by how much and what property can I find?
Meanwhile I used a combination of timing to get the last house 7% under, and I’m holding 6% rates vs the 7-8% people could end up with over the next 12 months. A full year of cash flow is 7% alone on the value, especially true if I factor in prime seasonality since that’s sooner and Id realize a lot of that cash flow earlier. 16 months gets me closer to 11%.
I’m buying because the deal made sense. Additionally in 12 months I’ll have the cash for another and it’s never fun to be needing more than one property due to timing, work, and getting it on the market. I did 3 over last 12 months, thanks to covid making it harder to grab them, even with cash buyers. And there’s not really an easy way to buy two properties at same time.
As to interest rates addiction. That I don’t get. I could care less if the cash flow and home value makes sense. The tennant is paying the interest not me.
housing is overvalued by every metric right now. For me to buy something right now, I would need to have a return of capital <18 months. There are also AAA bonds that are yielding close to 9 percent now that are liquid. Cash flow is better with a lower rate…you have more room for error with a low rate. If you are buying with a 7 percent rate right now, property dependent, you will not be in a better spot a year from now had you parked that cash in tbills or AAA credit. The deals will be much better next year.
Well you ignored a lot of what I pointed out around rates. but lets hit this. you said you are waiting for the fed to give you the green light. Are you not up to speed on where they are going? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/1...
Todays minutes alone suggest they will be hiking even early next year, which gets you close to 6 months alone and then holding steady into 2024. So now buying isn’t on the table until 2024. Maybe you get your 20%. I am actually expecting closer to 10% but planning as if it hits 15%.
My money can be else where sure but I need to know more about those investment types than real estate AND I have to assume I’m getting hit 15%.
All that said if you are waiting for the fed to lower rates you might not even hear that until Jan/Feb 2024.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. You people really have been living in a a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with maths.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
I said nationally. Like I’ve pointed out a few times plenty of places only saw 13% during 08 and sorry that is going to be worse than this.
Secondly you are assuming this is all going to happen over night. 6 months? Well we haven’t even dropped in the East yet so maybe it’s closer to 12-18 months…. Now it drops but by how much and what property can I find?
Meanwhile I used a combination of timing to get the last house 7% under, and I’m holding 6% rates vs the 7-8% people could end up with over the next 12 months. A full year of cash flow is 7% alone on the value, especially true if I factor in prime seasonality since that’s sooner and Id realize a lot of that cash flow earlier. 16 months gets me closer to 11%.
I’m buying because the deal made sense. Additionally in 12 months I’ll have the cash for another and it’s never fun to be needing more than one property due to timing, work, and getting it on the market. I did 3 over last 12 months, thanks to covid making it harder to grab them, even with cash buyers. And there’s not really an easy way to buy two properties at same time.
As to interest rates addiction. That I don’t get. I could care less if the cash flow and home value makes sense. The tennant is paying the interest not me.
housing is overvalued by every metric right now. For me to buy something right now, I would need to have a return of capital <18 months. There are also AAA bonds that are yielding close to 9 percent now that are liquid. Cash flow is better with a lower rate…you have more room for error with a low rate. If you are buying with a 7 percent rate right now, property dependent, you will not be in a better spot a year from now had you parked that cash in tbills or AAA credit. The deals will be much better next year.
Well you ignored a lot of what I pointed out around rates. but lets hit this. you said you are waiting for the fed to give you the green light. Are you not up to speed on where they are going? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/1...
Todays minutes alone suggest they will be hiking even early next year, which gets you close to 6 months alone and then holding steady into 2024. So now buying isn’t on the table until 2024. Maybe you get your 20%. I am actually expecting closer to 10% but planning as if it hits 15%.
My money can be else where sure but I need to know more about those investment types than real estate AND I have to assume I’m getting hit 15%.
All that said if you are waiting for the fed to lower rates you might not even hear that until Jan/Feb 2024.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
I’m not doom and gloom. Just stating facts. Facts don’t care about emotions. Business couldn’t be better right now, doesn’t mean I’m going to run out and buy overpriced crap people like you are trying to dump. Btw, who is Alex j? Someone else that has proven you wrong on your real estate bs mr super realtor?
Those two paragraphs really don’t add up. you aren’t doom and gloom but somehow predicting people with rentals and cash flow are going to go broke?
This is why i keep coming at your comments despite saying I am expecting 15% nationwide adjustment - planning for it even. Does that suddenly mean we are better off with are money in the bank? Not only losing 8% to inflation but not making you money?
Sorry but while the deal has to make sense when has that not been true? On top of that why is it you feel people should sit on cash? more importantly you yourself have outlined the tightening of underwriting and yet somehow people are going to magically lose money?
I just don’t get it. Equity in some respects is paper money as you’ve pointed out but if you are down a bit on paper money (but up overall) and cash flowing strong why would you not keep growing? It may be a joke that realtors say now is the best time to buy BUT there is a kernel of truth in there that the saying stems from - which is simply the reality that you aren’t making money doing nothing (and right now you are losing it).
So doom and gloom? yeah you pretty much are at this point.
I’ve said numerous times people who aren’t leveraged and who have low rate mortgages will be fine in this. That’s not doom.
i have 6 rentals and a primary house. I bought as recently as March. Im not buying now though.
it’s crazy how saying housing will drop to 2019 levels plus 10 percent is doom and gloom. You people really have been living in a a giant bubble. Sorry for “triggering” all you low interest rate addicts with maths.
Jpowell has flushed out the crypto fad, NFTers, SPACS, zombie companies, and saving the biggest and last bubble for last.
I said nationally. Like I’ve pointed out a few times plenty of places only saw 13% during 08 and sorry that is going to be worse than this.
Secondly you are assuming this is all going to happen over night. 6 months? Well we haven’t even dropped in the East yet so maybe it’s closer to 12-18 months…. Now it drops but by how much and what property can I find?
Meanwhile I used a combination of timing to get the last house 7% under, and I’m holding 6% rates vs the 7-8% people could end up with over the next 12 months. A full year of cash flow is 7% alone on the value, especially true if I factor in prime seasonality since that’s sooner and Id realize a lot of that cash flow earlier. 16 months gets me closer to 11%.
I’m buying because the deal made sense. Additionally in 12 months I’ll have the cash for another and it’s never fun to be needing more than one property due to timing, work, and getting it on the market. I did 3 over last 12 months, thanks to covid making it harder to grab them, even with cash buyers. And there’s not really an easy way to buy two properties at same time.
As to interest rates addiction. That I don’t get. I could care less if the cash flow and home value makes sense. The tennant is paying the interest not me.
housing is overvalued by every metric right now. For me to buy something right now, I would need to have a return of capital <18 months. There are also AAA bonds that are yielding close to 9 percent now that are liquid. Cash flow is better with a lower rate…you have more room for error with a low rate. If you are buying with a 7 percent rate right now, property dependent, you will not be in a better spot a year from now had you parked that cash in tbills or AAA credit. The deals will be much better next year.
Well you ignored a lot of what I pointed out around rates. but lets hit this. you said you are waiting for the fed to give you the green light. Are you not up to speed on where they are going? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/1...
Todays minutes alone suggest they will be hiking even early next year, which gets you close to 6 months alone and then holding steady into 2024. So now buying isn’t on the table until 2024. Maybe you get your 20%. I am actually expecting closer to 10% but planning as if it hits 15%.
My money can be else where sure but I need to know more about those investment types than real estate AND I have to assume I’m getting hit 15%.
All that said if you are waiting for the fed to lower rates you might not even hear that until Jan/Feb 2024.
CoC on 40% certainly limits your option. I'm looking at 33% for that period but 40% is asking a lot.
As to lower rates not much different than my plan on the last purchase. I’m unlikely to buy with rates at the current numbers but that was part of the plan also. Buy now, on a property I pushed down price wise, and be ready to go again in the next 12-18 months which timing wise should be put me good.
And hell I’ll refi my 6% property down the road as well.