Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

but sure…..real estate is different.

Jerome Powell is out there popping bubbles in every asset class. He’s saving the best for the last (housing) 

 Not familiar enough with the the truck market but I’m still seeing 50-100k mark-up on some higher end Porsches. And car price edged up in August even higher. It would be nice if this is changing but car prices are out of control with new car price now $49k average… 

@Carlos Ptriawan used cars did drop but new cars still went up. Considering used was selling above new for a bit there not so sure it’s a win… yet.

Yeah this is mainly dependent on model. A base model vehicle is going to have some discounts. Certain vehicles such as rare sports cars or limited edition vehicles have had markups for many, many years - long before the housing bubble. I recently bought a very rare/ limited edition truck and got off extremely light *only* having to pay a 7k markup. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

but sure…..real estate is different.

Jerome Powell is out there popping bubbles in every asset class. He’s saving the best for the last (housing) 

 Not familiar enough with the the truck market but I’m still seeing 50-100k mark-up on some higher end Porsches. And car price edged up in August even higher. It would be nice if this is changing but car prices are out of control with new car price now $49k average… 

@Carlos Ptriawan used cars did drop but new cars still went up. Considering used was selling above new for a bit there not so sure it’s a win… yet.

Yeah this is mainly dependent on model. A base model vehicle is going to have some discounts. Certain vehicles such as rare sports cars or limited edition vehicles have had markups for many, many years - long before the housing bubble. I recently bought a very rare/ limited edition truck and got off extremely light *only* having to pay a 7k markup. 

Well they had premiums over summer of 5k everywhere on this model, now it’s 4K discount on msrp. So it is comparing the same. This is just getting started. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

Actually CAR and FOOD prices already goes down.

Read the chart here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/mark... 

For Food it's already trending down including meat. Only cereal slightly up than last month.
Read the chart here:
https://www.fao.org/worldfoods... 

To be honest I don't understand why the Fed is so crazy fighting inflation when inflation is already almost normalized. These grand-pa really needs to be replaced their way of thinking LOL

I don't know about this... not seeing it. Groceries are still super expensive and I usually shop at a few different stores every week. Virtually everything we buy at the grocery store is way up in price. Not sure if this is based on location, but in Dallas I'm surprised to see groceries this high. They are basically the same price as San Diego, which is one of the most expensive places to live in the country. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

but sure…..real estate is different.

Jerome Powell is out there popping bubbles in every asset class. He’s saving the best for the last (housing) 

 Not familiar enough with the the truck market but I’m still seeing 50-100k mark-up on some higher end Porsches. And car price edged up in August even higher. It would be nice if this is changing but car prices are out of control with new car price now $49k average… 

@Carlos Ptriawan used cars did drop but new cars still went up. Considering used was selling above new for a bit there not so sure it’s a win… yet.

Yeah this is mainly dependent on model. A base model vehicle is going to have some discounts. Certain vehicles such as rare sports cars or limited edition vehicles have had markups for many, many years - long before the housing bubble. I recently bought a very rare/ limited edition truck and got off extremely light *only* having to pay a 7k markup. 

 I’m use  to markup but not paying $100k on a 200k porsche. Insane. When they come back to reality of 7-10% maybe. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

but sure…..real estate is different.

Jerome Powell is out there popping bubbles in every asset class. He’s saving the best for the last (housing) 

 Not familiar enough with the the truck market but I’m still seeing 50-100k mark-up on some higher end Porsches. And car price edged up in August even higher. It would be nice if this is changing but car prices are out of control with new car price now $49k average… 

@Carlos Ptriawan used cars did drop but new cars still went up. Considering used was selling above new for a bit there not so sure it’s a win… yet.

Yeah this is mainly dependent on model. A base model vehicle is going to have some discounts. Certain vehicles such as rare sports cars or limited edition vehicles have had markups for many, many years - long before the housing bubble. I recently bought a very rare/ limited edition truck and got off extremely light *only* having to pay a 7k markup. 

 Used to markup but not paying $100k on a 200k porsche. Insane. When they come back to reality of 7-10% maybe. 

The 100k plus luxury cars won’t drop as quickly since those are generally purchased with cash. 75k and under vehicles which are what majority of Americans buy, are primarily used with financing. The demand from these people Are taking a massive hit with rising rates. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

but sure…..real estate is different.

Jerome Powell is out there popping bubbles in every asset class. He’s saving the best for the last (housing) 

 Not familiar enough with the the truck market but I’m still seeing 50-100k mark-up on some higher end Porsches. And car price edged up in August even higher. It would be nice if this is changing but car prices are out of control with new car price now $49k average… 

@Carlos Ptriawan used cars did drop but new cars still went up. Considering used was selling above new for a bit there not so sure it’s a win… yet.

Yeah this is mainly dependent on model. A base model vehicle is going to have some discounts. Certain vehicles such as rare sports cars or limited edition vehicles have had markups for many, many years - long before the housing bubble. I recently bought a very rare/ limited edition truck and got off extremely light *only* having to pay a 7k markup. 

Well they had premiums over summer of 5k everywhere on this model, now it’s 4K discount on msrp. So it is comparing the same. This is just getting started. 

If there is one industry that is deserving of a full crash, it's the car sales industry. A vast majority of these guys are low-life vultures. Over the last 18 months they have been happily preying on people with no regard. Any time I have to deal with them I get the worst feeling. Especially with the "finance managers", ugh... 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:I don't know about this... not seeing it. Groceries are still super expensive and I usually shop at a few different stores every week. Virtually everything we buy at the grocery store is way up in price. Not sure if this is based on location, but in Dallas I'm surprised to see groceries this high. They are basically the same price as San Diego, which is one of the most expensive places to live in the country. 

That's why I say it if FAO food price is going down BUT PPI in US still high it just means the importer/producer in US is taking higher profit margin and unwilling to reduce the price. 

Inflation is sometimes caused by a company that doesn't want to lower the price even if they can.

It's similar to what Biden says that he asked every gas pump and oil company to reduce its price/ profitability.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:If there is one industry that is deserving of a full crash, it's the car sales industry. A vast majority of these guys are low-life vultures. Over the last 18 months they have been happily preying on people with no regard. Any time I have to deal with them I get the worst feeling. Especially with the "finance managers", ugh... 

Totally, especially European car dealership. :)

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:I don't know about this... not seeing it. Groceries are still super expensive and I usually shop at a few different stores every week. Virtually everything we buy at the grocery store is way up in price. Not sure if this is based on location, but in Dallas I'm surprised to see groceries this high. They are basically the same price as San Diego, which is one of the most expensive places to live in the country. 

That's why I say it if FAO food price is going down BUT PPI in US still high it just means the importer/producer in US is taking higher profit margin and unwilling to reduce the price. 

Inflation is sometimes caused by a company that doesn't want to lower the price even if they can.

It's similar to what Biden says that he asked every gas pump and oil company to reduce its price/ profitability.

Don’t they need more holdback to pay higher wages though? I actually read that the spread on retail gasoline is a losing proposition for gas stations (money loser)…maybe not in cali though. 

[Robert Washington]

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 This right here! A potential crash seems inevitable at this point I don't know why someone who actively say it is impossible. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Robert Washington:

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 This right here! A potential crash seems inevitable at this point I don't know why someone who actively say it is impossible. 

Define crash first please. That’s been 90% of the argument over 40 pages…. Also is it national or regional on the crash?  

[Carlos Ptriawan]

PPI in Germany right now is reaching an all-time high. Germany almost had a negative balance of trade because of Russian energy dependency.

If you really want to buy German car , wait for another 6-8 months after their company/country collapse and there will be fire discount of everything made-in-germany.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

PPI in Germany right now is reaching an all-time high. Germany almost had a negative balance of trade because of Russian energy dependency.

If you really want to buy German car , wait for another 6-8 months after their company/country collapse and there will be fire discount of everything made-in-germany.

 Yeah I’m in no rush I have to be good for 5-6 years. I waited 7 years between the Z06 and the S4 and built our home, paid off one rental and bought 3 more rentals. I need to wait another 4-5 rentals before I get that. Then it has to tide me over 10 years until retirement. 

But I am keeping an eye on the market. Just mind blowing to me what the GT3 is marked up to right now. On the flip side they dont really lose value so it’s sort of a one time investment and then keep flipping for some small losses. 

[John Carbone]

Interesting article/discussion today from a large developer.

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Interesting article/discussion today from a large developer.

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

Btw today I made appt at local bank to open a CD account, they had 6 months CD for 4%.
My latest refi cashout was 2.9%.  I guess this is the easiest way to make money without any effort  LOL

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Interesting article/discussion today from a large developer.

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

Btw today I made appt at local bank to open a CD account, they had 6 months CD for 4%.
My latest refi cashout was 2.9%.  I guess this is the easiest way to make money without any effort  LOL

Yup, there is now a real opportunity cost now when buying traditional rental real estate with low cash flow, which unless rents go higher (doesn’t seem likely), less demand for rental real estate (ie, prices drop) 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Interesting article/discussion today from a large developer.

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

Btw today I made appt at local bank to open a CD account, they had 6 months CD for 4%.
My latest refi cashout was 2.9%.  I guess this is the easiest way to make money without any effort  LOL

Yup, there is now a real opportunity cost now when buying traditional rental real estate with low cash flow, which unless rents go higher (doesn’t seem likely), less demand for rental real estate (ie, prices drop) 

actually a private investment firm already advising their client to move assets from equity investment to credit/debt -based investment.
IRR in real estate is 6%, nothing exciting and we have to agree real estate is high risk and expensive now.

It's easier to become a bank/lender right now. Could get into low risk debt with 9-10% return.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Robert Washington:

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 This right here! A potential crash seems inevitable at this point I don't know why someone who actively say it is impossible. 

 Because we have an actual education in economics, and experience in such. That's why, because we actually understand things vs guess at things. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

PPI in Germany right now is reaching an all-time high. Germany almost had a negative balance of trade because of Russian energy dependency.

If you really want to buy German car , wait for another 6-8 months after their company/country collapse and there will be fire discount of everything made-in-germany.

 Your kidding me right? Now your forecasting the collapse of Germany....... 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

 Your kidding me right? Now your forecasting the collapse of Germany....... 

today PPI in germany

https://imgur.com/a/hGq8tPj 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Robert Washington:

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 This right here! A potential crash seems inevitable at this point I don't know why someone who actively say it is impossible. 

Define crash first please. That’s been 90% of the argument over 40 pages…. Also is it national or regional on the crash?  

 It was defined by the Doom-Preachers several pages back that -Nationally and -30%+ "CRASH" in median home prices.     Which for some reason none actually know what the definition of "CRASH" means because, it's not happening. Crash is a SUDDEN thing, not over months and years. 

But whatever, I have given up, this whole thread has descending into nothing but Trolling on Fear-Porn of how everything everywhere is collapsing. 

Come x-mas this thread will still be going on about excuses on how the "crash" got delayed because of ___ and how it's "just around the corner".... 

Still waiting on the covid moratorium "collapse" people, is that still "coming soon"? Where is those mass foreclosures I was promised 2 years ago? And again 18 months ago, and 1 year ago???? 

And I thought we were having mass layoff's? What happened in the jobs report? I thought that would show the calamity at hand? 

I was promised a "certain collapse" on this thread, wtf, where's my 30%+ discount and properties flooding the market for sale? Jimmy needs a new lakefront place. Seriously, I would like a new lakefront place, I would. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Robert Washington:

Quote from @Randall Weatherall:

Anyone that says anything in the housing market is 'impossible' probably isn't worth listening to or are very new and get a little too swept up in articles written by people with something to gain.

 This right here! A potential crash seems inevitable at this point I don't know why someone who actively say it is impossible. 

Define crash first please. That’s been 90% of the argument over 40 pages…. Also is it national or regional on the crash?  

 It was defined by the Doom-Preachers several pages back that -Nationally and -30%+ "CRASH" in median home prices.     Which for some reason none actually know what the definition of "CRASH" means because, it's not happening. Crash is a SUDDEN thing, not over months and years. 

But whatever, I have given up, this whole thread has descending into nothing but Trolling on Fear-Porn of how everything everywhere is collapsing. 

Come x-mas this thread will still be going on about excuses on how the "crash" got delayed because of ___ and how it's "just around the corner".... 

Still waiting on the covid moratorium "collapse" people, is that still "coming soon"? Where is those mass foreclosures I was promised 2 years ago? And again 18 months ago, and 1 year ago???? 

And I thought we were having mass layoff's? What happened in the jobs report? I thought that would show the calamity at hand? 

I was promised a "certain collapse" on this thread, wtf, where's my 30%+ discount and properties flooding the market for sale? Jimmy needs a new lakefront place. Seriously, I would like a new lakefront place, I would. 

I’ve been calling for 20-30 percent drop in next 18 months. Don’t think your going to get off with an excuse when this happens 12 months from now by saying doesn’t count because it wasn’t “sudden”, prolonged period of declining real estate values is what’s coming.  Even in 2008 housing drops wasn’t instant or sudden, but it’s still regarded as a collapse. 

How are your stonks doing?  The market is gradually bleeding down, but it’s not a crash because it’s not “sudden”. Does it feel better that it didn’t happen all in one day? You like the gradual drawdown seeing your investments drop orderly?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

be patient a little bit James, we are in CA  helping Fed slowly by reducing the home price by -13% today. We will make it -22% don't worry :)
At least a region should hit this -20% :) LOL

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

Actually CAR and FOOD prices already goes down.

Read the chart here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/mark... 

For Food it's already trending down including meat. Only cereal slightly up than last month.
Read the chart here:
https://www.fao.org/worldfoods... 

To be honest I don't understand why the Fed is so crazy fighting inflation when inflation is already almost normalized. These grand-pa really needs to be replaced their way of thinking LOL

 Carlos, my friend, I am not sure why you think inflation is under control, not even close. This is just the begining of it all. And the Fed is freaking out because of exactly what I have been saying and warning is the Front-Loading of the economy coming into this with huge shortages "nerf'd" the ability of rates to impact the inflation in meaningful ways as it should, and there seeing that. 

They are kicking out oil from strategic reserve like crazy, it's barely keeping fuel prices at this inflated level at best, they've done all these rapid rate hits, it's not pressing things down in any meaningful response. There pooping themselves thinking "Holly F#$k we are screwed once we stop kicking out oil if we can't get things knocked down because trans. cost will shot through the roof and with it, everything and spur another inflation run, WTF do we do J-POW-wow, what-do-we-do???". 

Know what J-POW says "F'd if I know, you morons made this mess! WTF do I gotta clean up your sh#t for all the time?!" And he's right. 

If the domestic tap doesnt get turned back on, and fast I mean like 35 days and ticking fast, oh man, things are gonna rip again. Buckle up kiddo's, the rides just getting started. 

And guess what, when they can't get costs under control, when they realize they can't kill this Hulk called inflation, there going to flip gears and go to the next which is some way some how of people having $$$$ to get through it. I 100% guarantee, watch.    And if you say no-way, well did ya think they'd pay people to sit at home, and they sure as heck did that didn't they. That has now set a presidence so yes 100% they can solve inflation by kicking out a national stipend, some kind of inflation-emergency-assistance-act, watch. 

Oh, but kicking out all that $$$$ will make inflation you say, lol, yeah, no kidding, but apparently Joe-Jo don't know-know because he just keeps doing it don't he. Didn't stop him before and what did he say then? That were all too dumb to get it, the gov issuing out these payments won't make inflation, no, we plebians just don't get it. Yeah, remember that. 

As I have been saying, if your planning for any big discount on anything, good luck with that, you have no idea what kind of ride were in store for, it's a whole different horror show. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

looks like the fed is pricking the car bubble finally. Just received this email from a car dealer. To put this in perspective this vehicle mentioned below had a 5k premium above msrp 3 months ago. Now, it’s 4K below msrp, so in the matter of months 17 percent drop in value for new vehicle from peak.

Over the summer heard the same BS from the car gurus..”but there’s a car shortage from the chips, the chips, the chips, it will take years to recover….then rates spiked and poof there goes the demand. 

Actually CAR and FOOD prices already goes down.

Read the chart here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/mark... 

For Food it's already trending down including meat. Only cereal slightly up than last month.
Read the chart here:
https://www.fao.org/worldfoods... 

To be honest I don't understand why the Fed is so crazy fighting inflation when inflation is already almost normalized. These grand-pa really needs to be replaced their way of thinking LOL

 Carlos, my friend, I am not sure why you think inflation is under control, not even close. This is just the begining of it all. And the Fed is freaking out because of exactly what I have been saying and warning is the Front-Loading of the economy coming into this with huge shortages "nerf'd" the ability of rates to impact the inflation in meaningful ways as it should, and there seeing that. 

They are kicking out oil from strategic reserve like crazy, it's barely keeping fuel prices at this inflated level at best, they've done all these rapid rate hits, it's not pressing things down in any meaningful response. There pooping themselves thinking "Holly F#$k we are screwed once we stop kicking out oil if we can't get things knocked down because trans. cost will shot through the roof and with it, everything and spur another inflation run, WTF do we do J-POW-wow, what-do-we-do???". 

Know what J-POW says "F'd if I know, you morons made this mess! WTF do I gotta clean up your sh#t for all the time?!" And he's right. 

If the domestic tap doesnt get turned back on, and fast I mean like 35 days and ticking fast, oh man, things are gonna rip again. Buckle up kiddo's, the rides just getting started. 

And guess what, when they can't get costs under control, when they realize they can't kill this Hulk called inflation, there going to flip gears and go to the next which is some way some how of people having $$$$ to get through it. I 100% guarantee, watch.    And if you say no-way, well did ya think they'd pay people to sit at home, and they sure as heck did that didn't they. That has now set a presidence so yes 100% they can solve inflation by kicking out a national stipend, some kind of inflation-emergency-assistance-act, watch. 

Oh, but kicking out all that $$$$ will make inflation you say, lol, yeah, no kidding, but apparently Joe-Jo don't know-know because he just keeps doing it don't he. Didn't stop him before and what did he say then? That were all too dumb to get it, the gov issuing out these payments won't make inflation, no, we plebians just don't get it. Yeah, remember that. 

As I have been saying, if your planning for any big discount on anything, good luck with that, you have no idea what kind of ride were in store for, it's a whole different horror show. 

Mostly accurate, except housing will drop 20-30 first then they do the cuts again and money spigot gets unleashed.