Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.

That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger. 





 

If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.

Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast.  All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]

Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash.

 UK is complicated by the PM policies right now and also the fallout from brexit. Not going to predict that market.

And yes I’m assuming the expedited fed meeting has to do with some of this though. 

United Nations, yes United Nations today just ask Fed to STOP the rate increase.
First time happening in the free world.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u...

 @Carlos Ptriawan not completely surprised about the pain so to speak. Little crazy to see the UN to say t but I think the good news from this is the fed has probably reached that tipping point. Maybe they pull back on October rate increase and let the pain start ot hit. The job losses are coming q4, I just don't want them to go overboard - sounds like they would if they continued. And definitely would for world currencies and other nations since our strong dollar is hurting them.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

Good post. Not totally surprising and matches what I've been saying East Coast vs West Coast. To see massive downturn nationally on median price I don't see how it happens unless Florida market falls out (due to size and grwoth last few years). But it hasn't been happening:

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

It's still very early in the crash. These price decreases aren't going to happen overnight. I'm very interested to see how this will reflect in December/ January after a few months worth of 6-7% + rates. At that point I think the gravity of the situation will start to sink in to those who are still in denial. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

It's still very early in the crash. These price decreases aren't going to happen overnight. I'm very interested to see how this will reflect in December/ January after a few months worth of 6-7% + rates. At that point I think the gravity of the situation will start to sink in to those who are still in denial. 

This is, yet again, DECEPTIVE / HYPERBOLIC language. 

A market "crash" is defined as a SUDDEN steep market price drop of 10%+. Often facilitated by a sudden, unforeseen condition, for example a collapse of the financial system (see 2008). 

An adjustment in market prices of 10%, over a gradual time duration as measured in weeks/months is, definitively, a market adjustment NOT "crash". 

When a person says a market "crash" you are, by definition saying R.E. prices dropping 10%+, suddenly, immediately, as in within the next days. For example some saying "crash" on here have confirmed they are saying 20%+ drop in the immediacy. 

Again, if going to use words like "Market Crash" please, let's keep things in a reality perspective vs reassigning words new and different meanings. You can't "self-identify" market movement definitions. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

It's still very early in the crash. These price decreases aren't going to happen overnight. I'm very interested to see how this will reflect in December/ January after a few months worth of 6-7% + rates. At that point I think the gravity of the situation will start to sink in to those who are still in denial. 

This is, yet again, DECEPTIVE / HYPERBOLIC language. 

A market "crash" is defined as a SUDDEN steep market price drop of 10%+. Often facilitated by a sudden, unforeseen condition, for example a collapse of the financial system (see 2008). 

An adjustment in market prices of 10%, over a gradual time duration as measured in weeks/months is, definitively, a market adjustment NOT "crash". 

When a person says a market "crash" you are, by definition saying R.E. prices dropping 10%+, suddenly, immediately, as in within the next days. For example some saying "crash" on here have confirmed they are saying 20%+ drop in the immediacy. 

Again, if going to use words like "Market Crash" please, let's keep things in a reality perspective vs reassigning words new and different meanings. You can't "self-identify" market movement definitions. 

Oh JIMBO, you flip-flop more than government officials. I've been calling for 20-30% drop through 2023. So now, you are setting the stage for saying we will be wrong because it doesn't happen in a day or a few months? Housing is not very liquid, a housing "crash" doesn't happen instantly, you should know this. Even the 2008 housing drop didn't happen instantly, it developed over time. There are a ton of misinformed Kool-Aid drinkers like yourself who are still in denial, which is why prices haven't fully fallen yet. Let's rephrase now and call it a housing "draw-down" of 20-30%, sound better Jimmy? Is that a better definition? So a 10% drop in values is now in the card for you (full pivot?)

At what percentage drop is it not considered an "adjustment"??? 20% over 18 months still an adjustment? 50% over 2 years? I don't think anyone will care about the semantics of it when housing drops 20-30%

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

It's still very early in the crash. These price decreases aren't going to happen overnight. I'm very interested to see how this will reflect in December/ January after a few months worth of 6-7% + rates. At that point I think the gravity of the situation will start to sink in to those who are still in denial. 

This is, yet again, DECEPTIVE / HYPERBOLIC language. 

A market "crash" is defined as a SUDDEN steep market price drop of 10%+. Often facilitated by a sudden, unforeseen condition, for example a collapse of the financial system (see 2008). 

An adjustment in market prices of 10%, over a gradual time duration as measured in weeks/months is, definitively, a market adjustment NOT "crash". 

When a person says a market "crash" you are, by definition saying R.E. prices dropping 10%+, suddenly, immediately, as in within the next days. For example some saying "crash" on here have confirmed they are saying 20%+ drop in the immediacy. 

Again, if going to use words like "Market Crash" please, let's keep things in a reality perspective vs reassigning words new and different meanings. You can't "self-identify" market movement definitions. 

The right word may be "Partial Market price adjustments".
While the crash is for "Bond Market crashes".

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

fair enough, you can see why I would not want to sell my asset since it is producing cash flow for me. I understand why you wouldn't want to speculate in options on it. I do agree MFH is going to hold up well through this period. We tend to agree on over 90%, but you just won't accept the possibility of a 20-30% drop in housing over 18 months. You seem to think 10% is possible, so we are kind of arguing about semantics here. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I was expecting a lot 4-5%. Even 3.5% - 5%. I’m a little shocked half are under 3.5% though. It’s starting to look more and more like the housing market is going to stagnate.

That said Credit Swiss doesn’t look too good. Keeping an eye on how that plays out because they are big enough of all financial markets will feel it - truly hoping thye force a UBS merger. 





 

If we see total refi applications between 2020-2021, the number spikes so high it could be 10-20% of total refinance applications between 2009 to 2022. Loan Depot takes my refi process so long that it only finished after 7 months.

Regarding Credit Suisse, it's just impossible for Fed to do QT while BOE and BOJ would like to continue QE, especially when Fed is raising the rate too high too fast.  All these banks or nations will just collapse one by one [ what Fed did this year in my opinion is very stupid, it cause destabilization in Europe and the rest of the world ]

Yesterday there was news people in UK is demonstrating "cost of living", btw their mortgage is 2YARM and 5YARM so we may expect the housing/economy market in Europe to crash.

 UK is complicated by the PM policies right now and also the fallout from brexit. Not going to predict that market.

And yes I’m assuming the expedited fed meeting has to do with some of this though. 

United Nations, yes United Nations today just ask Fed to STOP the rate increase.
First time happening in the free world.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u...

 Lol, the U.N.. Now that's a do-nothing group of people if I ever meet any. Apparently they need something to get focus away from dealing with a member of the security council threatening to nuke people. Good job U.N., way to keep the peace in the world. 

Hey, on a side note, what has a warlord or dictator never said? "But, we can't, the U.N. would.....". 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

I see a lot of trouble coming in analysis, as I think many are going to confuse market specific adjustments as being a translation of the entire national market. 

While the entire national market has seen a significant bull-run, the degrees to such vary wildly across the nation. Seattle is a good example of such. 

Yes it's clearly defined in BlackKnight's mortgage report on page 20.

If your market is on the top left of the chart, you would not feel price reduction.
If your market is on the right side and especially right bottom of the market, you will feel the price reduction. 

It's so clear from this presentation.

Again link is https://www.blackknightinc.com...

It's still very early in the crash. These price decreases aren't going to happen overnight. I'm very interested to see how this will reflect in December/ January after a few months worth of 6-7% + rates. At that point I think the gravity of the situation will start to sink in to those who are still in denial. 

This is, yet again, DECEPTIVE / HYPERBOLIC language. 

A market "crash" is defined as a SUDDEN steep market price drop of 10%+. Often facilitated by a sudden, unforeseen condition, for example a collapse of the financial system (see 2008). 

An adjustment in market prices of 10%, over a gradual time duration as measured in weeks/months is, definitively, a market adjustment NOT "crash". 

When a person says a market "crash" you are, by definition saying R.E. prices dropping 10%+, suddenly, immediately, as in within the next days. For example some saying "crash" on here have confirmed they are saying 20%+ drop in the immediacy. 

Again, if going to use words like "Market Crash" please, let's keep things in a reality perspective vs reassigning words new and different meanings. You can't "self-identify" market movement definitions. 

I don't think the term is deceptive or hyperbolic. Depending on who you ask, I'm sure you would get a lot of different variations as to what a "crash" is. I've been pretty consistent that my opinion of this crash is that it's going to take several months or more to unfold. Sure, the last crash might have happened much more quickly due to a something that's easy to put our finger on now (Monday morning QB). 

However, both can be true. In one situation a crash can happen abruptly, and another can take months to come to pass. These definitions are not mutually exclusive, they can both be accurate ways to describe something. 

I feel like what we're seeing now is similar to a slow-mo crash between two large vessels. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

fair enough, you can see why I would not want to sell my asset since it is producing cash flow for me. I understand why you wouldn't want to speculate in options on it. I do agree MFH is going to hold up well through this period. We tend to agree on over 90%, but you just won't accept the possibility of a 20-30% drop in housing over 18 months. You seem to think 10% is possible, so we are kind of arguing about semantics here. 

 I would call it more fundamentals then semantics. 

Your calling for a collapse, in some iteration. 

I am forecasting market adjustments, with consolidations. Some market specific areas will of course have larger variations then others, both upward and downward, as has always been the case and always will be, only peoples attention and knowledge of such change. 

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

fair enough, you can see why I would not want to sell my asset since it is producing cash flow for me. I understand why you wouldn't want to speculate in options on it. I do agree MFH is going to hold up well through this period. We tend to agree on over 90%, but you just won't accept the possibility of a 20-30% drop in housing over 18 months. You seem to think 10% is possible, so we are kind of arguing about semantics here. 

 I would call it more fundamentals then semantics. 

Your calling for a collapse, in some iteration. 

I am forecasting market adjustments, with consolidations. Some market specific areas will of course have larger variations then others, both upward and downward, as has always been the case and always will be, only peoples attention and knowledge of such change. 

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

 all I am calling for is a 20-30% drop by end of 2023. I don't care what the proper definition of that is. I don't think real estate holders care either. Once we get the drop, it will be stagflation for a while. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

At what percentage drop is it not considered an "adjustment"??? 20% over 18 months still an adjustment? 50% over 2 years? I don't think anyone will care about the semantics of it when housing drops 20-30%

I think James keeps saying there's no crash because his market is really doing well, all recently sold houses are still reaching an all-time high, I checked the latest house sold in Zillow from 3550 Fremont Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55408 to 5726 Bryant Ave S they all have good price and no price adjustment.

Since nobody is really buying "national" home price is argument is making sense as well. 

The next test would be Dec this year, is the market going to have 'full market crash' or continue 'partial price adjustment' like today ??

[Carlos Ptriawan]

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

The Black Swan would be from the 'bond market crash' that's already happening today.

The big question: what happens after bond market crashes? will it affect real estate?

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

The Black Swan would be from the 'bond market crash' that's already happening today.

The big question: what happens after bond market crashes? will it affect real estate?

The big question comes back to the Fed. Are they willing to crash the global economy? it's looking like the global economy will break before the US does. So do they back off and hope the global downturn + paired with the jobs losses coming is enough to slow/stop inflation? 

If they are willing to break the global economy though. All bets are off on where those dominos fall. I just never thought that far. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

The big question comes back to the Fed. Are they willing to crash the global economy? it's looking like the global economy will break before the US does. So do they back off and hope the global downturn + paired with the jobs losses coming is enough to slow/stop inflation? 

If they are willing to break the global economy though. All bets are off on where those dominos fall. I just never thought that far. 

Yes. So far it seems The Fed will leave their Anglo-Saxon friends alone.

While for Asia, countries that are positive in Balance Trade surplus (good positive export), actually make more money now due to the booming of commodity market and their weak currency.

The bond market is very funny, never before has the yield between developing countries lower than in the developed country. 

But if tomorrow all European countries decide to use Euro or pound to buy Oil, then the USD value may be cut in half.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

At what percentage drop is it not considered an "adjustment"??? 20% over 18 months still an adjustment? 50% over 2 years? I don't think anyone will care about the semantics of it when housing drops 20-30%

I think James keeps saying there's no crash because his market is really doing well, all recently sold houses are still reaching an all-time high, I checked the latest house sold in Zillow from 3550 Fremont Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55408 to 5726 Bryant Ave S they all have good price and no price adjustment.

Since nobody is really buying "national" home price is argument is making sense as well. 

The next test would be Dec this year, is the market going to have 'full market crash' or continue 'partial price adjustment' like today ??

 Again, not sure how to define "full crash", but my opinion is that it will be significant by Dec. I think more than a percentage point or two here and there. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

fair enough, you can see why I would not want to sell my asset since it is producing cash flow for me. I understand why you wouldn't want to speculate in options on it. I do agree MFH is going to hold up well through this period. We tend to agree on over 90%, but you just won't accept the possibility of a 20-30% drop in housing over 18 months. You seem to think 10% is possible, so we are kind of arguing about semantics here. 

 I would call it more fundamentals then semantics. 

Your calling for a collapse, in some iteration. 

I am forecasting market adjustments, with consolidations. Some market specific areas will of course have larger variations then others, both upward and downward, as has always been the case and always will be, only peoples attention and knowledge of such change. 

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

 all I am calling for is a 20-30% drop by end of 2023. I don't care what the proper definition of that is. I don't think real estate holders care either. Once we get the drop, it will be stagflation for a while. 

 Yes but thats the point. Even the markets dropping from the peak like San Jose. Are not seeing tat kind of drop. With all the global markets shift expect fed to slow a bit if not halt temporarily. And the reality is even San Jose is up year over year 1.2%. So seeing 20-30% drop is just not in the cards: 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

The Black Swan would be from the 'bond market crash' that's already happening today.

The big question: what happens after bond market crashes? will it affect real estate?

The big question comes back to the Fed. Are they willing to crash the global economy? it's looking like the global economy will break before the US does. So do they back off and hope the global downturn + paired with the jobs losses coming is enough to slow/stop inflation? 

If they are willing to break the global economy though. All bets are off on where those dominos fall. I just never thought that far. 

 Global economy has a heck of a lot more going on right now then the U.S. housing market or U.S. inflation. In a global perspective, the U.S. economy is a drop in the bucket compared to all they have going on. 

Europe is dealing with an energy crisis right now, a major pipeline cut with no prospects on how or when to repair as it's kind of in/near an active war zone.     Not to mention we have a multitude of countries in Europe in war preparations of their own, out of fear of the unknown. One can argue "it's just the Baltics" but were talking Finland, Poland in the immediacy and Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands in the tertiary.    As well as an entire Europe in striking distance of ICBMs, and questioning just how far along is Rus development of hypersonic capabilities of such. 

That's just 1 of the monkeys on Europe's shoulder at the moment. We have Brexit which seems to never end or come to any finality, we have upheaval in the UK, France now has issues with protectorates that just had a coupe this weekend. 

The world is a trainwreck, the U.S. is just 1 car in that whole wreckage at the moment. 

Not to mention a epic foot shortage in process via the Ukraine conflict in process. 

We had India and China brawling it out in the Cashmere like it 1750, very literally using clubs and hand-2-hand combat, that's all still tense. Let's see, China getting ready to go full out in Asia, Japan gearing up to brawl. Pick your hot mess. Saudi Arabia is still got fun-in-the-sun with Yemen, that has not changed only focus and attention of such. Irans ready to kill everyone, Israel doing some strikes on Syria. Turkey ready to invade parts of Syria and Iraq. Armenia and Azerbaijan getting hot again. 

I am only surprised at how mellow global markets are doing because at this point, good luck finding what is safe and stable. Aside from shares in bullet manufacturing. Bullets, bombs and bandages. That's about the only sure investment at this time. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Matt Kalish:

 that is pretty wild. 6% appraisal job in 2 months. usually it takes a while for the banks and appraisers to adjust. My guess is the banks are getting worried right now. There very well may be a liquidity issue coming up soon.

 Not surprised. 

There was a sizable event that recently happened in the world of appraisal where some people are trying to sue there appraiser for giving them there appraisals, basiclly having buyers remorse and trying to use the appraiser as a sacrificial lamb. Since this recent event, appraisals vary wildly appraiser too appraiser. Some have really tightened the belt and are trying to do things as conservative as possible, even to point of under appraise if have to. 

Then there is the obvious fact that anyone who does R.E. FT will know, appraiser too appraiser things very a lot, same as inspector too inspector. If you have never had to argue a bad appraisal, well your not in R.E. on any scale or regularity. It happens all the time. 

I just closed one and appraisal came back almost $20k higher then what we were looking for or expecting. Does that mean the market is on a rocket to the moon again? I think it has a lot more to do with that appraiser. 

I have an MAI on staff to do in-house reviews. We see it all the time that she reviews an appraisal and hear from her office "what the..... where's the..." then she comes and asks what clown did the appraisal, lol. I don't consider any appraiser worth a squat until they are MAI or have commercial appraisal under the belt. Those who are just residential, massive difference from the two above, MASSIVE. 

So from the info I say it doesn't mean anything, also because we have NOT seen a 6% decline in market. We still have units moving measured in hours/ days, it's not the insanity of 20 offers 20% above list in first 2 days, but full price+ is still the norm in 10 days or less. 

Hey, your so dead set it's a market crash, ok, sell me your properties. I will buy ALL of them, now. Or, do you not own any investment properties? 

I’ll sell you my “equity” based on peak values. We can let it expire end of 2023. I’d like a buyout option if the fed pivots and reinflates the bubble (definitely not ruling that out). Find an escrow that will invest in 1 year treasury at around 4 percent. I highly doubt you have the cash to buyout my equity, but if you do, PM me and we can make arrangements. I wont sell the asset to you because the income I generate on my properties is too substantial. I don’t care about losing 20-30 percent phantom equity, I use the cash flow to stack cash, and when prices drop further I’ll buy more. Since you went there with me (questioning my investments), I have to say, after seeing your website, you only have 4 listings and they are all monthly rentals? Your going to need more than just commission on LTR to buy my equity. And you are not even getting asking price…what’s this…..this you??? 7 percent price cut on a rental? I’m sure this is just an expert strategy by you though, I’m sure you had 40 applicants within first week then you cut the price to get a bidding war!  

very convenient it’s a “7 percent” drop which is what the appraisal came back with over a 2 month window on an investor I know in Minneapolis. 

Don’t worry Sir James, I still like you buddy. Apart from being wrong on this topic, you make some really entertaining posts!

 Joe I have you blocked, and for good reason you weird stalker! I have no idea WTF your rambling about; sell me your equity but your gonna hold the property? Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? 

And not getting market rents? Again, WTF are you talking about? You annoying moronic children trolling away. 

I have half a dozen transaction going on right now, not to mention the existing portfolio carried, the assorted off-market business. Good job, you looked at my available unit rental listings, congratulations, you nearly have a clue. 

And if your inventing price movements because of how things view to you vs Zillow zestimates, Lol, again that's a "you" thing on the ignorance scale buddy. News flash, zillow is not an appraisal system, nor is it accurate, it's a ball-park "guesstimate" and depending on what factors it's grabbing it can be close to correct, high, low etc..     

Lol, by the way, for all out there, notice the sold price for this house? $169k. Notice that rent? $2,500. Yeah, "oh no, we will have to take a discount of getting only $2,500mnth on a $169k property" lol. 
And yes, doing an initial listing for first 4-odd days at a ridiculous price of, let's say $2,700, to then "update" a listing price downward to where you actually want to be, say $2,500, yes it IS a strategy of Price Conditioning. 
I call it the "Kohl's Factor". If don't know, Kohl's is a wildly popular retail store that has a perpetual sale going on. People come in and commonly geek out say "OMG look at this, it's 20% off, we gotta get this $80 waffle maker, it's 20% off!". 
It's the sale factor that drives people like nut's to jump on paying a price that if marked regularly, they'd blow it off, probably mentioning how it's too much. 
Marking things up to purposefully mark it down to drive velocity of actions. 

Jimbo, If you buy the equity, it means you can have any further price gains in excess of the current equity. It's a great deal, I'll even give you a 5% credit adjustment to get you started. I know about the strategy you speak of, but the way you have been talking about how there is no inventory, I would expect that whatever price shows up on your morning "dart throw" board, a willing and able customer surely should have took you up on it. I apologize, I should have known someone like yourself strictly primarily does "off-market" deals, my apologies. I never said anything about Zillow, I was merely mentioning the price cut. Please keep us posted what that rents for, it might be the bellwether for your market there.

Tenants are consumers, and to best interact in a B2C action is to engage in prevailing consumer psychology. At least, that's my opinion of it, and they way I have done it for years, and find maximum success. Especially when dealing with above utilitarian price points. My team does pretty darn good beating the market averages, and I believe much credit is to our system for such, engagement in such consumer psychology actions. 

I don't really seek out to do so much off-market action but it does tend to lean heavily in that arena, by chance of it all. Look, I'm not a standard retail agent, I'm not, heck look at my name, it's "The REI Realtor", not the 1st time home buyer realtor, not the water-front realtor, I am "The REI Realtor", and a lot of REI lives and happens off-market, just the nature of the beast. I do have some MLS listed properties right now though.

As to equity buy, sounds fine and dandy but that's not what I do, I buy assets, I am an ASSET Investor. I do very little speculative investing. My stocks, heavily dividend plays. I would not invest in nothing, I buy assets. What your referencing is a kind of short, your asking me to short your property. I am not much of an options investor, again, I am an asset investor. Everything I own, I have a belief and faith in the asset itself, control, use and monetization of such. It's a solid game plan of wealth for the last few thousand years. 

If I wanted to get into options, I'd just go around and hit-up every MFH Investor I know to place an option on there properties. Options investing is all about the spread, would have to be sizable enough spread potential to make it worth the burn rate in placing the options. And for some reason I am hearing a lot of chatter that people think MFH is a "safe" place to go in this inflation environment, lol, just pumping up that balloon a bit more.

fair enough, you can see why I would not want to sell my asset since it is producing cash flow for me. I understand why you wouldn't want to speculate in options on it. I do agree MFH is going to hold up well through this period. We tend to agree on over 90%, but you just won't accept the possibility of a 20-30% drop in housing over 18 months. You seem to think 10% is possible, so we are kind of arguing about semantics here. 

 I would call it more fundamentals then semantics. 

Your calling for a collapse, in some iteration. 

I am forecasting market adjustments, with consolidations. Some market specific areas will of course have larger variations then others, both upward and downward, as has always been the case and always will be, only peoples attention and knowledge of such change. 

On a national level, on national average, I forecast pricing compression and stagflation, with the additional forecast of a "black-swan" event soon coming. Namely, something done by political powers to empower greater purchasing and/or development of housing units, something on mass scale. There is a few ways such could flesh out. Could be normalization of 40/50yr mortgage, could be actions to reduce regulator actions for entrance of rental units into sec8 and then declare refusal to accept sec8 payments as "discrimination in housing", thus adding however many millions of units to the sec8 supply through force. Tax credits are an almost certainty but I don't see opportunity of this at scale needed and those projects are too much time delay from point of action to result on the market.     Something to really fluff things up to garner support for votes, and it will have to be mostly executive powers related as anything going through congress will provide to many opportunities to die or delay.     Actually, may be a good political strategy of introducing such into congress, knowing it will die, just to get that position, and then utilizing executive powers to really brand selves as the hero's of the day. 

Then again, if the "black-swan" Grandaddy of all comes, War, well all bet's are off. War is a "Twilight Zone" of economics where things work differently. 

 all I am calling for is a 20-30% drop by end of 2023. I don't care what the proper definition of that is. I don't think real estate holders care either. Once we get the drop, it will be stagflation for a while. 

 Yes but thats the point. Even the markets dropping from the peak like San Jose. Are not seeing tat kind of drop. With all the global markets shift expect fed to slow a bit if not halt temporarily. And the reality is even San Jose is up year over year 1.2%. So seeing 20-30% drop is just not in the cards: 

Markets like San Diego are already seeing price declines upwards of 13%. It's still very early... let's see where we are in Dec/ Jan and the impacts of current rates can be felt. 

A little over a month ago you could still get a 5% rate with 0 points. The rates were high then (compared to what they were prior), but were still workable for many folks. The modest price declines that we're seeing now are reflecting the rates of 2-4 months ago (4's-5's).

Now that we're up around 7% (and expected to climb) it's a completely different story. We're going to see the impact of 7% rates over the next few months.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

 all I am calling for is a 20-30% drop by end of 2023. I don't care what the proper definition of that is. I don't think real estate holders care either. Once we get the drop, it will be stagflation for a while. 

 Yes but thats the point. Even the markets dropping from the peak like San Jose. Are not seeing tat kind of drop. With all the global markets shift expect fed to slow a bit if not halt temporarily. And the reality is even San Jose is up year over year 1.2%. So seeing 20-30% drop is just not in the cards: 

Actually, if we just use the 6-7% smoothed annual appreciation in CA--FROM THE LAST 14 YEARS, there's still no market crash.
What happened in 2021 is an abnormal market where appreciation is crossing 2-3 standard deviation price level.
FOMO buyer is bidding home over 200k-400k, which will disturb the market prices.

In 2022 it goes back to the normal 6-7% appreciation line. 

3% is inflation rate, so it's normal for US market to appreciate double than inflation rate.
But If we expect 30% more drop from today, it will move the chart close to 3% inflation rate, which is almost nearly impossible.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

The big question comes back to the Fed. Are they willing to crash the global economy? it's looking like the global economy will break before the US does. So do they back off and hope the global downturn + paired with the jobs losses coming is enough to slow/stop inflation? 

If they are willing to break the global economy though. All bets are off on where those dominos fall. I just never thought that far. 

Yes. So far it seems The Fed will leave their Anglo-Saxon friends alone.

While for Asia, countries that are positive in Balance Trade surplus (good positive export), actually make more money now due to the booming of commodity market and their weak currency.

The bond market is very funny, never before has the yield between developing countries lower than in the developed country. 

But if tomorrow all European countries decide to use Euro or pound to buy Oil, then the USD value may be cut in half.

 Even the Asian countries aren't all positive though. China is getting killed right now (lot of that is real estate and internal) but overall its messy. hoping fed slows a bit as I know plenty of fortune companies planning lay offs q4 - but will be interesting to say the least. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 Even the Asian countries aren't all positive though. China is getting killed right now (lot of that is real estate and internal) but overall its messy. hoping fed slows a bit as I know plenty of fortune companies planning lay offs q4 - but will be interesting to say the least. 

There's news that PBOC going to dump Dollar this week. So does UK and investment banks.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

At what percentage drop is it not considered an "adjustment"??? 20% over 18 months still an adjustment? 50% over 2 years? I don't think anyone will care about the semantics of it when housing drops 20-30%

I think James keeps saying there's no crash because his market is really doing well, all recently sold houses are still reaching an all-time high, I checked the latest house sold in Zillow from 3550 Fremont Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55408 to 5726 Bryant Ave S they all have good price and no price adjustment.

Since nobody is really buying "national" home price is argument is making sense as well. 

The next test would be Dec this year, is the market going to have 'full market crash' or continue 'partial price adjustment' like today ??

 50% over 2 years is not a "crash". Yes, it's a lot of change, still, it's not a crash. 

Think of it in terms of a automobile, what is a "crash"? It's a sudden, massive change, generally from unforeseen factors. A deer runs out, "holly-hell", you hit the brakes, "POW" the car is massively changed, to the lessor, in the blink of an eye. We call that a "crash". 

The term "crash" is exactly that, a massive change in a sudden event. The word is what the word is, again, nobody get's to reassign the English language. 

A 50% change in home prices over 2 years is generally a market re-pricing. And let's be honest, any notion of such actually happening is ridiculous to say the least, because were talking a change to material and labor costs that have very literally never happened in the entire history of the U.S.. Feel free to dig into the data and find me a time that median wages went backwards 50%. 

A market Adjustment is, generally speaking, pricing adjustments in the range of up to 10%. These occur over a duration of time, measured in months. As I have said countless times, there WILL BE market specific adjustments in greater and lessor deviations. SF bay is a great example, that place is primed for a much larger deviation in changes BUT ALSO look at there run-up as well, it was equally much more. AND as I have noted, the difference from replacement cost has the largest cap when we remove land factor, keeping replacement on the structure itself, thus being able to view the value factor of the land alone. 

Land is where the greatest adjustments will be seen, not in structures. 

So, in markets where overall sales values are closer aligned to the utilitarian factor of replacement cost of unit, such as Ohio, of an Iowa for example, lessor adjustments will come. You take your CA homes, where we see some of the biggest gaps in this factor nationally speaking, yup, expect the bigger deviations. 

Also, watch for "insulated" markets to be, well, "insulated". For example certain neighborhoods in D.C., investors in those areas will know exactly what I am speaking about here. 

The midwest is famous in intuitional investing circles as "good ole reliable" and I don't see any change to this standing. Pricing generally more closely follows the utilitarian cost points vs perceptual thus, muting such big swings. 

Again..... again, again, again...... The conversation is one of MARKET WIDE, as in NATIONAL Real Estate market "crash". So I speak specifically to a National median/average etc.. and On that National line, no, NO 20%+ "crash" of Real Estate.     I don't know how I can get more clear and defined.  Yes, 100%, there will be market specific variances, there always is. yes, some village in Alaska might rocket 90%, some area in L.A. could drop 90%, again for the countless times these are market specific variances, we are talking a NATIONAL number/%. 

I for long time have been calling out CA as having a significant time of pain soon coming. The net outflow of persons from CA is substantial, it is. And stage is set for major infrastructure issue that could really spur an even more rapid exodus. That outflow could spur a net unit glut of properties and THAT, a unit GLUT, that is a key necessity to get rapidly descending R.E. prices because it facilitates prices going SUB replacement cost value. 

It's really hard, I dare say impossible, to get a collapse/crash of real estate when there is not enough real estate. If Johnny has 10 apples, and 20 people want apples, how low will the price of Johnnys apples go? Yeah, kind of elementary.    And guess what, just because 10 of the 20 can't afford what Johnny is charging, it does not matter because Johnny only has 10 apples, he only cares what 10 can pay. Johnny doe snot need 20 buyers, just 10.