Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Tim Ryan]

Yeah a correction coming for sure. Isn't that exciting?  If you bought right with fixed rates and full amortizations and have a good tenant base, then you don't need to worry about what you hold (I'm not with my properties).  But, the opportunity on its way to pick up new properties will be tremendous and possibly the greatest wealth building event in real estate ever. Get ready ;)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

@Luka Milicevic

Problem is, that 2% loves this system, it's working great for them. And, they unfortunately own the air pump, thanks to our inaction. Hell, they own the whole damn service station. The leak benefits them. 

This cycle will never change until the fundamental principles are changed. 

>>
There's very good explanation in ZH and it's almost similar to what you suggested :
 
...

Finally, Jane Edmondson, CEO of EQM Capital summarized the precarious situation:

....so basically, the inflation is partially created by the Fed also when they hike the rate now haha LOL ...the oil price already went down and Fed said it's not enough.  Obviously, landlord can not reduce the rent when Fed raises the rate. It's like a loop.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

....so basically, the inflation is partially created by the Fed also when they hike the rate now haha LOL ...the oil price already went down and Fed said it's not enough.  Obviously, landlord can not reduce the rent when Fed raises the rate. It's like a loop.

Good take Carlos, and don't forget that the oil prices are down not because of natural market moves, but have been artificially forced down.....

[JD Martin]

This has turned into a pretty interesting thread. Just a reminder to keep it going by leaving Trump and Biden and democrats and republicans out of your narrative. You can discuss policies but not give your opinions of the parties that promoted or supported them. No political debate is allowed here, not even coded or back door insults at the guys you don't like. 

OK mod hat off, some random thoughts:

1. Too much money in circulation for sure. We need monetary velocity but not so much monetary supply.

2. Cancelling student loans will probably exacerbate inflation at least to some extent. I saw on the news tonight that 43 million people are eligible. At $10k each that's 430 billion dollars of relief. Assuming at least some of that money is awarded to servicers, that's a pretty big injection. 

3. It's somewhat ironic watching leverage proponents complain about the availability of money 🤑

4. "Free trade" was always a farce and most everyone of both parties knew it. The question was this: will exporting some of the US wealth to poor nations make the planet overall a better place? Hard to say. No serious wars for almost 80 years is pretty compelling. On the other hand, there's plenty of rivals to the US and perhaps the planet was better off with one philosopher -king (the US) instead of several rivals who may not be anywhere near as benevolent (China, Russia, etc). 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Will Barnard:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Will Barnard:

Although in every recent year, Cal experiences a net population loss....you can tweak the number s any way you like, but they are the numbers.....

(From Cal Matters, a non-partisan news org. Bold is mine)

“California appears to be on the verge of a new demographic era, one in which population declines characterize the state,” PPIC demographer Hans Johnson writes in a new analysis. “Lower levels of international migration, declining birth rates, and increases in deaths all play a role. But the primary driver of the state’s population loss over the past couple years has been the result of California residents moving to other states.”

 

 And now interest rate is 6%, this post is becoming even more important.

I remember someone in BP posted a month ago that NAHB predicts interest rate in 2022/2023 is 6%. Now it's the reality. We don't know what would happen with rate so crazy like this. 

Refinance is totally dead now. People doesn't want to sell their home. Home Depot started laying off people.

 Carlos, you totally missed this EPIC data point which 100% clarifies there is NO collapse threat going on! Refi's have dropped almost 90%! If there was any "collapse" risk going on refi's would be UP, not down, people would be converting equity too $$$$ to make payments, right. 

So what does a near 90% drop in refi's say? That people DON'T need the $$$$, right. 

So not only do people NOT need the $$$$, there also sitting on that nice "piggy-bank" of $$$$ called equity. 

What we are experiencing in the market is called STAGFLATION, not collapse, not recession, STAGFLATION.     And yeah, I have been forecasting this for some considerable time, as i predicted google it, there is a chorus of industry "captains" now declaring the same; STAGFLATION. It's here, it's a reality, and it's NOT collapse.

High prices, low volume. STAGFLATION. 

 I wanted to point out my opinion on the refi market. You are stating that Regis dropped by 90% because people don’t need to turn equity into cash because they already have it. I am not sure that is the true reason. I would say that it is because only fools would refi a sub 3 or even a sub 5 interest rate to pull cash to then raise their rate to 6+%. Refis are dead because those with lower rates will hold on to them for dear life!

 The main premise in this posting is arguing housing is now, beginning, or about to "crash". 

I agree, to refi at the rates as they are now is very foolish, but, "if" there were a "collapse" happening in housing, a mass foreclosure event in process, rates could be 17% and people would be doing refi's because they have to. When choice is loose your home, or tap equity at whatever rates are, you refi. 

The epic low rate of refi's is evidence of capacity to carry mortgages. It is. And, evidence against a collapse via mass foreclosures. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @JD Martin:

The question was this: will exporting some of the US wealth to poor nations make the planet overall a better place? Hard to say. No serious wars for almost 80 years is pretty compelling. 

Well that's only one way of looking at it, isn't it? Exporting our earned wealth is corrupt and immoral in and of itself. And much of it never ends up where it was meant to go anyway.

No serious wars for 80 years is solely due to the US establishing such a dominant military that no one wants to F with us. Period.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

 The main premise in this posting is arguing housing is now, beginning, or about to "crash". 

Powell yesterday clearly said he wants to see the correction (aka crash) in the housing market.

I think he answered directly for this forum LOL :) :)

[JD Martin]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @JD Martin:

The question was this: will exporting some of the US wealth to poor nations make the planet overall a better place? Hard to say. No serious wars for almost 80 years is pretty compelling. 

Well that's only one way of looking at it, isn't it? Exporting our earned wealth is corrupt and immoral in and of itself. And much of it never ends up where it was meant to go anyway.

No serious wars for 80 years is solely due to the US establishing such a dominant military that no one wants to F with us. Period.

 I wasn't really make a judgement call on it so much as just presenting the issue. I don't even disagree with you regarding the exporting of our wealth, though legitimate arguments could also be made that much of it was immorally co-opted from others - but that will get us into a political discussion which we cannot have here. 

As for wars, I didn't mean wars of us vs. someone else, I meant wars of someone else vs. someone else. Economic stability generally decreases the likelihood of armed combat, the same way top-heavy societies often find themselves in revolutions (France, Russia). 

[J. Mitchell Bernier]

Why a "Crash" is unlikely, 

1) Housing Supply is still at or below 40% of the historical norms across the country 

2) Crashes require desperate sellers, and right now with most mortgage rates below 5% and unemployment still below 5%, no one is desperate

3) Loose lending is not and did not happen. I have worked for three community banks over the past 6 years and every board member remembers what it was like back in 05-07 and are keen to make sure that it didn't happen again. 

Why a "Correction" is likely, 

1) The FED is going to raise rates until inflation stops and Chairman Powell even said at the press conference that housing needs a correction. 

2) Banks are becoming more restrictive as the risk premium on loans compared to the bond market has swayed in favor of bonds. If the bank can make their yield spread on buying a no risk treasury bonds, why do loans with much higher risk? Less lending means, less buyers

3) The monthly payment on a median home price in percentage of income is close to 40% now. Most banks require a total DTI of less than 43% and less than 30% on your mortgage.

A "Crash" of 20% or more is unlikely, a "Correction" of 10% or less seems likely. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @JD Martin:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @JD Martin:

The question was this: will exporting some of the US wealth to poor nations make the planet overall a better place? Hard to say. No serious wars for almost 80 years is pretty compelling. 

Well that's only one way of looking at it, isn't it? Exporting our earned wealth is corrupt and immoral in and of itself. And much of it never ends up where it was meant to go anyway.

No serious wars for 80 years is solely due to the US establishing such a dominant military that no one wants to F with us. Period.

 I wasn't really make a judgement call on it so much as just presenting the issue. I don't even disagree with you regarding the exporting of our wealth, though legitimate arguments could also be made that much of it was immorally co-opted from others - but that will get us into a political discussion which we cannot have here. 

As for wars, I didn't mean wars of us vs. someone else, I meant wars of someone else vs. someone else. Economic stability generally decreases the likelihood of armed combat, the same way top-heavy societies often find themselves in revolutions (France, Russia). 

 JD - Gotcha! Even when we disagree, we agree...... ;-)

[Joanne Tsai]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David Song:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @David Song:

@Greg R.

Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com

Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.

Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.

The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere. 

Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness. 

 Foolishness   little harsh dont you think ?   

Apologies if that came off as harsh. My point is that when "know-it-alls" screw up and make a foolish move, they have too much pride and ego to come clean - hence we never hear from them. And I'm not referring to you or anyone specific. 

Obviously not all flippers who purchased in Q1 lost their shirt, but a lot of them did. Don't expect any to come forward with their hands raised admitting it. 

 At least in SF Bay Area, I have seen multiple flips gone wrong, at 1m to 3 m price point. One guy bought a property across the street from one of my rental for 968k, complete gutted the house and listed for 1.8-1.9 m a few months ago. It did not move. I went inside and it looked pretty nice. If he listed in Q1, he can easily sell for 1.8-1.9 m range. Now, he can not get 1.5m. Location, San Mateo, ca.

There are many more such flips that will not be known to average people. Actual investors are feeling pain. That is simply a fact. Denial will not help.

 Some of these flippers are not good economic readers or they're just simply unlucky.

1) We knew from 2021 that Fed going to reverse QE in 2022. They started reserving QE on Jan 2, 2022.
2) Russia attacked Ukraine on Feb 27, 2022. Commodity skyrocketed and 10-year note reached new high a week later.
It's a perfect storm to melt-up the MBS market.

If the flipper bought in Q4 2021 they will see this problem.
Actually flipper in Bay area is losing money also in 2019 when Fed reduces QE.

Reading macro economy is actually more important than reading biggerpocket how much the cost a plumber, as if one can timing the market correctly , they can make good investment and avoid turbulent (not market crash) market. 

If one refinances their house with 2% rate in 2020-2021 ; you are all good for 30 years and this market crash is just a blip in history.

btw if you use statistic from Zillow H.I. There's still no crash, only flat market nationwide. There are huge price reductions where there's oversupply like NV and AZ. Most CF market is weak but nothing crashed. Even Hawaii property is still appreciating higher than Bay Area. lol...

What's actually scary is the latest Fed Chairman seems to be okay for people to lose jobs and unemployment started rising as long as they can kill inflation. 

why is that scary? it's a normal free market phenomena, no? people get greedy and spoiled, refusing to go back to office and just expecting the pandemic luxury when the pandemic is over. Some company should go bankrupt because they only exist due to cheap money. Food is 20% higher than a year before, killing inflation should be Fed's number 1 goal. Some people would get hurt, of course, but when we keep propping up the market, everyone gets hurt. No productivity growth should lead to 0 wage growth.   

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @J. Mitchell Bernier:

3) The monthly payment on a median home price in percentage of income is close to 40% now. Most banks require a total DTI of less than 43% and less than 30% on your mortgage.

A "Crash" of 20% or more is unlikely, a "Correction" of 10% or less seems likely. 

- Regarding mortgage payment, I found some more data: average downpayment is around 12-14%. But people DTI is now reaching 40% !!

- If I read the Fed statement correctly yesterday, a crash of 10-20% is quite likely since The Fed would not do "inverse v" where they will cut rate soon but they will do "/--\" pattern where high Fund rate of 4-4.5% will stay there in the whole 2023. They will only cut back to 2.5% after 2025. I guess the next 24 months would be hard for investors and especially FTHB.

[John Myers]

@James Hamling

It seems like you think the problem is a revenue problem for the government. That is wrong, the US government has a spending problem not a revenue problem.

The biggest problem right now is all of the money printing. See my previous post about the expansion of the M1 & M2 money supply. The past few years are unprecedented in terms of money printing. Neither party in the US government gives a sh** about controlling spending.

The US government printed money like crazy and they knew the consequences. Now the economy and its citizens will pay the price!

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @John Myers:

The biggest problem right now is all of the money printing. See my previous post about the expansion of the M1 & M2 money supply. The past few years are unprecedented in terms of money printing. Neither party in the US government gives a sh** about controlling spending.

The US government printed money like crazy and they knew the consequences. Now the economy and its citizens will pay the price!

Yep, you nailed it!

[Carlos Ptriawan]

why is that scary? it's a normal free market phenomena, no?

There's no such thing as true free market, everything is beautifully designed by the Fed and gov. , they will decide who will be rich who is not. LOL Now they want Elon Musk to be richer (moving from oil to EV) and also the energy tycoon is making more money this year alone.

Why rising unemployment is not scary ? Have you ever gotten laid off from your job because your company no longer exist ?

[Scott Mac]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

I don’t care if it crashes or not. I’m still buying a steep discounts 

 if it crash's your not going to get rent what will you do then.. a lot of BP folks started investing after the GFC and have no clue that many markets vacancies skied to 30 40% with some properties 100% vacant how long can you last with significant vacancies ?  we dont want a crash it crush's landlords along with everyone else. 

07 was nothing compared to the early 90's (except in No.Cal which seemed to ride it out pretty well).

It will definitely test your skills as a rental "Business Owner", because in some areas (at some times) your "business as usual" will result in shooting yourself in the foot.

Class C and B tend to have issues.

Class C hit and miss regarding stable income renters, and longer turns.

Class B same as C, but more renters than normal packed into units--unnoticed by management if you want to collect rent--hard times friends and relatives in the unit-undocumented on lease. I've seen 13 in a 2 bed 2 bath--all adults. Expect relatives to live in campers in driveway and/or to live in the garage's of SFH's. Possibly lower rents.

Class A lower rents than anticipated, more turnover than anticipated, more people packed into units secretly and some openly.

All Classes expect move outs to be the most costly of evictions, and be happy when they are not.

Class D, well drug dealing income and Section-8 income just keep trucking on in, and it's business as usual--in the tougher parts of the city. 

No jobs to lose, different sources of income than working W2 for many.

When the interest rates exceed the Cap Rates, some real estate investing will stop.

When people lose portfolios to the lenders, some real estate investing will stop.

When the cash in the economy mysteriously drys up (people have none of it when needed for basics for life), some real estate investing will stop. 

That's not even taking into account the looses the Stock Speculators take.

That's when the "Powder Dry" "Keep my feathered numbered for just such an occasion" people come in looking for "Deals" on the cheap.

Lets see how the Fannie Large Multi-family loans go--they are supposed to be "Toughened" against this scenario compared to the last crash by added requirements. If they fall out, maybe the Fed Govt should not be in the loan guarantee business, and just let the market set the terms.

Watch job loses and company closings--that tends to be a good indicator of things to come. National store closings, outsourcing tons of jobs, etc..

ie, Circuit City closing all locations, Wang shutting down all operations and disappearing, etc..

Just my 2 cents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9dF5xuJBbM

[Joanne Tsai]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Why rising unemployment is not scary ? Have you ever gotten laid off from your job because your company no longer exist ?

Well, they hate Musk to guts, and even he said to pump more oil domestically. 

I tend to work hard and not complain much, so no. And yes, when one is on W2, one expects to be taken care of (according to Rich Dad) and someone controls your destiny, I know I am dispensable. My husband has his own business, and we strive to be competitive so we don't go out of business.  
  

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 The main premise in this posting is arguing housing is now, beginning, or about to "crash". 

Powell yesterday clearly said he wants to see the correction (aka crash) in the housing market.

I think he answered directly for this forum LOL :) :)

 No, I am sure when Powell said correction, he meant correction, as last I checked English was his 1st language. 

I have a feeling if he said he wanted to see more seeds on his bagel, many would say "see, SEE, he's pushing for a CRASH, it's code words"....... 

FYI, a "crash" would mean LESS, not more net units available as building would stop on a dime. ALSO it would mean LESS affordability for homes, not more, as it would mean economic "crash" which means less jobs, less income, less disposable income, less affordability. 

So if we want to read between the lines, "correction" would more-so mean MORE income for MORE affordability by MORE people with MORE building to meet the net unit shortage. Not crash, if anything, a bull-run. 

This has become a "R.E.-Crash-Derangement-Syndrome". Apparently any sneeze, any anything "ohh oohhh oooohhhh, it's a crash, gonna crash, crash coming, crash crash CRASH".     It's exhausting, how many months must it NOT come to pass before people start waking up that it's NOT 2007. 

[Will Barnard]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

@James Hamling take an macroeconomics 101 class. 

I enjoy your posts and generally agree, Aaron..... but people using 'more schooling' to suggest that someone else will learn more (what you want them to learn)  is flawed thinking.  

A lot of the alleged 'scholars' on this planet are how we get into these messes. High IQ's and zero common sense.....and their thoughts are generally theories anyway.

There is more combined wisdom on this forum than most Ivy League faculties without a doubt.... :-)

Not only would I agree with Bruce on the above 100%, I would agree 1000 PERCENT. Case in point, just look at those who run the Fed and just about every high seated politician - college degrees and zero brains when it comes to common sense. I don’t need a college degree or even a high school diploma to see clearly that the government reacts (and always very late) instead of planning ahead. A simple fact and example hat everyone has personal experience with in any large city is our freeways. We keep adding population, more cars, and more traffic but the government fails at reading the growth that sits right in front of their face to build more roads and highways. When they finally act, they take 12-15 years to get the job done and by that time, the population/traffic has already grown to fill the added lane, road or highway. It sucks but they keep repeating this and using ideas from 100 years ago and applying them today without any insight to new fresh ideas for todays world. Only one word comes to mind for this: MORONS

[Louis Martinez]

@Greg R. I remember being a first-time buyer in 2010 and looking at houses that were 90k construction in the 90s and where now 300-400k in the Mid-Atlantic..so seems there never is a "correction" there is just present price reality. There's always some inflation so prices go up. Just the way I see it.

[Bruce Woodruff]

What @Will Barnard said! Unbelievable......but then we do get the Govt we vote for, eh?

Just as they overspend like crazy and when that catches up to them, it's always "hey we don't have enough money people, we gotta raise taxes, do your duty, be patriotic, c'mon now"   They actually don't realize that they have a spending problem, nit a revenue problem.

I've always thought that before you can become a politician, you should have to start and run your own business for a few years....but what do I know...?

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Myers:

@James Hamling

It seems like you think the problem is a revenue problem for the government. That is wrong, the US government has a spending problem not a revenue problem.

The biggest problem right now is all of the money printing. See my previous post about the expansion of the M1 & M2 money supply. The past few years are unprecedented in terms of money printing. Neither party in the US government gives a sh** about controlling spending.

The US government printed money like crazy and they knew the consequences. Now the economy and its citizens will pay the price!

 Lol no, you need to actually read what I write not scan it for take-aways. 

The FLOW of money is the core central problem. 

There is a "black-hole" that money in the economic eco-system keeps siphoning off into. THAT'S the problem. 

The economy, or "FLOW" of of $$$$ in the economy is supposed to be cyclical, moving and traveling round and round. "Leaking" capital at the rate it is, concentrating into the "black-hole" it is going is a major problem and it's why rate increases won't fix anything. 

This core central problem of the $$$$ in the system siphoning off is WHY the Gov. has to keep INJECTING $$$$ into the system. Even look at the words they use, they specifically say they NEED to INJECT $$$$ into the system or it's at risk of stalling out. 

That injection of $$$$, is resulting in inflation, BUT, it's not the cause. yes, in a very narrow limited vision it's the cause, just like one could say not hitting breaks on a car is the reason for an auto accident, without a mention of the fact the driver was unconscious hence not able to hit breaks. BUT I say WHY do they need to inject $$$$, THAT is the REAL root cause, and source of the problem. 

As long as $$$$ keeps siphoning off into an abyss, there will constantly be this starvation of the economy for $$$$, pressing demand for more and more and MORE $$$$, which just keeps driving more and more and MORE inflation. 

Tax Code correction, while you may think it's just about Gov. revenue, notice I wrote it in manner to CLOSE that siphoning effect. Otherwise, you tell us how to close that "black-hole"?    Via tax-code, it can close that siphon, AND press to keep $$$$ in the "FLOW". 

By keeping $$$$ in the "FLOW", you remove the need for injecting $$$$. Remove the need for injecting $$$$, you eliminate inflation. You STOP kicking the can, the can is gone. 

And here is why there NOT taking action on this. The "black-hole" siphon happening, is a fast track into the bank accounts of just 2%. It's UBER concentration of $$$$, and the resulting power, control and influence from such.     Now, if your one of those 2% and on the receiving end, would you want it to stop? Lol, yeah, me neither, it's Christmas every day right!    And this is why so many of them have come out saying there all for redistribution of $$$$ before anything else, because that pipe-line will KEEP them wealthy beyond measure and any redistribution of $$$$, well no biggie because it's all going to come straight back to them. And yes, on-the-record there has been 2%'ers who have said exactly this. 

And talking about "Parties" in the U.S., that's just a collective of politicians. Why do you expect a cat to go play fetch in the yard? THERE CATS, I expect them to do exactly as they are. Politicians are professional's at being popular, that's it that's all. How many are Engineers, Economists? Yet, we the mass-idiots hire Professional hand-Shakers to run the biggest most complex economy on earth! Who's the idiot? Politicians are definitive "Homer Simpson", they have no freakin clue how any of it works, they do as there told that's it. 

Even if a Politician wanted to fix things, what are there qualification's for having any idea of what to do? Diddly and Squat. Oh but they could hire all the brilliant egg-heads to direct them, yup, sure could....... and how many have you seen doing this? Yeah, back to the twins Diddly and Squat. A person can say anything but only do 1 thing, actions speak so much more then words. Words are worthless, I only listen to there actions. Actions never lie. 

Buckle up John, as long as that "black-hole" bullet train of $$$$ heading straight too the 2% continues, so will $$$$ injections, "stimulus" and inflation. It will inflate until you own nothing, rent everything, and you'll like it...... At least that's what they keep telling us. 

[Angelo Argentieri]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

Ok, so I don't deny the amount of regs re: lending, but let's be honest. Good lenders are able to manipulate DTI and bend the numbers to get people into loans that they can barley afford. Let's not pretend that all the people who purchased in this over-inflated market are super stable and can't foreclose. I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

This is a great point as I know several folks who have recently purchase properties. I know their current pay, lifestyle, job stability, etc., and am nervous for them. The reason why is the job stability factor with the current and short-term economic instability. Will their interest rates spike due to an ARM, no. Will they lose employment and have what is left of savings eroded by inflation, yes. Will they not be able to afford their monthly debts, sadly most likely.

Will a few cards fall? They already have and will continue to. However, to call this a house of cards, is where I believe many will be too cautious during an opportunisitc time and they will regret it. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Man James, You keep nailing it....!  😆

[Thomas Smircic]

@Greg R.

Despite knowing better, I got caught up in the 2008 crash in St Petersburg Florida by all the self serving real estate "experts" and agents intoxicated with irrational hopium. Homes were appreciating at 20%+ and the average income in the area was 50k. The trend was blatantly unsustainable and unaffordable. It should have been obvious to all but the delusional but yet no one wanted to see it. Things are are but different this time and the outcome ain't be as bad but there will no doubt be a crash.