Please help with ARV!

[Mike T.]

First of all thanks to everyone who helps with this post. I am in month 2 of my first direct mail campaign. Today I had my first motivated call and would like some help on determining value.

I am in Tampa and the market is really rising fast in some areas. I do not want to get burned by buying too high, especially on my first deal. The location of this house is not in the optimal area for me. I have two different areas that are primed for population growth over the next 5-10 years. I know I can be more aggressive in these areas because if I am stuck with a rental, I am happy with the location.

I would prefer to buy and flip my first deal with my cash. But would probably stick it on MLS first and see if a hedge funds want to buy it.

Today I had a message from the children who inherited the house. They are in probate and said it was almost complete, they want to sell the house for 150,000 ASAP. They live in Michigan.

I know there a million questions I need to ask, but please help me figure ARV on following comps. All numbers are from MLS. The two most recent purchases do not show up on Zillow yet. This is a very small subdivision of 30 houses, all comps are within subdivision. All houses built in 91 and 92.

6/26/13 - 1460 sq ft, 3/2 Listed for 149,500 and sold FHA for 130,000. Pictures show very nice property, hardwood floor, granite in kitchen and stainless steel appliances.

6/21/13 - 1520 sq ft, 3/2 listed for 161,200 sold for 170,500 in two months. The house looks brand new in pictures. Again upgraded hardwoods, granite in bath and kitchen and stainless steel.

3/24/13 - 1244 sq ft, 3/2 - Paid 108,750 short sale, now listed for 1350 rent. Property is clean but has all original tile and kitchen.

Property for sale - 1345 sq ft, 3/2 not sure of condition but I know owner has lived in it since 1992. I am assuming it is not updated but children will say it is in great shape.

I know the first two properties have been rehabbed are fully upgraded. I can see they are also bigger, but there is a huge disparity with property 3. How would you work your 70% off these properties? Thanks for any suggestions.