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@Matthew Rosenbaugh I would talk to real estate agents or other investors in that area more experienced with the rental dynamics there. 7-12% usually is reasonable unless it is a super hot rental market or you are renting below market rate.
The problem with HOAs is usually they are run by a group of homeowners and they can arbitrarily raise the fee, or charge assessments, both of which you cannot forecast. You can reduce your risk by looking at the historical increases, and extrapolate.
There are a lot of things to think about!