first brrrr project. should i walk away?

[John Voychick]

After almost a year of studying, trying to get my feet wet on the first deal. We recently just pulled out of one where the inspection came back as a disaster.

Part of me just wants to get started on something but I'm not sure if I should pull the trigger or not.

ARV 105-110k

Asking 65k, originally thought we had it for 61k but apparently the seller never agreed on it and countered with 63k.

Closing costs will be around 2k.

A previous contractor estimated costs to be 28-30k but my agent [who has a good handle on the market] thinks we can do it between 20-25k.

Rent right now is $900 and been increasing.

So. Best case scenario 

ARV 110k

purchase 63k

closing costs 2k

reno cost 20k

Cash out refi as 75% has me at 82.5k. so we'd be in the right neighborhood.

I'm a little concerned if our reno ends up at 25 and ARV is only 105k, we would be left with 11k in the budget.

Is this to close to call? She we turn the page to something else? Or are these just rookie nerves from never doing this before?