Seeking advice on Speculation & Retirement Community investing

[Shannon Gordan]

I live in a planned community (suburb of D.C.) that has about 6000 homes (condos, townhomes, and SFHs). It is a mid/upper middle class area. The community is about 30 years old and has just voted in favor of building THs that have elevators and will be exclusively a retirement community (for ages 55+). Right now there is no housing available for the aging population of our community within our community (THs and SFHs have stairs and no elevators, the condos are small single-level starter homes). There will possibly be strong demand for these new-build retirement THs, and only a tiny supply (there will only be about 12 of them built), therefore possibly an investment opportunity if I can get in early. It occurred to me to buy one of the retirement THs as an investment property, rent it to retirees, and in the meantime let the imbalance of supply and demand force appreciation upwards, then 1031 the equity into something else later. I see the ultimate goal as being equity (rather than cashflow -- I don't mind breaking even every month, but I don't buy if I'll be operating in the red). I am familiar with investing in SFHs in A-class areas, however I'm unfamiliar with retirement community and speculation investing. I would appreciate advice on how to evaluate this opportunity. TIA!