4 Unit Apartment Complex Rental Analysis in Northern California

[John Cook]

Long time listener of BiggerPockets - finally decided to take the plunge and ask for feedback & analysis on the transaction below. Numbers are pro-forma done by me. Property is a 4 unit 2 bed/1 bathapartment complex in northern california. I want to preface this analysis by saying the entire building is vacant. Which is why i'm hesitant.

This is a flip from an investment firm which rebuild the complex. It's on a street lined with about 16 other similar shaped apartment complexes and it is by far the best looking/cleanest. 

Area - working class, across the street from a park, walking distance to a mall, across the street from an elementary school

Asking price: $389K

My area analysis concludes that I can charge $1000-$1150. Numbers below are $1000USD

Operating Expenses:

1) Repair allocation 15% of gross rent - $600
2) Property Management Firm - $150
3) Insurance - $97

Monthly NOI - $3153
Annual NOI - $37836

Financing:

1) Bank Note - $1763

Cash Flow:

Free Cash Flow Before Tax Monthly - $1390
Free Cash Flow Before Tax Annual - $16690

ROI:

Cash on Cash Return - 122.51%
Cap Rate - 9.73%
GCM - 7.82

I feel like these numbers are a little nebulous because the unit sits unoccupied as a result of the rehab. Just curious to get other people's opinion on this?  P.S. I've reviewed over 50 properties in this area and I can't find a single one that hits the 2% rule on gross income, this one barely clears 1% - any thoughts?